Cont: 2019-nCoV / Corona virus Pt 3

[Belz...]

The entire point of my post was that the emergency accomodations weren't needed. What are we disagreeing about?

I'm disagreeing with your general claim that it's leveling off as if that means it's all downhill from here. This virus isn't going away.

 

[Roger Ramjets]

The total number of confirmed cases and the total number of deaths can only ever increase, of course. The media will use that to stretch out the "it's not over, you know" message for as long as necessary.

Because it won't be. The number of actual cases will always be higher than the number of known cases, and until they are all either dead or recovered they are still a risk - perhaps not even then.

But after that, should the media stop reminding us of it because that was (literally) yesterday's news? I bet Trump wants them to.

Even when it's 'over' it won't be over. Many people classified as 'recovered' will subsequently die sooner than they should have, and many associated deaths will not be counted. When the final count is in (several years from now) it will be much higher than the official figure. Should that be news? Or is it just 'stretching it out'?

 

[novaphile]

This does absolutely nothing to prove or even give any evidence whatsoever that the social distance measure were warranted. You're doing nothing with this exercise but assuming that that is the case.

No need to assume anything.

We're seeing what happens to places that don't do it.

And we're seeing the drop in new cases after measures are brought in.

 

[chrispy]

Interesting article on the politicizing of data from Politico. It speaks to the way that anyone can bend numbers for any argument, no matter how far removed from reality as well as the trust gap between Republicans and science.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/04/10/trump-coronavirus-data-modeling-179226

 

[novaphile]

Out of interest.

Can anyone point to the source of
"Emergency Accommodation is not being used"

I ask, because I'm hearing the opposite.

 

[Doghouse Reilly]

Out of interest.

Can anyone point to the source of
"Emergency Accommodation is not being used"

I ask, because I'm hearing the opposite.

You tell us, I haven't seen a single person say that. What is the source of your quote? You don't know whom you're quoting?

 

[Roger Ramjets]

No need to assume anything.

We're seeing what happens to places that don't do it.

And we're seeing the drop in new cases after measures are brought in.

Correlation isn't causation. The drop in new cases was going to happen anyway! It's just random chance that only places that did it saw a drop. Prove me wrong.

/Covid-19 denier

 

[Doghouse Reilly]

Yeah, and why do astronauts do space walks in space suits? They are always doing these spacewalks and they never seem to die of asphyxiation. Maybe they don’t need them after all.

Too poor of an analogy to even bother with.

 

[Roger Ramjets]

Oh, I understand that. But the emergency accomodations in the parks and convention center were not needed, yet were used several times as "proof" that this was something extremely serious.

Where?

Whether or not it is, that was not proof of it one way or the other.

Oh what a tangled web we weave, when first we practice to deceive.

 

[Doghouse Reilly]

This NY Times article gives a pretty clear picture of the extent of use of the emergency hospital preparations.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.ny...egion/new-york-coronavirus-hospitals.amp.html

 

[Doghouse Reilly]

Where?

Oh what a tangled web we weave, when first we practice to deceive.

In this very thread. More than once. Am I supposed to reread the entire thread to find it for you?

Don't have any idea what the point or relevance is of the aphorism is that you quoted.

 

[angrysoba]

Too poor of an analogy to even bother with.

Oh come now. Everyone else has been humouring you on your arguments that it is just like the flu, and emergency measures and precautions are not necessary. Now you have the gall to say that someone else's arguments are beneath you?

 

[Andy_Ross]

The number of people confirmed to have had coronavirus and died in the UK has risen by 980 to 8,958.

 

[marting]

The number of people confirmed to have had coronavirus and died in the UK has risen by 980 to 8,958.

The U of W website just updated UK projections It's their first update after expanding coverage to EU states. The projections for deaths are down strongly.


37,494 COVID-19 deaths, with 95% range from 26k to 63k

From their update notes:

Since our last release, we have been able to include four more days of reported daily deaths for the UK (April 6, 7, 8, 9). The combination of a slower increase in daily deaths reported than previously captured and updated values for gamma based on more locations’ COVID-19 epidemics peaking (as described above) has resulted in notably lower average projections for the UK: at the same predicted peak date for daily COVID-19 deaths, the prediction is now 1,674 deaths (estimate range of 651 to 4,143) on the peak day and 37,494 cumulative deaths (estimate range of 26,149 to 62,519) through the first wave.

OTOH, projections for the USA are up slightly:

61,545 (estimate range of 26,487 to 155,315)

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

 

[Doghouse Reilly]

Oh come now. Everyone else has been humouring you on your arguments that it is just like the flu, and emergency measures and precautions are not necessary. Now you have the gall to say that someone else's arguments are beneath you?

Yes.

 

[rjh01]

The various numbers I have mentioned today, deaths, deaths predicted, numbers of cases, etc. are known to the point that I didn't feel the need to include links. Here is one for the 60K prediction: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/poli...says-social-distancing-is-working/ar-BB12oHEl


100,000 by the end of April? Are you sure you want to predict that? It just seems very unlikely given the numbers we are seeing now.


I'm not aware of anyone who has made a 10 day prediction other than you, most concern the year end total. Would you care to make a prediction on that?

Thanks for the link (and the others, such as sir drinks-a-lot who also provided it.). This assumes that there will be no new infections in USA and all new cases will be from exposure that has already happened. Australia introduced a lockdown on 23 March. This cut down new cases to 30% of the previous numbers. This is now steady, so unless the USA's lockdown is even more effective than Australia's then the projection is optimistic.

One point of clarification. the 60k prediction is the number of deaths in USA by 4 August.

No, I would not like to make any more predictions this month. There are far too many unknowns. Like how effective will the lockdown be? How soon before a vaccine is given to everyone? Will the lockdown be removed too soon?

Edit. Just taken another look at the link. They agree there is a lot of uncertainty about the future. Example the number of deaths at the end of April they give as between 25-100,000.

 

[Doghouse Reilly]

Thanks for the link (and the others, such as sir drinks-a-lot who also provided it.). This assumes that there will be no new infections in USA and all new cases will be from exposure that has already happened. Australia introduced a lockdown on 23 March. This cut down new cases to 30% of the previous numbers. This is now steady, so unless the USA's lockdown is even more effective than Australia's then the projection is optimistic.

One point of clarification. the 60k prediction is the number of deaths in USA by 4 August.

No, I would not like to make any more predictions this month. There are far too many unknowns. Like how effective will the lockdown be? How soon before a vaccine is given to everyone? Will the lockdown be removed too soon?

All the scientists I've seen discuss the issue say there is virtually zero chance of a vaccine this year.

ETA: At least not one ready for mass use.

 

[Ulf Nereng]

All the scientists I've seen discuss the issue say there is virtually zero chance of a vaccine this year.

ETA: At least not one ready for mass use.

No, but many already existing anti-virals are being tested, and with a bit of luck that could change the situation a lot in favor of us humans. Perhaps one could turn out to be a useful prophylactic, or another could save a majority of those who contract the disease. There is a huge global research effort going on, and results could be forthcoming much sooner than for a vaccine.

 

[marting]

Thanks for the link (and the others, such as sir drinks-a-lot who also provided it.). This assumes that there will be no new infections in USA and all new cases will be from exposure that has already happened. Australia introduced a lockdown on 23 March. This cut down new cases to 30% of the previous numbers. This is now steady, so unless the USA's lockdown is even more effective than Australia's then the projection is optimistic.

One point of clarification. the 60k prediction is the number of deaths in USA by 4 August.

No, I would not like to make any more predictions this month. There are far too many unknowns. Like how effective will the lockdown be? How soon before a vaccine is given to everyone? Will the lockdown be removed too soon?

Edit. Just taken another look at the link. They agree there is a lot of uncertainty about the future. Example the number of deaths at the end of April they give as between 25-100,000.

Just a point of clarification. The U of W model they use (see my link above) has been updated since that article. Also, it does not assume new infections don't occur and all new cases are from previous infections. It does assume R has been reduced to somewhere around .4 and that there are around 10k more infections yet to occur as the epidemic exponentially decays.

I'm somewhat more optimistic re the USA overall. We are closer to the Germans in that a smaller portion of people live in multigenerational housing which is why I'm guessing the first phase will come in around 50k.

But you are quite right to note that their uncertainty spread is quite large and up to 155k on the high side. Also, it is only for the first phase and doesn't include new breakouts that will occur when restrictions are eased. I'm guessing 10k to 15k additional for all of 2020.

 

[alfaniner]

The number of people confirmed to have had coronavirus and died in the UK has risen by 980 to 8,958.

At some point, I think just rounding up is OK. By now, the numbers are so large and increasing exponentially that they will change in minutes.