Cont: 2019-nCoV / Corona virus Pt 3

[Doghouse Reilly]

Ah, another poster who thinks that everyone thinks the same as them, and that disagreement must therefore stem from dishonesty?

If I'm telling you that I don't understand, you have no reason to assume that I do.



Where in the hell did you see that in my post?

The entire point of my post was that the emergency accomodations weren't needed. What are we disagreeing about?

 

[JeanTate]

Oh please. It must be fun knocking strawmen down. I made sure to get firm clarification that the claims of massive death were ASSUMING the social distancing. So get out of here with that nonsense. And get out of here with your bogus claims of "conspiracy theory." Show me a single post where I insinuated anything even remotely resembling such a thing.

“Social distancing” is not like electron spin.

As has been noted. By several ISF members. More than once.

And the differing experiences of different places is evidence for the multi-dimensional nature of this concept: S Korea, Hong Kong, Australia, ... China.

 

[EHocking]

Do you have a link? Preferably to an Icelandic source (I.e. from Iceland, not in Icelandic).

Without knowing the details - tests, roll-out, objectives, etc - I think it’s hard to evaluate the plan. FWIW, the epidemiologists etc in Iceland who are directly involved are probably very smart, and have lots of experience and expertise ...

I found an Icelandic gov site while in a discussion on another thread.

https://www.covid.is/english

 

[Doghouse Reilly]

Look at South Korea. Country which numbers we can trust, and which as only one so far is safely behind the initial peak.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-korea/

New dalily cases peaked around March 1st. At that time South Korea had 21 deaths. Today, month later and something, they have 204.

The counts are sadly far from over.

Oh, I understand that. But the emergency accomodations in the parks and convention center were not needed, yet were used several times as "proof" that this was something extremely serious. Whether or not it is, that was not proof of it one way or the other.

 

[JesseCuster]

Whatever you say. And yet somehow, I'll have been right and you wrong. Interesting.

The sources you've been quoting don't have much a track record so far.

e.g. in the UK it's no worse than a bad season flu and no more than 8,000 will die, that the fatality rate might be as low as 0.01%, and that pneumonia rates have mysteriously plummeted.

I really do hope you're right and this turns out to be nowhere near a bad as some of the earlier projections, I don't want millions to die from this, but I'm getting frustrated with supposed scientists and other sources online that are determined to downplay the pandemic in a way that they've very much been already proven wrong about.

What's going on in some regions - Italy, Spain, France, UK, New York - is clearly something much worse than a flu season, but thankfully at least some of these region seem to be hitting the peak or getting over it (from what I see, I hope I'm right).

 

[JeanTate]

This does absolutely nothing to prove or even give any evidence whatsoever that the social distance measure were warranted. You're doing nothing with this exercise but assuming that that is the case.

And yet you seem reluctant to even consider the Ruby Princess (Australia), for example, much less discuss it. Or Singapore. Or Hong Kong. Or ...

Why is that?

 

[rjh01]

This seems like a good time to quote this post from 4-1.

Surprise, the total today is not 2,000,000, but 466,396. People who doubted the predictions are not necessarily idiots.



Take for example Doghouse Reilly's prediction of less than 85,000 deaths which was roundly excoriated just last week. The official prediction for US deaths is now 60,000.


Yes, preventative measures have helped, this was known last week and it was known 10 days ago.


Several weeks ago I predicted less than 70,000 deaths in the US. The response was that since I had no qualifications at all (true) I was just an idiot denier and I should shut up.

Thanks for quoting me. Looks like the US has managed to slow the spread of the virus. That is why I am out by a factor of 4. Has anyone else made any predictions that were more accurate than mine? I doubt it. I think there will be 100,000 deaths in the US by the end of April. Would be much higher if they had not already slowed the spread of the virus already. So much higher than the 60,000 deaths you have quoted (from where?).

 

[TellyKNeasuss]

Of course. My current estimate is 50k deaths through 5/1/20 and an additional 5-15k deaths through the end of 2020.

Where I differ from Doghouse is that absent the social distancing measures, there would be 1M+ deaths in the USA.

I am sure that I am going to regret getting sucked into this thread, but here it goes:

The Heinsberg study found 2 percent were infected, 14 percent had anti-bodies, and 0.37 percent had died. Applying this data to the US and assuming that the 14 percent with anti-bodies did not include the 2 percent currently infected, the US would see about 195,000 deaths. That would be the low end, unless someone can come up with a reason why a virus would be transmitted more readily in Germany than in the US. Accepting this as the low estimate would imply accepting that the mitigation measures imposed in Germany did not reduce the number of people in Heinsberg who got infected (which IMHO is highly unlikely).

At the high end, if herd immunity stopped the spread after 60 percent were infected, the 0.37 percent CFR would mean around 730,000 deaths.

 

[sir drinks-a-lot]

And yet you seem reluctant to even consider the Ruby Princess (Australia), for example, much less discuss it. Or Singapore. Or Hong Kong. Or ...

What are you basing this upon?

 

[JeanTate]

Oh, I understand that. But the emergency accomodations in the parks and convention center were not needed, yet were used several times as "proof" that this was something extremely serious. Whether or not it is, that was not proof of it one way or the other.

As I wrote earlier, you get high marks for chutzpah.

I guess I should tip my hat to your masterful ability to so clearly (and blatantly) distort and misrepresent what other ISF members have written, not to mention true experts (yes, some who have posted here are among the true experts).

 

[JeanTate]

What are you basing this upon?

Um, your lack of posts on these topics?

 

[sir drinks-a-lot]

Thanks for quoting me. Looks like the US has managed to slow the spread of the virus. That is why I am out by a factor of 4. Has anyone else made any predictions that were more accurate than mine? I doubt it. I think there will be 100,000 deaths in the US by the end of April. Would be much higher if they had not already slowed the spread of the virus already. So much higher than the 60,000 deaths you have quoted (from where?).

The 60k figure is coming from the [url="https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america']IMHE model[/URL] that Trump's Administration is using.

 

[sir drinks-a-lot]

Um, your lack of posts on these topics?

A lack of posting on a topic doesn't not equate to being reluctant to even consider the topic.

 

[JesseCuster]

The 60k figure is coming from the [url="https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america']IMHE model[/URL] that Trump's Administration is using.

Bad link, try this:

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

 

[JeanTate]

The sources you've been quoting don't have much a track record so far.

e.g. in the UK it's no worse than a bad season flu and no more than 8,000 will die, that the fatality rate might be as low as 0.01%, and that pneumonia rates have mysteriously plummeted.

I really do hope you're right and this turns out to be nowhere near a bad as some of the earlier projections, I don't want millions to die from this, but I'm getting frustrated with supposed scientists and other sources online that are determined to downplay the pandemic in a way that they've very much been already proven wrong about.

What's going on in some regions - Italy, Spain, France, UK, New York - is clearly something much worse than a flu season, but thankfully at least some of these region seem to be hitting the peak or getting over it (from what I see, I hope I'm right).

This.

A relevant comparison might by flu deaths, in NYC, over a month or so. A typical flu season does not see such dramatic (relative) differences as NYC vs Cincinnati, say, so far this couple of months.

 

[Marcus]

Thanks for quoting me. Looks like the US has managed to slow the spread of the virus. That is why I am out by a factor of 4. Has anyone else made any predictions that were more accurate than mine? I doubt it. I think there will be 100,000 deaths in the US by the end of April. Would be much higher if they had not already slowed the spread of the virus already. So much higher than the 60,000 deaths you have quoted (from where?).

The various numbers I have mentioned today, deaths, deaths predicted, numbers of cases, etc. are known to the point that I didn't feel the need to include links. Here is one for the 60K prediction: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/poli...says-social-distancing-is-working/ar-BB12oHEl


100,000 by the end of April? Are you sure you want to predict that? It just seems very unlikely given the numbers we are seeing now.


I'm not aware of anyone who has made a 10 day prediction other than you, most concern the year end total. Would you care to make a prediction on that?

 

[Marcus]

I understand the argument that Fauci is not credible because he is part of the administration. I just don't see how it would be in his best interest to fake this number given that the truth will come out soon enough.


Edit: I believe this is the original source, a study from the University of Washington https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

 

[Ulf Nereng]

Bad link, try this:

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

The prediction has a pretty large cone of uncertainty. Upper bound at 155k and lower bound 23k by june.

 

[angrysoba]

For all those who tried to use the preparations in NY as "proof." This is exactly what I was talking about when I said that making makeshift hospital capacity in parks wasn't proof of a pandemic any more than putting out sandbags is proof there's a storm a' brewing. I was derided and looked at as a fool, yet here we are, they don't even need the excess capacity.

It sure made for good television though!:



Maybe people should stop assuming that just because someone sees something differently it doesn't make them a fool.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.ny...nyregion/coronavirus-new-york-update.amp.html

Yeah, and why do astronauts do space walks in space suits? They are always doing these spacewalks and they never seem to die of asphyxiation. Maybe they don’t need them after all.

 

[chrispy]

Here we go... a hotel in my town is now under quarantine. Only 4 guests are currently there, but they are not allowed to leave their rooms. Food is being delivered to their doorsteps. No confirmations, but hey, let's see what happens.