The idea that Nadine Dorries is a minister still fills me with both wonder and dread. That said, it makes complete sense that if the lockdown is effective (and it appears to be starting to have an effect) then the best way to stop the NHS being overwhelmed is to keep measures in place until a vaccine is available.
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Cont: 2019-nCoV / Corona virus Pt 3
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The idea that Nadine Dorries is a minister still fills me with both wonder and dread. That said, it makes complete sense that if the lockdown is effective (and it appears to be starting to have an effect) then the best way to stop the NHS being overwhelmed is to keep measures in place until a vaccine is available.
Childlike Empress
Banned
Germany plans to re-open some schools for some kids on May 4th. Classes will be much smaller to keep the distance. Classes should have been much smaller anyway.
blutoski
Penultimate Amazing
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No, it's good science.
The trial was preregistered, and when they couldn't comply with the protocol, ceasing the trial is appropriate. This is why Skeptics and Science based medicine have been pushing preregistration. It prevents researchers from shooting from the hip to complete a botched trial because they want *something* to show for it.
Another example like this that we frequently see is if the dropout rate gets too high.
If your protocols and stats are designed for 10,000 subjects and you're down to 38, just give up already. The results will be unreliable.
Childlike Empress
Banned
Orwell is rolling in his grave.
Even more: regulations? who needs pesky regulations! Caveat emptor!
There are a lot of ironies here ...
^ This.
Ensuring that
a) you publish your trial's protocols before you start
b) you publish the full results of your trial after it's over (including negative results)
are two essential elements of doing good science, whether in medicine or condensed matter physics.
marting
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A lockdown for a few months then re-opening worked in Wuhan .The rest of China just went with partial social distancing and masks even though large numbers of cases had spread throughout China before the Wuhan lockdown.
A lockdown until a vaccine is found is not feasible. And it's even possible a vaccine will never be found.
I think this is not what it sounds like. More like a full exit from lockdown will not happen until a vaccine is found. A full lockdown for ~18 months is hardly feasible.
ETA: As marting said above me.
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Sorry, I was unclear and/or misleading.
I meant to say that some measures will have to remain in place until a vaccine is implemented. Whether it's preventing large crowds congregating at sporting or entertainment events or asking the most vulnerable to continue to self isolate to a certain degree.
AIUI, Wuhan isn't back to normal, it's just not under the same degree of lockdown.
Yes, this.
Deaths per (unit) population
This has been the topic of several posts in this thread. And now that the JHU Coronavirus Resource Center has a "Cases and mortality by country" table, worth continuing the discussion (I'll add links to at least some of the previous posts on this, if anyone is interested).
Caveats aside*, Spain has 40.0 deaths per 100k of population, the US 8.7, Germany 4.6, Canada 2.7, and Greece 0.95 (a selection). As of "Wednesday, April 15, 2020 at 08:01 PM EDT."
Why such a huge range?
The when and where of the index cases for each place is clearly a key factor. As is how rapidly covid-19 spread in each place. As this is deaths, differences in demographics and distribution of "underlying health conditions" are also important.
For strategies we might call "Hammer and Dance", efforts to reduce how rapidly covid-19 spreads include things like testing/contact tracing/isolation, closing schools and work places, social distancing, and hand washing/face masks/etc.
For developed economies (Europe, US+Canada, Japan, S Korea, ANZ, Taiwan, Singapore, HK; more?), how to determine the relative importance of the three factors above (as of ~now)?
First attempt, for how rapidly covid-19 spread (selection only):
Wildfire: Spain 40.0, Belgium 38.9, Italy 35.8, France 25.7, UK 19.4, Netherlands 18.3
Not: Germany 4.6, Austria 4.4, Canada 2.7, Norway 2.8, Czechia 1.6, Greece 0.95, Poland 0.75, S Korea 0.44, Japan 0.12
???: Sweden 11.8, Luxembourg 11.4, Ireland 9.2, US 8.7, Denmark 5.3
*Potentially a very long list; so just some (no particular order):
- consistency re cause of death
- ditto re completeness, accuracy, and timeliness of reporting
- "population": includes all people there? e.g. excludes migrants? illegals? refugees?
- small number statistics, e.g. 3 deaths in Monaco
This has been the topic of several posts in this thread. And now that the JHU Coronavirus Resource Center has a "Cases and mortality by country" table, worth continuing the discussion (I'll add links to at least some of the previous posts on this, if anyone is interested).
Caveats aside*, Spain has 40.0 deaths per 100k of population, the US 8.7, Germany 4.6, Canada 2.7, and Greece 0.95 (a selection). As of "Wednesday, April 15, 2020 at 08:01 PM EDT."
Why such a huge range?
The when and where of the index cases for each place is clearly a key factor. As is how rapidly covid-19 spread in each place. As this is deaths, differences in demographics and distribution of "underlying health conditions" are also important.
For strategies we might call "Hammer and Dance", efforts to reduce how rapidly covid-19 spreads include things like testing/contact tracing/isolation, closing schools and work places, social distancing, and hand washing/face masks/etc.
For developed economies (Europe, US+Canada, Japan, S Korea, ANZ, Taiwan, Singapore, HK; more?), how to determine the relative importance of the three factors above (as of ~now)?
First attempt, for how rapidly covid-19 spread (selection only):
Wildfire: Spain 40.0, Belgium 38.9, Italy 35.8, France 25.7, UK 19.4, Netherlands 18.3
Not: Germany 4.6, Austria 4.4, Canada 2.7, Norway 2.8, Czechia 1.6, Greece 0.95, Poland 0.75, S Korea 0.44, Japan 0.12
???: Sweden 11.8, Luxembourg 11.4, Ireland 9.2, US 8.7, Denmark 5.3
*Potentially a very long list; so just some (no particular order):
- consistency re cause of death
- ditto re completeness, accuracy, and timeliness of reporting
- "population": includes all people there? e.g. excludes migrants? illegals? refugees?
- small number statistics, e.g. 3 deaths in Monaco
It seems to me that the most effective, least onerous measures that will have to remain in place involve all of the following:
- widespread testing (with rapid turn-around times and full disclosure of results)
- vigorous contact tracing
- strict isolation of those found infected
- (maybe) isolation of all contacts (irrespective of test results, until we know a lot more about this devil).
I, for one, hope no one, anywhere, returns to the old normal. The only way we will drive SARS-COV-2 (and future nasties like it) to extinction includes a new normal that accepts mandatory strict isolation of those infected (to take one example).
Childlike Empress
Banned
angrysoba
Philosophile
Yes, and this has been happening in the UK as well, with people who die at home or in care homes not being registered as having died of COVID-19.
This has shown up on the "excess deaths" of this and last month.
This thing is killing far more people than the official figures state.
Squeegee Beckenheim
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Well, that's not right, either. She does know that it's entirely possible that no vaccine will ever be found, right?
Hammer and the dance. It's the only viable strategy I've encountered.
Squeegee Beckenheim
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She literally said that the only way to exit a full lockdown was when a vaccine had been developed.
I'm sure that will be walked back and is more a sign of Tory incompetence than anything else, but that doesn't change the fact that it's what she said.
Still, this should probably go in the politics thread, rather than the science one.
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TellyKNeasuss
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I look at your 3rd item and think that it will be interesting to see what studies will show about how much of the spreading came from people who should at least have suspected that they had COVID-19 or would suspect that they had it if they had a better understanding of the symptoms (e.g., low income recent immigrants might not have accessed much of the information that's been broadcast about COVID-19).
Childlike Empress
Banned
[wrong thread]
a_unique_person
Director of Hatcheries and Conditioning
If you're not going to take advantage of your natural attributes, then they aren't going to help you much.
eeyore1954
Philosopher
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NYC added 3 thousand something New deaths from corona virus previously unreported.
eeyore1954
Philosopher
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The mystery to me is Japan and to a lesser degree South Korea.
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