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Sweden's liberal pandemic strategy questioned as Stockholm death toll mounts

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dann said:
What are you talking about? Even if we look at per capita deaths (i.e. per million), we get this result:
Sweden: 176
USA: 129
Denmark: 64
Norway: 34

Sweden is now on the Top 10 of Covid-19 deaths.
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Deaths per millon (TV2, April 24, 2020)
Sweden: 214 (total 2,152)
USA: 152 (total 50,114)
Denmark: 70 (total 403)
Norway: 37 (total 199)
 
Är Sverige på väg mot en katastrof? (Aftonbladet.se, April 25, 2020)
Is Sweden headed for a disaster?


All kinds of graphs and curves comparing Sweden with countries like Spain, Italy and the USA - and towards the end with the other Nordic countries.
 
Har Island nedkæmpet coronavirus? Prognose viser nul smittede i slutningen af månedenhttps://nyheder.tv2.dk/udland/2020-...s-prognose-viser-nul-smittede-i-slutningen-af (TV2.dk, April 25, 2020)
Has Iceland defeated the coronavirus? Prognosis says nobody with infections by the end of this month

Iceland’s strategy has been 1) testing, 2) quarantine and self-isolation, 3) tracking down.
A taskforce of 60 managed to trace 92% of all cases. A large number of the people tested positive were people who had already been quarantined on suspicion alone.
For a couple of days, they have registered no new infections. And the vast majority of those infected have now recovered. See graphs in the article.

Tegnell: Enögt att enbart se till dödstalen (SVT.se, April 25, 2020)
Tegnell: One-eyed to look only at the number of deaths

Deaths per 100,000
Sweden: 214 (total 2,152)
USA: 158 (total 51,949)
Denmark: 70 (total 418)
Norway: 37 (total 199)
Finland: 32 (total 177)
Iceland: 30 (total 10)
 
Frontberetning fra Sverige: - Det er kaos (TV2.dk, April 25, 2020)
Report from the frontline in Sweden: - It’s chaos

Dr. Mike Ryan, Executive Director of the WHO's Health Emergencies Programs, said recently that a good benchmark is to have at least 10 negative cases for every one positive case confirmed. That means if a state or country carries out testing and comes back with positive cases of around 9% or under, then it's likely that it is testing well.
The US has a positive result rate of 18.8%, going by the COVID Tracking Project's figures cited by JHU.
(…)
France and Sweden are also performing tests below the WHO benchmark.
Lifting lockdowns safely relies on effective testing. Germany surges ahead, but US states are flying blind (CNN, April 25, 2020)
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I have taken some time today to research the situation in Belarus where we have heard that Uncle Luka has categorized this as a "mass psychosis". Numbers of infected seem to grow in recent days from a low basis while they do a lot of testing, but there are demonstrations (funnily allowed in the "last dictatorship in Europe" while they are banned everywhere else), and a petition signed by 150K people (of a bit under 10 million Belarussians) that demand to be locked down like in "the West" (or Russia).

Here is an interesting op-ed on one of the two sites I added to my news feeds while researching.

belarusfeed said:
[...] the president said that the media artificially inflated the hype and the global drug manufacturers who make money off of panic are behind all this. It seems that Lukashenko sincerely believes that coronavirus panic is the work of the enemy, and he should keep people calm and don’t frighten them with any drastic measures.

The problem is that when the main enemy is not a virus, but a panic, it creates dangerous incentives for the entire power vertical. And now, any official or high-ranking doctor who sees that the situation is getting out of control will think twice before demanding the authorities to impose strict quarantine or cancel a mass event.

After all, it is him who will look like an alarmist arguing with the president. In the end, it may turn out that due to the system’s paralysis, fear of escalating panic, we will miss the point of no return. Politically, this is one of Lukashenko’s most risky experiments in his career.

If his bid pays off, Belarus does not become a leader of the region with sad statistics, and does not kill the economy, the president will get out of the situation in triumph. But if events take a different course, it won’t be possible to shift responsibility to someone else. The author of the unique Belarusian way took it upon himself.
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(I don't think there is enough interest for a "how Belarus does it" thread as I seem to be the first who was curious enough to look it up at all. If the mods disagree please do a sensible split)
 
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Childlike Empress said:
I have taken some time today to research the situation in Belarus where we have heard that Uncle Luka has categorized this as a "mass psychosis". Numbers of infected seem to grow in recent days from a low basis while they do a lot of testing, but there are demonstrations (funnily allowed in the "last dictatorship in Europe" while they are banned everywhere else), and a petition signed by 150K people (of a bit under 10 million Belarussians) that demand to be locked down like in "the West" (or Russia).
...
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Even dictatorships occasionally allow mass gatherings and token demonstrations. To demonstrate "people" part of name.

Also dictatorships often like to pretend there is no problem until it explodes in their face. In this regard Belarus is following in excellent footsteps of China, Russia and co...
 
icerat said:
Both big differences.

German study finds schools are major hubs for infection transmission

Masks alone could stop the epidemic
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These are based on models, though.

The problem is that one cannot model human behavior properly. That's the big problem we here in Germany are facing right now with loosening restrictions. Yes, masks show a potential of being very effective. But there are some effects that could counter effect them, like people not using them correctly, or people getting feeling safe and stepping closer to others (that's actually happening).

For instance, explaining how it works and appeals alone did not work here. Only after it was made mandatory, with police checks and (at least publishing a list of) fines people took it seriously and actually DID do something.

Models can give you an idea what restrictions to employ or to loosen up. But then you have to wait, see how the people actually react (which may not be as intended), and how the numbers develop. Which means waiting at least something like two weeks to see the real effects.
 
elgarak said:
These are based on models, though.
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It was my understanding the first model used actual data from an outbreak. Looking for clarification.

The problem is that one cannot model human behavior properly. That's the big problem we here in Germany are facing right now with loosening restrictions. Yes, masks show a potential of being very effective. But there are some effects that could counter effect them, like people not using them correctly, or people getting feeling safe and stepping closer to others (that's actually happening).
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Ha, tell me about it. The guy running the show in Sweden was asked about masks for aged care workers and he essentially answered "we don't know how well they work yet so until we get a better understanding we're not recommending them"

For instance, explaining how it works and appeals alone did not work here. Only after it was made mandatory, with police checks and (at least publishing a list of) fines people took it seriously and actually DID do something.
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Yes, knowledge almost always changes behaviour for only a small time, if it all, for most people

Models can give you an idea what restrictions to employ or to loosen up. But then you have to wait, see how the people actually react (which may not be as intended), and how the numbers develop. Which means waiting at least something like two weeks to see the real effects.[/QUOTE]
 
icerat said:
...
Ha, tell me about it. The guy running the show in Sweden was asked about masks for aged care workers and he essentially answered "we don't know how well they work yet so until we get a better understanding we're not recommending them"
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I hope when the acute phase of this pandemic passes we can go back and string some of these people up (figuratively of course). There are dozens of them in this country that deserve it.
 
Arcade22 said:
I've not seen anyone ruling out any other variables at all. The only thing people have done is fixate on one very visible difference that has been exaggerated quite heavily in foreign press.
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So you're saying people who don't live in your country fail to put things into context and are drawing histrionic and erroneous conclusions based off what they read from the foreign press. Wow, I have no idea what that must be like.
 
Klimax said:
EAlso dictatorships often like to pretend there is no problem until it explodes in their face.
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Like in the USA?! American democracy doesn't seem to have stopped the virus from exploding.
 
Anders Tegnell seems to be (deliberately) incapable of understanding the difference between his own pandemic response, i.e. business as (almost) usual until the majority of the population has been infected, and the response in other countries where they chose to lock down major parts of social life until the spread of the virus had been slowed down enough to start slowly and cautiously opening up again:

Sveriges statsepidemiolog: Danmark begynder at rette sig efter den svenske vej (DR.dk, April 26, 2020)
Sweden’s national epidemiologist: Denmark is beginning to follow the Swedish strategy
 
dann said:
Like in the USA?! American democracy doesn't seem to have stopped the virus from exploding.
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I knew somebody will try to include USA. But then they still have state governments and they took varying actions independent of federal government. So not correct example to include. Trump might like to pretend to be big dog, but ultimately he has not as much power as Lukašenko and co. (One of main differences between presidential republic and dictatorship - limit on power)
 
Dann, a question for a Dane:

I am active in a national health related organization who's sphere of interest includes geriatric care. My counter part in Denmark is telling me that Denmark isn't counting Covid19 deaths at geriatric homes. I wouldn't put much stock in such a rumor normally, but considering the source, I thought I'd check with a second opinion. What does Danish media say?
 
Denmark counts all corona deaths. Could it be that your Danish source thinks that there are no separate statistics for deaths in nursing homes? You should ask them to provide a link of some kind.
I assume that the vast majority of deaths (maybe all deaths) from Covid-19 are in ICUs. I can't imagine that any difference is made between where people were before they were transferred to a hospital and then to an ICU and placed on ventilators/respirators.
I very recently saw the definition of what counts as a death from the virus, and I think it was anyone who dies from whatever cause if that person has been tested positive for the virus in the last two months. And then, of course, there are the post-mortem tests. The first registered Covid-19 death in Denmark was a patient who died from a heart condition but was tested positive for the virus post mortem.
I'll try to find the official defintion of Covid-19 deaths in Denmark.

In the meantime:

Deaths per million (total) (TV2.dk, April 29, 2020)
Sweden: 235 (2,355)
USA: 177 (58,355)
Denmark: 75 (434)
Norway: 38 (206)
Finland: 36 (199)
Iceland: 30 (10)

Percentage of population tested - Percentage of positive tests
Sweden: 0.7 – 14.1
Finland: 1.1 – 6.5
Denmark: 1.7 – 7.8
Norway: 2.7 – 4.9

Denmark cases of hospitalizations and deaths peaked April 1 or April 2:
Denmark: April 1 or 2 --> April 28
Hospitalized: 535 --> 284
In ICU: 153 --> 66
On ventilators/respirators: 138 --> 50
Deaths per day: 20 --> 6
 
dann said:
Denmark counts all corona deaths. Could it be that your Danish source thinks that there are no separate statistics for deaths in nursing homes? You should ask them to provide a link of some kind.
I assume that the vast majority of deaths (maybe all deaths) from Covid-19 are in ICUs. I can't imagine that any difference is made between where people were before they were transferred to a hospital and then to an ICU and placed on ventilators/respirators.
I very recently saw the definition of what counts as a death from the virus, and I think it was anyone who dies from whatever cause if that person has been tested positive for the virus in the last two months. And then, of course, there are the post-mortem tests. The first registered Covid-19 death in Denmark was a patient who died from a heart condition but was tested positive for the virus post mortem.
I'll try to find the official defintion of Covid-19 deaths in Denmark.

In the meantime:

Deaths per million (total) (TV2.dk, April 29, 2020)
Sweden: 235 (2,355)
USA: 177 (58,355)
Denmark: 75 (434)
Norway: 38 (206)
Finland: 36 (199)
Iceland: 30 (10)

Percentage of population tested - Percentage of positive tests
Sweden: 0.7 – 14.1
Finland: 1.1 – 6.5
Denmark: 1.7 – 7.8
Norway: 2.7 – 4.9

Denmark cases of hospitalizations and deaths peaked April 1 or April 2:
Denmark: April 1 or 2 --> April 28
Hospitalized: 535 --> 284
In ICU: 153 --> 66
On ventilators/respirators: 138 --> 50
Deaths per day: 20 --> 6
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Thank you. It sounded wrong to me, and I'm glad it was cleared up. It's possible that he was talking about separate statistics.
 
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