Cont: 2019-nCoV / Corona virus Pt 3

[DevilsAdvocate]

As expected, the Michigan new case count went up from yesterday, Easter.

Almost every state is seeing an uptick or at least and upward increase from the path they were on.

Thank God!

 

[Meadmaker]

Almost every state is seeing an uptick or at least and upward increase from the path they were on.

Thank God!

No, Michigan is going down. Easter's numbers were less than 1/3 of the worst day, which was last week, and slightly more than half of what it had been just two days before. It went up today, but today;s numbers were still lower than all of last week's numbers. I assumed, yesterday, that the numbers for Easter would be artificially low, so today's numbers bumped up a bit, but that was bucking the trend. In Michigan, the trend is toward significantly fewer cases.

Will that hold? I suppose we'll see.

 

[Trebuchet]

I've got a question for you.

I've been very concerned reading the last two days of several meat packing plants closing down, especially the Smithfield plant in South Dakota.


These places are not being closed by government decree, because they are essential work. They aren't being closed for lack of demand. In fact, they can't keep up with the demand. They aren't being closed for lack of supply. In fact, there is great concern that farmers will have no place to take animals to be turned into sausage with these plants closed down.

The only thing that is causing these plants to close is a worker shortage, because so many of them are sick. 300 Covid-19 cases at the Smithfield plant, which is 40% of the cases in South Dakota. (I don't know how many deaths.) Many meat packing facilities across the country have closed in the last few days, all because of sick workers.

Do you ever remember anything like that happening before, ever? What makes this year special?

My theory is that Covid-19 at least as contagious and more deadly than the flu.

Wearing masks and other gear in meat processing plants would not be a bad idea even in normal times. Unfortunately it's an industry which is notorious for its disregard of workers.

 

[DevilsAdvocate]

No, Michigan is going down. Easter's numbers were less than 1/3 of the worst day, which was last week, and slightly more than half of what it had been just two days before. It went up today, but today;s numbers were still lower than all of last week's numbers. I assumed, yesterday, that the numbers for Easter would be artificially low, so today's numbers bumped up a bit, but that was bucking the trend. In Michigan, the trend is toward significantly fewer cases.

Will that hold? I suppose we'll see.

Ah, you are right. I confused MI and MA, because they are basically the same, right?

But that's still the exception that proves the rule. Almost every state just got a bump in some way (there are a few other exceptions).

 

[marting]

We will never know. Chinese number might have been suspicious in the past. But now it's clear they are manipulated. Basically 0 new cases in the whole China is simply impossible. Hammer and dance should look like South Korea.

Not sure what you are looking at but this:

https://www.who.int/docs/default-so...0413-sitrep-84-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=44f511ab_2

Has 115 new cases and 2 deaths for China.

The new cases per day has been increasing and have been over 100 for the last few days. Deaths tend to bounce around. 0 on the prior day, 4 the day before that.

 

[WhatRoughBeast]

Currently, the US case rate is rather peculiar.

Back in late February and early March, we were doubling cases every 2-3 days. With the imposition of social distancing in increasing numbers of states, by late March that dropped to about a 5-day doubling rate.

But for the last 7 days, the new case rate has been stuck at about 32,000/day, or very close to it.

On the one hand, it's clear that we've stopped the exponential growth, and that's all to the good (as well as being something of a relief).

On the other hand, we're not seeing anything that resembles a levelling off.

If we're not to project about a thousand deaths a day for however long it takes to develop a vaccine, we will apparently need to increase social isolation, not ease it as is being discussed.

 

[Roboramma]

Iceland has tested 10% of its entire population, finding that half of all people who get it don't even have symptoms, with an overall fatality rate so far of 0.4%.

I, for one, am not surprised that when real testing of a populationis done, the death rate is far lowerthan what has been claimed.

ETA: number correction and removed incorrect statement about flu death rates.

0.4% is pretty close to what I've thought all along, which is something like 0.6%, up to around 1%. There has been speculation of rates higher than that, but something close to 1% has always seemed reasonable, when taking in to account the number of mild cases that there must be out there.

 

[Roboramma]

Today is the 12th of April and we're not even close to being on pace with your forecast. Looks like we're waiting longer than you thought. Or was your "supposing" not meant to be taken seriously, as it was simply "supposing"? It certainly felt as though your intention was to show me, through "supposing" in simple exponential fashion (since apparently you, as so many others,
thought I was too simpleminded to comprehend the premise) just how foolish I was to doubt the claims of massive impending doom and death.

I'm looking at the total number of deaths right now: 119,588.

That's not so far from 320k, as her very simple model predicted, particularly in exponential terms: it's less than two doublings away.

I didn't take the idea that it would continue to follow a purely exponential function, and I doubt JeanTate did either, but the idea that it was wildly off is ridiculous.

 

[marting]

Currently, the US case rate is rather peculiar.

Back in late February and early March, we were doubling cases every 2-3 days. With the imposition of social distancing in increasing numbers of states, by late March that dropped to about a 5-day doubling rate.

But for the last 7 days, the new case rate has been stuck at about 32,000/day, or very close to it.

On the one hand, it's clear that we've stopped the exponential growth, and that's all to the good (as well as being something of a relief).

On the other hand, we're not seeing anything that resembles a levelling off.

If we're not to project about a thousand deaths a day for however long it takes to develop a vaccine, we will apparently need to increase social isolation, not ease it as is being discussed.

Hard to say. The problem with testing is that it has been erratic and the false negatives are pretty high, perhaps 30%. Also, the number of tests has increased much faster than the case rate so the case rate will also increase. There's also a time lag between testing and getting a result. The percentage of the promised fast turnaround tests are currently very low. So there's a lag there as well.

A better indicator would be the number of people admitted to ICU but that's not reported nationally AFAIK.

 

[DevilsAdvocate]

I've been very concerned reading the last two days of several meat packing plants closing down, especially the Smithfield plant in South Dakota.


These places are not being closed by government decree, because they are essential work. They aren't being closed for lack of demand. In fact, they can't keep up with the demand. They aren't being closed for lack of supply. In fact, there is great concern that farmers will have no place to take animals to be turned into sausage with these plants closed down.

The only thing that is causing these plants to close is a worker shortage, because so many of them are sick. 300 Covid-19 cases at the Smithfield plant, which is 40% of the cases in South Dakota. (I don't know how many deaths.) Many meat packing facilities across the country have closed in the last few days, all because of sick workers.

I'm not sure that defeats Doghouse Riley's claim that the reactions are overblown. Are the covid numbers in Michigan any worse than a bad flu season? I don;t know. I can't find the numbers.

In the US, covid has not so far been any worse than a bad flu season, and it looks like it won't be. Plants don't close when they have a bunch of workers sick with the flu (although Michigan did close some schools due to a bad flu season a few years ago).

Is it really more sick workers, or plants closing because they have a few workers with covid and close down when they wouldn't if it was regular flu? Or workers not coming to work if there are reports of someone with covid when they would still show up for work if it was flu?

I'm not sure that plants closing is actually because of more sick people rather than a reaction to sick people that would not occur if this was regular flu.

 

[DevilsAdvocate]

Currently, the US case rate is rather peculiar.

Back in late February and early March, we were doubling cases every 2-3 days. With the imposition of social distancing in increasing numbers of states, by late March that dropped to about a 5-day doubling rate.

But for the last 7 days, the new case rate has been stuck at about 32,000/day, or very close to it.

On the one hand, it's clear that we've stopped the exponential growth, and that's all to the good (as well as being something of a relief).

On the other hand, we're not seeing anything that resembles a levelling off.

If we're not to project about a thousand deaths a day for however long it takes to develop a vaccine, we will apparently need to increase social isolation, not ease it as is being discussed.

Easter. I'm pretty sure it is Easter. The stop in the drop is people traveling and gather for the Easter holiday.We will probably see some upticks or leveling for the next week or so as people get symptoms and are tested for confirmed cases. Then it resumes the course (or maybe even declines are a slightly more rapid pace).

The US is on a decline and will continue that course. Just a temporary slightly less decline due to the holiday.

 

[TellyKNeasuss]

In the US, covid has not so far been any worse than a bad flu season, and it looks like it won't be.

I don't see how you can make such a claim. If the US took the measures every flu season that it's taken for COVID-19, there would either be a lot fewer deaths from flu or else social distancing doesn't have any impact on the spread of diseases. In a mild flu season, at least 10 percent of the population will get the flu. With a 0.4 percent fatality rate for COVID-19, that would mean more than 150,000 deaths, which would be extreme for a flu season.

 

[Bob001]

......
In the US, covid has not so far been any worse than a bad flu season, and it looks like it won't be. Plants don't close when they have a bunch of workers sick with the flu (although Michigan did close some schools due to a bad flu season a few years ago).
.....

The coronovirus is indisputably much deadlier than flu. If there are no more deaths than in a flu season, it's because the entire economy is mostly shut down and we're all staying home. What do you think the numbers would look like if otherwise?

 

[The Atheist]

3 days over 10% grow, but today was better. The progress in Japan is very strange indeed.

No kidding. And as far as I can, inexplicably so.

Will the Chinese easing of restrictions be sufficient to kick start their local economies without endangering their population?

Yes.

The rules they've instituted at workplaces and around life in general means they will be able to stomp on outbreaks.

It won't suit lots of people's agenda to make China look bad, but I'm pretty sure that's where they're headed. Authoritarian governments have their advantages.

Their biggest problem right now is they only have the domestic market to sell to.

Note that this is for the first wave, not all of 2020.

And hope like hell the second isn't worse than the first.

The coronovirus is indisputably much deadlier than flu. If there are no more deaths than in a flu season, it's because the entire economy is mostly shut down and we're all staying home. What do you think the numbers would look like if otherwise?

That's another good point that gets overlooked - infectious diseases of all other kinds will be down. I have no idea how many nursing home patients a year die from simple norovirus*, but I bet there are a fair few, and that won't be spreading around the oldies right now.

*Holy Zarquon, it's 25,000+ annually in USA alone!

 

[Meadmaker]

I'm not sure that defeats Doghouse Riley's claim that the reactions are overblown. Are the covid numbers in Michigan any worse than a bad flu season? I don;t know. I can't find the numbers.

In the US, covid has not so far been any worse than a bad flu season, and it looks like it won't be. Plants don't close when they have a bunch of workers sick with the flu (although Michigan did close some schools due to a bad flu season a few years ago).

Is it really more sick workers, or plants closing because they have a few workers with covid and close down when they wouldn't if it was regular flu? Or workers not coming to work if there are reports of someone with covid when they would still show up for work if it was flu?

I'm not sure that plants closing is actually because of more sick people rather than a reaction to sick people that would not occur if this was regular flu.

That's one possibility, that Covid drives fear in a way that flu did not.

I don't think that's the best explanation, but I can't prove that it's wrong.

 

[EHocking]

We will never know. Chinese number might have been suspicious in the past. But now it's clear they are manipulated. Basically 0 new cases in the whole China is simply impossible.

New reported cases and deaths over the past few days have not been zero.
The massive Y-axis range on a China chart is something like 10x that for a S.Korea chart. So detail will be lost. There were still 1000+ new cases report in China daily.
As I said, it is early days yet, we are yet to see what will happen in China.

Hammer and dance should look like South Korea.

The curve showing new cases for both countries are similar the exaggerated Y-axis of China's data just makes it difficult to compare. Also the gathering and collation of data is probably quite different between the two countries, as it is with many of the countries in any data collection on COVID, so grain of salt is to be taken with all estimates and assumptions anyway.

 

[The Atheist]

The first million cases took three months.

The second million will be recorded in the next 24 hours, all of twelve days later.

 

[Blue Mountain]

The US population is 10 times bigger, give or take, than Canada.

The true number is 8.6 times. However, I contend the growth curve is independent of the total population. It's possible that if Canada and the US had exactly the same population the US would still be seeing a greater number of deaths than Canada.

The US is more concentrated in urban centers

Evidence?

and,indeed, those are the areas being hardest hit. It would be hard not to hit higher raw numbers than other smaller countries. We are going into "the stratosphere" because we have more people.

I disagree; I think the USA going into the "stratosphere" because of a badly delayed initial response. Again, I contend the growth curve is independent of the total population (but it likely can be affected by extremes in population density.) Where population becomes important is the total number of people the virus can infect. In Canada it can't infect 40 million people simply because there aren't that many Canadians. But it can infect 40 million Americans (here's hoping it doesn't.)

But deaths per 1M in the US are at 71 according to worldmeter, right now; that's not "stratospheric" in the context of other countries who are seeing some staggering numbers. Consider Spain at 377 deaths per 1M. Italy, 338. UK, 167. By that measure, the US is doing OK, Canada even better. The US could have done better and Canada responded better than we did. No argument from me on that count. But looking at one graph and freaking out about "stratospheric" numbers is misleading.

I agree on your criticism of "stratospheric." In raw numbers the US deaths looks pretty bad, but as a function of total population the US is doing pretty well. Overall Europe seems to have a death rate of 107 per million population while the US is at 71. I'm a bit fuzzy on the European rate because Wikipedia lists Europe's population as 746.4 million, but I don't know if that includes all of Russia or only the part that's in Europe.

 

[carlosy]

A lot of people infected with Covid-19 are not having any symptoms at all.
How does this compare with the regular flu?
Is it similar to the flu or is this exceptional for a corona virus?

 

[EHocking]

A lot of people infected with Covid-19 are not having any symptoms at all.
How does this compare with the regular flu?
Is it similar to the flu or is this exceptional for a corona virus?

Possibly.
The CDC claims up to 50%, UK's NHS up to 75% asymptomatic flu cases.
The WHO says that up to 80% of COVID-19 cases may be mild or asymptomatic.