Sweden's liberal pandemic strategy questioned as Stockholm death toll mounts

[Skeptic Ginger]

Sweden ponders tougher stance as coronavirus death rate tops neighbours'

But after a week of sobering data, Mr Lofven now seems to be striking a darker tone. In an interview published yesterday by Dagens Nyheter, he warned that Sweden may be facing "thousands" of coronavirus deaths, and that the crisis is likely to drag on for months.

Newspaper Expressen reported that his government may be seeking extraordinary powers to bypass Parliament and force through a tougher response to the virus.

You can't just pretend this is no worse than a bad flu year. Look around you. This may look like a measured response. That may be misjudging the situation.

Sweden has already taken a few steps towards more restrictions. It recently banned gatherings larger than 50. Visits to retirement homes for the elderly are also banned, and Mr Lofven has made clear stricter instructions may follow.

Coronavirus: Sweden's death rate shows danger of 'herd immunity'

While other nations have imposed lockdown restrictions to help prevent the spread of coronavirus, Sweden’s shops, bars and schools remain open. But what effect has this had?

It starts with a discussion of the UK experience I posted about above.

But while the UK‘s policy is now firmly in line with that of the vast majority of the world, Sweden remain an outlier. The Scandinavian country says it is relying on citizens to take responsibility and has given guidelines rather than any strict restrictions. Schools, shops and bars remain open with gatherings of up to 50 people still permitted.

Much of their response is based on advice from Anders Tegnell, Sweden’s chief epidemiologist, who has advocated the policy. He has previously told Swedish TV that coronavirus could be stopped by “herd immunity, or a combination of immunity and vaccination”....

The death rate of coronavirus-infected patients in Norway is less than 2%, with the figure in Denmark around 4%. In Sweden, nearly 8% of people to have contracted coronavirus have died.

Concerns are also growing about the spread of the virus in nursing homes, with one third of Stockholm’s nursing homes reporting cases....

 

[uke2se]

A colleague of mine died today from Covid19. He went home from work on april 3rd, was taken into intensive care over Easter and passed away this morning after seeming to get better over last week. He was 39 years old.

 

[The Don]

A colleague of mine died today from Covid19. He went home from work on april 3rd, was taken into intensive care over Easter and passed away this morning after seeming to get better over last week. He was 39 years old.

I'm sorry to hear that - that's sad, frightening and worrying.

One of the things I'm finding it difficult to work out about Coronavirus is how freaked out to be. On one hand, the vast majority of fatalities have been among the over 70's and those with preexisting health conditions - I'm in neither of those groups. On the other hand that still leaves thousands of people who are in neither of those groups.

One thing which has been notably absent from the mass media and the social media I access are "This is the end of the world" stories. Indeed all the hyperbole tends to be on the "This is nothing to worry about" side. I cannot work out why that is.

 

[dann]

On one hand, the vast majority of fatalities have been among the over 70's and those with preexisting health conditions - I'm in neither of those groups.

Nyeste corona-tal fra Danmark og verden: Så mange er smittede, døde og indlagte (TV2, April 20, 2020)

Så gamle er de indlagte og døde = The age of the hospitalized and the dead

The number of corona deaths in Denmark in different age groups:
0-59: 10
60-69: 40
70-79: 111
80-89: 133
90+: 61

 

[dann]

A colleague of mine died today from Covid19. He went home from work on april 3rd, was taken into intensive care over Easter and passed away this morning after seeming to get better over last week. He was 39 years old.

Tragic! That patients appear to be getting better before finally dying is an aspect of his disease that is described in many of the cases.

 

[Rolfe]

One thing which has been notably absent from the mass media and the social media I access are "This is the end of the world" stories. Indeed all the hyperbole tends to be on the "This is nothing to worry about" side. I cannot work out why that is.

That's because it's not the end of the world. There are too many people on the planet anyway. It's true that removing say 10% of them at random would be a huge disruption and possibly strain civilisation due to the effect on supply chains and production and so on (although that wouldn't apply if it was a slow process allowing for managed contraction and recruitment of replacements), but losing 1% of the population skewed towards retired people is not a threat.

Even if this is never controlled and it gets to the stage where it's endemic and people are dying of it at a constant but much slower rate, it's not a threat to civilisation. Not even if people who recovered from it this year get it again and die of it in 2022, so long as the case fatality rate stays around 1%. (And by the way none of that is going to happen because we will have a vaccine for this within two years, probably sooner.)

What it is, is a threat to your individual life. It's a very odd virus in the wide range of clinical severity seen. I can't immediately think of anything else that ranges from asymptomatic through the whole spectrum of very mild to severe to fatal quite like this one does. And while some things seem to tip the odds in your favour (being white, female, under 60, blood group O, and even, counterintuitively, apparently being a smoker) there will be plenty of young white women with O blood group who enjoy a fag who will die of this. If they were able to figure out why some people are so seriously affected and some aren't it might help, but apart from viral load I don't think anyone knows.

So it's down to "do you feel lucky, punk?" You're playing Russian roulette if you allow yourself to get infected with this thing. There may only be one bullet per 100 chambers, but do you really fancy your luck that much?

 

[angrysoba]

A colleague of mine died today from Covid19. He went home from work on april 3rd, was taken into intensive care over Easter and passed away this morning after seeming to get better over last week. He was 39 years old.

Oh my God! Sorry to hear that. Very young to die of COVID-19 as well!

 

[Arcade22]

But by all means, being on the front line there, you tell us what is going on. What is your evidence Sweden is doing so well without a lockdown?

Let's see: there are plenty of ICU beds available. That's a very good example of how Sweden is coping "well". Of course that is because the people who are dying are too weak and frail to move from care homes to the hospitals, but that illustrates the problem. The problem is that most of the care homes for the elderly lacked sufficient protective equipment to use routinely in a preventive manner.

Sweden's strategy has never been to neither to try and completely stop the spread of infection nor let it infect everyone. It's been to try and reduce the rate of infection as much as feasible without too much socioeconomic damage. That's what almost every other country is doing.

Again, I'm not using any other EU country comparison except what Dann posted. I said, "The point is just that we need to look at multiple variables here and be cautious comparing countries."

I'd seriously recommend that you get another source of information.

Just today the news was a nursing home in Sweden had a serious outbreak. I watch a lot of German (DK) and other international news sources on TV. I'll try to find a web source.

It's not a nursing home, it's like every other nursing home in Stockholm had a serious outbreak.

 

[Rolfe]

Hmmm.

https://twitter.com/bencoates1/status/1251069853408153600

https://twitter.com/Georgeberger/status/1252173501550792705

 

[dann]

And while some things seem to tip the odds in your favour (being white, female, under 60, blood group O, and even, counterintuitively, apparently being a smoker) there will be plenty of young white women with O blood group who enjoy a fag who will die of this.

Smokers 14 times more likely to contract coronavirus - According to research by Chinese doctors, acute smokers are more at risk of dying from COVID-19 than elderly people. (AlJazeera, April 16, 2020)

 

[dann]

That's what almost every other country is doing.
(...)
It's not a nursing home, it's like every other nursing home in Stockholm had a serious outbreak.

Some countries appear to be doing it very wrong ...

 

[dann]

Oh okay then keep on comparing apples and potatoes while thinking you are making some "interesting" point.

So far, we have been comparing corona deaths to corona deaths, which seems to bother you immensely.

 

[Rolfe]

Smokers 14 times more likely to contract coronavirus - According to research by Chinese doctors, acute smokers are more at risk of dying from COVID-19 than elderly people. (AlJazeera, April 16, 2020)

Well, that seems the more likely thing. But I read a summary of research that surprisingly seemed to point the other way. I imagine the correct answer will emerge in time. Meanwhile, don't take up fags!

ETA: Here's the link where I read the stuff about the smoking statistics. https://twitter.com/KlausKblog/status/1242995506118307840

 

[dann]

This is from a very long article with many more links to other articles and studies:

A meta-analysis of the relationship between smoking and influenza found that smokers were more likely to be hospialized and admitted to the ICU.
Consistent with this science, analysis of deaths from corona virus in China shows that men are more likely to die than women, something that may be related to the fact that many more Chinese men smoke than women. However, one study from China that evaluated predictors of death among all people hospitalized with COVID-19 did not find an association with smoking. Another study from China of patients diagnosed with COVID-19 associated pneumonia who had been in the hospital for two weeks reported that the odds of disease progression (including to death) were 14 times higher among people with a history of smoking compared to those who did not smoke. This was the strongest risk factor among those examined.
Reduce your risk of serious lung disease caused by corona virus by quitting smoking and vaping (Center for Tobacco Control Research and Education, April 16, 2020)

 

[Rolfe]

It certainly seems highly improbable that smoking would be in any way protective from this virus, so perhaps the study I read was an outlier of some sort.

 

[Arcade22]

- We do not have a large spread of infection within the home service. Now, 0.6 percent of our users are found to be infected. It is not that there is any large spread within the home service, said Erik Slottner (KD) in yesterday's Agenda.

"Are you sure?" Asked the hostess Anna Hedenmo.

- Yes, and it's very important to say. The current figure is 0.6 percent.

Behind the 0.6 percent that Slottner refers to, there are 77 elderly people who have been found infected by covid-19 and who are cared for in the home care service in Stockholm. But the Elder Citizens' Council does not count in that figure is 95 people who became ill with covid-19 in the home service but who have become so ill that they have been transferred to hospitals.

In addition, an additional 106 people are suspected of being infected by covid-19 within the home care service in Stockholm.

...

- Many people who have seen this segment can get the feeling that it is some-kind of uncontrolled spread of covid-19 in the home care and the elderly, and it is very important to say that it is not. It can spread an unnecessary fear, especially among many relatives.

...

The questionnaire that the elderly management in Stockholm collected last week and which Agenda took part shows that today there are 13,886 people over 65 who receive home care in Stockholm. But it is not clear how many of them tested for covid-19. Not even the Public Health Authority knows. Therefore, it is not possible to say how many are infected by covid-19. When Erik Slottner points out that only 0.6 per cent is found to be infected, the dark figure can thus be large.

When Agenda makes contact with Erik Slottner on Monday, the day after Agenda's broadcast, he is also not so sure.

- I would have said that we have not seen any signs of a large spread of infection and I fully agree that we do not know everything. We do not have any information on how many of the home service users have been tested for infection, says Elder Mayor Erik Slottner (KD) in Stockholm.

https://www.svt.se/nyheter/lokalt/s...ittade-i-hemtjansten-an-vad-politikern-pastar

"Home service" is basically when employees from the municipality visit people, typically the elderly but also those with special needs and handicaps, to make sure they are healthy and such. They might also deliver food, medicine and so forth. It's almost certainly a major source of how the infection has spread.

Locally, one of my mothers acquaintances with whom she went in the same class in school who apparently worked at home service, actually got infected from one of the "users" and died. I think he's one of the first ones.

And yes, that's what they call people who receive home service. Users.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

A colleague of mine died today from Covid19. He went home from work on april 3rd, was taken into intensive care over Easter and passed away this morning after seeming to get better over last week. He was 39 years old.

Damn that sucks. All these people who believe only old people are dying. It seems so needless.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

That's because it's not the end of the world. There are too many people on the planet anyway. It's true that removing say 10% of them at random would be a huge disruption and possibly strain civilisation due to the effect on supply chains and production and so on (although that wouldn't apply if it was a slow process allowing for managed contraction and recruitment of replacements), but losing 1% of the population skewed towards retired people is not a threat.

Even if this is never controlled and it gets to the stage where it's endemic and people are dying of it at a constant but much slower rate, it's not a threat to civilisation. Not even if people who recovered from it this year get it again and die of it in 2022, so long as the case fatality rate stays around 1%. (And by the way none of that is going to happen because we will have a vaccine for this within two years, probably sooner.)

What it is, is a threat to your individual life. It's a very odd virus in the wide range of clinical severity seen. I can't immediately think of anything else that ranges from asymptomatic through the whole spectrum of very mild to severe to fatal quite like this one does. And while some things seem to tip the odds in your favour (being white, female, under 60, blood group O, and even, counterintuitively, apparently being a smoker) there will be plenty of young white women with O blood group who enjoy a fag who will die of this. If they were able to figure out why some people are so seriously affected and some aren't it might help, but apart from viral load I don't think anyone knows.

So it's down to "do you feel lucky, punk?" You're playing Russian roulette if you allow yourself to get infected with this thing. There may only be one bullet per 100 chambers, but do you really fancy your luck that much?

Gee thanks Rolfe. I'm 66, have hypertension, have an autoimmune disease treated with immunosuppressive drugs and I think there was something about type A blood which I have that was a risk factor. Frankly I don't want to die.

Glad you give a ****.

Sorry, I'm probably misreading your post even after reading it twice.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

Oh okay then keep on comparing apples and potatoes while thinking you are making some "interesting" point.

What about comparing Sweden to two other Scandinavian countries? How do you see the differences.

I do want to know. The news media certainly isn't helping. Someone living there could be very helpful.

 

[Silly Green Monkey]

Perhaps might be misreading, I think Rolfe is saying that we should all be more careful, but that we aren't as a whole panicking about the virus (like we should) because the risk factors are so nebulous. Even those individuals who are at high risk, have contracted the virus and had minor symptoms. I don't think Rolfe was writing you off so much as explaining why the uneducated don't feel like it's a sufficiently dangerous threat to them.