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Sweden's liberal pandemic strategy questioned as Stockholm death toll mounts

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Perhaps might be misreading, I think Rolfe is saying that we should all be more careful, but that we aren't as a whole panicking about the virus (like we should) because the risk factors are so nebulous. Even those individuals who are at high risk, have contracted the virus and had minor symptoms. I don't think Rolfe was writing you off so much as explaining why the uneducated don't feel like it's a sufficiently dangerous threat to them.

Well I think it would more likely than not be a death sentence for me. The risk factors are not nebulous. They may change people's odds from .01% chance of dying to 20-30% or more chance of dying.

At the Life Care Center in Kirkland 43 people died. One was a staff member so that means out of 120 patients, 42 died. That's more than 30%
 
It certainly seems highly improbable that smoking would be in any way protective from this virus, so perhaps the study I read was an outlier of some sort.

It's not the smoking, it's the nicotine that is protective. All about the ratio of ACE and ACE-2 receptors. I had to read through a bunch of papers to get at why that could be!!

Nicotine downregulates ACE-2 receptors which SarsCovid-2 hijacks to infect. (There are some new prelim studies that try to contradict this but it is a well-studied fact) An otherwise healthy smoker would have less chance of getting a severe case. However, smoking leads to (or is often correlated to) all sorts of other diseases that prove co-morbid with it. So I guess it depends.

Hypertension seems to be the biggie (which goes along with obesity, heart disease, diabetes, diet, age, and simple genetics). This increases ACE and ACE-2 receptors.
Especially vulnerable are those who take ACE inhibitors. They will inhibit ACE, but not ACE-2. ACE-2 is impervious to those medications.

The Chinese smokers were greatly underrepresented in a large Covid-19 case study. They smoke a lot (a lot!), but their obesity levels are very low- hence low levels of all the other co-morbid diseases and less Covid-19 cases.

Do Swedish people smoke more than average? They do not seem to have any obesity issues.
 
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Even those individuals who are at high risk, have contracted the virus and had minor symptoms.


Yes, some of them. Not all of them. And don't forget cases like this one:

A colleague of mine died today from Covid19. He went home from work on april 3rd, was taken into intensive care over Easter and passed away this morning after seeming to get better over last week. He was 39 years old.
 
Sorry, I'm probably misreading your post even after reading it twice.


I think you are misreading it.
It is like saying that life goes on. And it does, of course, for the people who don't die. But for those who die, it obviously doesn't. That was the point of the Russian-roulette analogy.
But it should be stressed that you don't just play Russian roulette with your own life. You also risk passing it on to others who have significantly more bullets in the chamber than you.
 
Do Swedish people smoke more than average? They do not seem to have any obesity issues.


Sweden
The first research of smoking habits in Sweden was performed in 1946; it showed that 50% of men, and 9% of women were smokers. In 1977 41% of men and 32% of women were smokers.[39] By 2011, the use of smoking tobacco on a daily basis had decreased to only 12.5% and 14.3% among women. The use of snus, on a daily basis among men older than 15 years, was approximately 19.4% and only 3.0% for women.
Prevalence of tobacco use: Sweden (Wikipedia)


20.60% of Swedes are obese according to Wikipedia’s list: List of countries by obesity rate
 
Gee thanks Rolfe. I'm 66, have hypertension, have an autoimmune disease treated with immunosuppressive drugs and I think there was something about type A blood which I have that was a risk factor. Frankly I don't want to die.

Glad you give a ****.

Sorry, I'm probably misreading your post even after reading it twice.


Yes, you are misreading it. I was saying that the virus is not a threat to civilisation and that the main consideration as an individual should be the threat to your own individual life. That even if you think you're in a low risk group you're still playing Russian roulette if you take risks.
 
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It's not the smoking, it's the nicotine that is protective. All about the ratio of ACE and ACE-2 receptors. I had to read through a bunch of papers to get at why that could be!!

Nicotine downregulates ACE-2 receptors which SarsCovid-2 hijacks to infect. (There are some new prelim studies that try to contradict this but it is a well-studied fact) An otherwise healthy smoker would have less chance of getting a severe case. However, smoking leads to (or is often correlated to) all sorts of other diseases that prove co-morbid with it. So I guess it depends.


Should we all be taking up vaping?
 
That's because it's not the end of the world. There are too many people on the planet anyway. It's true that removing say 10% of them at random would be a huge disruption and possibly strain civilisation due to the effect on supply chains and production and so on (although that wouldn't apply if it was a slow process allowing for managed contraction and recruitment of replacements), but losing 1% of the population skewed towards retired people is not a threat.

Even if this is never controlled and it gets to the stage where it's endemic and people are dying of it at a constant but much slower rate, it's not a threat to civilisation. Not even if people who recovered from it this year get it again and die of it in 2022, so long as the case fatality rate stays around 1%. (And by the way none of that is going to happen because we will have a vaccine for this within two years, probably sooner.)

What it is, is a threat to your individual life. It's a very odd virus in the wide range of clinical severity seen. I can't immediately think of anything else that ranges from asymptomatic through the whole spectrum of very mild to severe to fatal quite like this one does. And while some things seem to tip the odds in your favour (being white, female, under 60, blood group O, and even, counterintuitively, apparently being a smoker) there will be plenty of young white women with O blood group who enjoy a fag who will die of this. If they were able to figure out why some people are so seriously affected and some aren't it might help, but apart from viral load I don't think anyone knows.

So it's down to "do you feel lucky, punk?" You're playing Russian roulette if you allow yourself to get infected with this thing. There may only be one bullet per 100 chambers, but do you really fancy your luck that much?

Well yes, in the good old days of flying, imagine the welcoming flight attendant cheerfully saying the good news is there is a 99% chance this plane will land safely, you will be alive.
(also a defence of jury verdicts)
 
Anders Wallensten, deputy chief epedemiologist, clarifies that Sweden's strategy was never herd immunity, but managing the curve as to not collapse the health care system. Was stated outright.
 
That's been the rhetoric coming from Westminster, but what's the difference? You either try to suppress the virus and prevent it spreading, or you don't.
 
Anders Wallensten, deputy chief epedemiologist, clarifies that Sweden's strategy was never herd immunity, but managing the curve as to not collapse the health care system. Was stated outright.


Sorry, he may say so, but I don't believe him. Besides, I don't see the difference between going for herd immunity and this:

Stockholm ligger långt över det globala genomsnittet för hur många som har haft covid-19. I går gick WHO ut och sa att bara några få procent av jordens befolkning är smittade, men flera studier visar nu att en tredjedel av alla stockholmare har smittats.
Mer än en halv miljon smittade i Stockholm (SVT.se, April 21, 2020)
Stockholm is far above the global average of the number of people with Covid-19. Yesterday, the WHO said that only a few percent of the population of the Earth were infected, but several studies not show that one third of the population of Stockholm are infected.
More than half a million people in Stockholm are infected
 
This article suggests Sweden's strategy is working.


If herd immunity is not what they are going for, it sure is what they are getting:

Albert thinks the actual situation isn’t far away from the ballpark suggested by professor Tom Britton in a study that was released this weekend: that between 25 and 40 per cent of the Stockholm population have had the virus and that the region will reach herd immunity in late May.
 
Anders Jansson, överläkare och en av medförfattarna till debattartikeln av de 22 forskarna och läkarna, går till hård attack mot bland annat Agnes Wold, Alex Schulman och Karin Bojs i en debattartikel i Aftonbladet.
Han menar att syftet med de debattartikeln var att om möjligt minska mängden i onödan smittade och döda med hjälp av deras forskning och kunskap.

”Okränkbar guru”
Det som i stället följde beskriver han som ett mediedrev av självutnämnda experter och bloggare, utan egna sakkunskaper, som flockades kring Anders Tegnell som blev en ”okränkbar guru och den ende sanne uttolkare av världens samlade medicinska vetenskap”.

Överläkaren rasar över kritiken mot de 22 debattörerna (Aftonbladet.se, April 21, 2020)
Anders Jansson, leading MD and one of the authors of the debate article by the 22 researchers and doctors, counterattacks among others Agnes Wold, Alex Schulman and Karin Bojs in a debate article in Aftonbladet.
He thinks that the purpose of the debate article was to lower the risk of unnecessary infections and deaths by means of their research and knowledge.
”Sacrosanct guru”
He describes what happened instead as a media flood of self-appointed experts and bloggers, without any expertise of their own, who joined ranks around Anders Tegnell, who became a “sacrosanct guru and the only true interpreter of the totality of medical science.”

Confirmed infected in Sweden: 15 322
• Deathsl: 1 765
• Deaths reported in the last 24 hours: 185

Latest News about the Cornonavirus (Aftonbladet.se, April 21, 2020)
 
This article suggests Sweden's strategy is working.

Isn't this a "told you so" article from The Spectator, and specifically from a Swedish advocate of the policy?

The UK's ministers at the Downing Street briefing are also telling us that their strategy is going more or less as planned and things are fine. Any problems are those that couldn't be helped, etc...
 
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