The One Covid-19 Science and Medicine Thread

[dann]

There's no equivalent word, as far as I know. It's called the R0 number.

Thank you. Is that an acronym for something?


ETA: Found it!

R0 is pronounced “R naught.” It’s a mathematical term that indicates how contagious an infectious disease is. It’s also referred to as the reproduction number. As an infection spreads to new people, it reproduces itself.
What Is R0?: Gauging Contagious Infections (Healthline)

 

[Dr.Sid]

To Mask or Not To Mask, That is the Question

https://icite.od.nih.gov/covid19/search/#record:recordId=10.1101/2020.04.06.20055624




https://icite.od.nih.gov/covid19/search/#record:recordId=10.1101/2020.04.02.20051177

As long as people can get or make masks easily, I don't see how it can hurt. If anything it shows you care to people you meet.
Here it's mandatory over a month. And from beginning it was well obeyed. Not so much these days, people just think it's over. Crowd immunity ? Great thing, but I'll pass as long as it's possible.
Speaking is not exactly coughing in each others faces, but not far from it.

 

[Andy_Ross]

Heartland hotspots: A sudden rise in coronavirus cases is hitting rural states without stay-at-home orders

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/17/...DPICyn5CDHnErvBS8JN_DiAukPXx2Gf6zd5cIzDnmuYzs

Well, there's a surprise

 

[novaphile]

Just noticed something odd about the number of new cases. It is happening in several countries, including Australia for the last 6 days. That is the number of new cases is stuck. Every day there are the same number of new cases plus or minus some noise. For example in America there have been about 30,000 new cases every day since 2 April.

I fear the lockdown is not working very well. It should be reducing this number and it is not. It is only holding it steady.

For some reason you don't seem to be taking into account the source of the new cases. For example, the plague ship, Ruby Princess is still disgorging new cases into Australia.

Tasmania had an outbreak in a hospital.

Here in South Australia, we're about to receive a flight of 400 people today, who have to go into quarantine for two weeks.

We're expecting a second flight of repatriations tomorrow.

 

[novaphile]

I don't think the hazard is hands in mouth. Covid isn't a digestive disorder. It's hands to nose, hands to eyes that inserts it into the respiratory system.

It doesn't matter how often this is repeated, it will be ignored.

 

[The Atheist]

Germany has begun a survey for antibodies, using 3,000 families selected at random. This won't be a one-off test; the participants will be tested once a month for a year. There are plans to test all residents for antibodies.

Yay for the Krauts!

Real information will be bloody handy from many angles. It also highlights why fast action slowing the virus is imperative - it means health staff aren't knee-deep in corpses and ventilators, so they have time to do this kind of thing.

To Mask or Not To Mask, That is the Question

Thankfully, and taking no chance of allowing a means of transmission to go un-checked, it seems to me that most places opening up their economies are going to insist on them.

We haven't quite got there yet in NZ, and I note supermarket workers wearing them is only about 50/50, with white people again the main source of non-maskers.

Thank you. Is that an acronym for something?

ETA: Found it!

That is a medical/scientific term. "Contagiousness" is dead right from a language perspective.

 

[Samson]

How much does a mask that lasts 30 minutes cost?
Per % efficacy?

This is the supermarket solution.

 

[Marcus]

To Mask or Not To Mask, That is the Question

https://icite.od.nih.gov/covid19/search/#record:recordId=10.1101/2020.04.06.20055624




https://icite.od.nih.gov/covid19/search/#record:recordId=10.1101/2020.04.02.20051177

Transmission by droplets really does seem more prevalent than transmission by aerosol. I will continue to comply with the rules here, which say you must wear a mask in public. I'm sure I'm not infected but it makes everyone else feel better, also saves me from a $1000 ticket.

 

[William Parcher]

I'm sure I'm not infected

That generally requires testing to determine.

 

[Marcus]

That generally requires testing to determine.

True, but if you are 64, you haven't been out in public for a week, and you don't have even the very faintest of symptoms, it seems like a pretty good bet.

 

[EHocking]

Any info on the effects of sea water on the virus?

It attracts 1000s of idiot that can’t pronounce social-distancing, let alone practice it?

 

[TellyKNeasuss]

How much does a mask that lasts 30 minutes cost?
Per % efficacy?

This is the supermarket solution.

I'm skeptical of the value of shoppers wearing face masks at grocery store. Both Christian Drosten (the German virologist whom someone posted a video interview with in a previous thread) and the guy who conducted the Heinsberg study stated that transmission mainly occurs during "extended" exposure. Which seems to make sense; if it was possible to get infected from someone walking past you in a grocery store aisle, wouldn't it be expected that just about every grocery store clerk would be sick by now?

Where I live, masks are not required in stores (though some stores have signs requesting that patrons wear them). But I'm going to buy a few because I expect that when (or if) concerts are allowed to resume they might require attendees to wear masks. Unfortunately, the only options (for those of us who don't know how to sew) is to overpay or else order from someone who can't guarantee delivery in less than 6 weeks.

 

[marting]

True, but if you are 64, you haven't been out in public for a week, and you don't have even the very faintest of symptoms, it seems like a pretty good bet.

I've been tracking this puppy since Jan.

7 weeks ago was the last time I was at a restaurant. It was a calculated risk. At the time I estimated the local number of people infected was probably, at the most, around .01% but doubling every 3 days or so. Data since then indicates it was likely more like .003%. So it was the last time. We went early and had a table that was over 15' away from any other folks, mostly because it was so early in the evening.

Had a great meal and left a particularly large tip. And that was the last time the wife and I have been out together.

5 weeks ago we discontinued our housekeeper service but paid them for the next 3 months.

Since then mostly home bound with only one of us going out briefly and infrequently for necessities at times when crowds were minimal. With DIY masks.

It's all very calculated. We are not very concerned about getting COVID-19 and it hasn't changed that much of our lives since were are retired.

 

[pipelineaudio]

It doesn't matter how often this is repeated, it will be ignored.

Because its not true?

 

[The Atheist]

How much does a mask that lasts 30 minutes cost?
Per % efficacy?

This is the supermarket solution.

I think the supermarket solution is just to require masks.

A paper towel and a couple of rubber bands does the trick. Just search "paper towel mask" if you can't figure it out.

True, but if you are 64, you haven't been out in public for a week, and you don't have even the very faintest of symptoms, it seems like a pretty good bet.

As long as you're not one of the many people who take 14 days to show symptoms.

I'm skeptical of the value of shoppers wearing face masks at grocery store.

I agree that more exposure is usually necessary that isn't going to happen walking past people at a store.

However, if that one infected guy is in an aisle coughing droplets, you'd only need one to potentially kill you, so if that guy's wearing a mask it will reduce the spray of droplets by several orders of magnitude.

 

[William Parcher]

Which seems to make sense; if it was possible to get infected from someone walking past you in a grocery store aisle, wouldn't it be expected that just about every grocery store clerk would be sick by now?

Oh, are you talking about the clerks who are infected but are asymptomatic?

 

[The Atheist]

Meanwhile, the global picture is very dark.

Africa seems to have been through the disease's honeymoon/phony war stage and is starting to break out in exponential style. Sad to say, celebration of RSA's seeming success may have been a touch early, with fairly disturbing numbers out in the past couple of days.

North Africa is already going badly, and central Africa looks to be following the same path. I'd say the continent will overtake both Europe and North America pretty quickly, although maybe not in "official" cases, given the parlous state of health systems and administration throughout the continent.

Mexico & Central America are sparking nasty numbers (Hope Guatemala is the exception!) while South America seems to be headed the same way as Africa, but with very dodgy accounting thrown in.

On my count, I'd say we're about 5% of the way through Covid-19 right now.

 

[TellyKNeasuss]

Oh, are you talking about the clerks who are infected but are asymptomatic?

I'm talking about clerks being infected, period. Do you have data on the number of asymptomatic infected grocery store clerks?

 

[EHocking]

I'm talking about clerks being infected, period. Do you have data on the number of asymptomatic infected grocery store clerks?

Yes.
Google is your friend.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

I don't think the hazard is hands in mouth. Covid isn't a digestive disorder. It's hands to nose, hands to eyes that inserts it into the respiratory system.

This pisses me off and we on this board especially should not be repeating this unsubstantiated assertion.

How do you know that? And why are you passing it on because you heard it somewhere? Sorry to pick on you. I could be picking on lots of people, especially the public health which should have been a reliable source but they haven't been.

WHO: VIRUSES IN FOOD: SCIENTIFIC ADVICE TO SUPPORT RISK MANAGEMENT ACTIVITIES

Table 1. Viruses that are, or have the potential to be, transmitted via food and their site of infection in the human body.

Site of Infection Virus​

Neural tissue and nervous system

Enterovirus, Nipah virus, Poliovirus*, Parechovirus*, Tick-borne encephalitis virus*​

Respiratory system

HPAI-H5N1, SARS-CoV​

Liver

HAV, HEV​

Intestinal system

NoV, HRV, Sapovirus, Astrovirus, Adenovirus, Aichi virus​

Note: Enteric viruses can also be airborne, bloodborne (including vector-borne) or sexually transmitted.
* While these viruses have the potential to be transmitted via food they were not considered further by the
meeting. ...

The potential for foodborne transmission is a concern with every new emerging infection, and ruling out such concerns is often difficult. Although initially considered to be unlikely, faecaloral spread in particular conditions has been proven for the primarily respiratory pathogens Nipah virus, HPAI virus and SARS-CoV. Infectious avian influenza virus has been cultured from frozen exported meat, raising questions about the possible dissemination of such viruses via the food chain. Although this mode of spread is considered to be rare, the potential consequences of such spread dictated that such viruses be considered by the meeting.

I'll try to find this reference:

Boone, S.A. & Gerba, C.P. 2007. Significance of fomites in the spread of respiratory and enteric viral disease. Applied and Environmental Microbiology, 73(6): 1687–1696.

Contaminate the food (a fomite), put it on your mouth and in the case some especially contagious respiratory viruses they can find there way into the upper airway mucosa the same way they can from your hands to your mouth. The idea it needs to go in the eye or nose is not logical let alone tested and demonstrated.

Fauci, Dr Brix and other public health officials are spreading the unsupported assertion we don't need to worry about restaurant food, just the outer packaging.