Cont: 2019-nCoV / Corona virus Pt 3

[ProBonoShill]

Hard to tell. I don't trust China's numbers one bit.

Nor do I, along with North Korea and Russia. There's a few others to add to the list.

Some are on purpose, others due to lack of resources.

 

[ProBonoShill]

Sorry, I've been unable to visit ISF in awhile and now realize my recent posts are somewhat argumentative and not overly helpful. During normal times and in the right forum this would be fine, but in light of our current difficulties I'd rather not add to the problem.

Please be safe, the numbers seem to be improving, let's hope they continue that way.

Cheers

 

[Planigale]

Show I could show the absurdity of your anecdotal evidence.




No but you can get a rough idea. Trying to cause hysteria by posting the tripe you did isn't helpful to anyone.





You first.

What Toronto hospital does "your friend" work at where "2/3 of patients on ICU die"??? Toronto has 25 hospitals, as I type this Toronto has 77 deaths. Not all patients died while in ICU at a Toronto hospital. How many people died at your friends hospital while in ICU?



Province of Ontario?

Math is hard.

A detailed report on ICU admissions in Ontario obtained by the National Post hints at a positive trend. It includes both confirmed and suspected coronavirus cases and shows a peak on April 2 of 538 possible COVID-19 sufferers in critical care. The number has remained at between about 500 and 535 since then – out of a total number of ICU patients that stood at 1,321 on Thursday.

1321 x .66 = 871 deaths in Ontario, not even close. But please disclose the name of the hospital where your friend works so we can expose what an incompetent boob he is.

Oh and please stop posting reckless nonsense, creating unnecessary hysteria helps no one.

I previously posted a link to ICNARC which is a weekly summary of Covid-19 admissions to UK ICU (excluding Scotland). The UK figures currently (and they may change) show 70% mortality if you need mechanical ventilation on ICU. If you can avoid mechanical ventilation on ICU but require ICU admission (e.g. Boris Johnson) mortality is 30%.

ETA it also gives comparisons with other viral e.g. flu pneumonias; covid-19 has a fatality rate roughly twice that of flu pneumonia.

 

[Matthew Best]

An account of how early action by the mayor of San Francisco -- in the face of outraged opposition -- saved the city from the fate of NYC, New Orleans, etc.
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/04/coronavirus-san-francisco-london-breed/609808/

London Breed? Wow, that's a cool name.

 

[ProBonoShill]

I previously posted a link to ICNARC which is a weekly summary of Covid-19 admissions to UK ICU (excluding Scotland). The UK figures currently (and they may change) show 70% mortality if you need mechanical ventilation on ICU. If you can avoid mechanical ventilation on ICU but require ICU admission (e.g. Boris Johnson) mortality is 30%.

ETA it also gives comparisons with other viral e.g. flu pneumonias; covid-19 has a fatality rate roughly twice that of flu pneumonia.

And this relates to claims made concerning a hospital in Toronto how?

 

[ProBonoShill]

For those believing the BS coming from China:

"I think it is a coordinated effort from (the) Chinese government to control (the) narrative, and paint it as if the outbreak did not originate in China," the researcher told CNN. "And I don't think they will really tolerate any objective study to investigate the origination of this disease."

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/12/asia/china-coronavirus-research-restrictions-intl-hnk/index.html

 

[Andy_Ross]

Fifty million pints of beer going to waste.

 

[Belz...]

Nonsense. There's no theoretical reason we can't stay in lockdown forever. We have the technology, only the will is wanting.

Are you seriously under the impression that all jobs are currently automated?

You realise that the food industry requires quite a bit of humans to work, right? What do you think happens without food?

What are you even talking about? With this and the question of China's numbers, I'm getting the impression that you're playing contrarian, but for the life of me I can't imagine why.

 

[Cheetah]

Coronavirus: Out of Many, One
What the US Federal Government and the States Should Do to Fight the Coronavirus

Tomas Pueyo thinks there might be reason to believe less deaths lead to a better economic outcome.
Bad news for countries letting it run its course and those who reacted much too late (if true).

 

[JesseCuster]

Hmmm death numbers in Toronto still below those stated in the post I responded to, Math is hard.

But your numbers were, in fact, entirely made up. You claimed to be basing your argument about deaths in ICU units in Toronto on "accurate figures", when what you're done was pulled some numbers out of thin air, and conclude something based upon that.

There was nothing "accurate" about your numbers. I'll even quote the post of yours I was addressing:

Toronto has 25+ hospitals and Ontario has 37 deaths total as I type this (vast majority from retirement/nursing homes). Canada as a country- 109 deaths.

Let's use conservative numbers and say every Toronto hospital only has 10 critical cases, that's 250 ICU patients, which based on your hearsay means 165 people have died in Toronto alone, not even close to being true.

Hopefully your imaginary ICU physician is better at treating respiratory illness than he is at math.

Emphasis mine.

Can you explain how the part in italics involves "accurate numbers"? They look made up to me. I accused you of using made up numbers in your post, not accurate numbers. I'm right, those numbers are made up, not accurate.

 

[Darat]

For those believing the BS coming from China:

"I think it is a coordinated effort from (the) Chinese government to control (the) narrative, and paint it as if the outbreak did not originate in China," the researcher told CNN. "And I don't think they will really tolerate any objective study to investigate the origination of this disease."

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/12/asia/china-coronavirus-research-restrictions-intl-hnk/index.html

Yet from the beginning of the Chinese authorities admitting the detail of the outbreak they have stated the origin of the disease to be in China. So who ever came out with that quote is either totally stupid or a liar.

 

[William Parcher]

Washington Post: China reports highest number of new coronavirus cases in six weeks.

 

[PartSkeptic]

But it doesn't have to be one or the other. Trying to 'save' the economy by balancing it against Covide-19 deaths could just put it more 'in the crap'. Countries in lockdown are proving that we can stop people from dying and still have a viable economy.

What will go down the crapper is an economy that relies on more and more on unnecessary consumption. Things like international tourism, long commutes just to sit in an office all day, excessive waste and over-eating have large costs that we have ignored when talking about economic 'growth'. Until now.

They say every cloud has a silver lining. Covid-19 is giving us a unique opportunity to rethink how we run our economies. Ideas that were unthinkable a few months ago are now a reality - and they are working! Pity it took thousands of deaths to make us start seeing it, but that's humans for you...

Good post. I agree.

 

[PartSkeptic]

Nonsense. There's no theoretical reason we can't stay in lockdown forever. We have the technology, only the will is wanting.

Indefinite lock-down is possible if the virus is prevented from transmitting from one human to another via any path (everyone in a bubble). Theoretically possible but human nature is the problem.

 

[TellyKNeasuss]

From their report to WHO, fatality rate in Iceland is currently .47% 100*(8/1689)

With a fatality rate of 0.47%, if SARS-COV-2 had been allowed to run its course with no mitigation steps, with the claimed 60 percent infection rate before herd immunity put a stop to it there would have been over 900,000 deaths in the US. If it instead behaved like a typical influenza outbreak and infected 10-15 percent, that would have meant 155,000-227,000 deaths in the US (though given the lack of immunity to SARS-COV-2 in the general population and the lack of a vaccine, one would expect it to infect a higher percentage than influenza).

Given the high age dependence of fatalities from COVID-19, it shouldn't be assumed that the CFR will be the same in every country. If I did the estimations correctly (a 50-50 chance), while Italy currently has a per capita fatality rate about 5 times that of the US, for the under 60 population it is around 2 times. Iceland is one of the youngest countries in the west and should be expected to have one of the lowest CFRs.

 

[Dr.Sid]

With a fatality rate of 0.47%, if SARS-COV-2 had been allowed to run its course with no mitigation steps, with the claimed 60 percent infection rate before herd immunity put a stop to it there would have been over 900,000 deaths in the US. If it instead behaved like a typical influenza outbreak and infected 10-15 percent, that would have meant 155,000-227,000 deaths in the US (though given the lack of immunity to SARS-COV-2 in the general population and the lack of a vaccine, one would expect it to infect a higher percentage than influenza).

Given the high age dependence of fatalities from COVID-19, it shouldn't be assumed that the CFR will be the same in every country. If I did the estimations correctly (a 50-50 chance), while Italy currently has a per capita fatality rate about 5 times that of the US, for the under 60 population it is around 2 times. Iceland is one of the youngest countries in the west and should be expected to have one of the lowest CFRs.

Also if that 0.47% is confirmed cases. Flu data which are usually thrown around typically include secondary deaths. People who were not confirmed flu cases when they died. Those number are deduced form increase in deaths in the flu season. Confirmed flu cases are usually about 10 times lower than even that.

So to compare this to flu properly, we have to compare the same numbers. And also wait till Covid season is over, or the year ends.

 

[Squeegee Beckenheim]

I'm posting when I'm only through page 59 of 62, but in case someone hasn't pointed it out already in the interim, we will probably never know the true death counts in many areas, as a number of places don't test deaths at home, and therefore don't count them. Even if you're hospitalized, if you die before testing, they aren't bothering to test.

By many areas, I don't mean struggling countries in the usual sense, I mean the UK https://twitter.com/laineydoyle/status/1249127908876128259 and NYC.

When the dust settles we'll be able to have an idea of the impact by looking at how many more people died than was typical for that particular time of year. Of course, that won't tell us how many of those deaths were directly from covid-19 and how many were indirect. But it should give us a fair idea of how many people died who otherwise wouldn't have.

 

[Pixel42]

When the dust settles we'll be able to have an idea of the impact by looking at how many more people died than was typical for that particular time of year. Of course, that won't tell us how many of those deaths were directly from covid-19 and how many were indirect. But it should give us a fair idea of how many people died who otherwise wouldn't have.

Even then there are confounding factors, like less traffic on the roads meaning fewer road accidents, and reductions in air pollution resulting in fewer deaths from, ironically, respiratory illnesses. The latter might be quite significant in places like Wuhan.

 

[Planigale]

Even then there are confounding factors, like less traffic on the roads meaning fewer road accidents, and reductions in air pollution resulting in fewer deaths from, ironically, respiratory illnesses. The latter might be quite significant in places like Wuhan.

Anecdotally there are far fewer admissions to hospitals with breathing problems. We may have a natural experiment on the impact of pollutants and respiratory disease. One outcome may be an accelerated movement to banning the internal combustion engine* and moving to electric vehicles, when it becomes apparent how many lives have been saved by the lock down from non-coved-19 conditions. (*Together with other sources of air borne pollutants).

 

[Mader Levap]

Yet from the beginning of the Chinese authorities admitting the detail of the outbreak they have stated the origin of the disease to be in China. So who ever came out with that quote is either totally stupid or a liar.

There is something called "gaslighting", you know. But yeah, let's trust totalitarian government of China.