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Cont: 2019-nCoV / Corona virus Pt 3

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JesseCuster said:
The only part of the article I took issue with was the exact part of the article you quoted. The death toll in the UK is currently over 7,000 and in 1 or 2 days will overtake the 8,000 figure he says he feels it won't pass. He's simply way, way off here. This article is just one of many opinions I've come across online determined to equate the COVID-19 pandemic to something like seasonal flu. Even if it's nowhere near as bad as the worst case scenarios being thrown around, he (and others) are grossly downplaying the seriousness of it.

I never had a go at you for agreeing with anything else in the article, never mind "every last detail". I simply corrected the part of the article you went to the trouble of quoting.
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Current projections are that UK deaths will exceed those in the USA. IHME is projecting 66k deaths, about 10% more and peaking 3 days later than the USA. This is consistent with the UK distancing being done several days later. It's also much higher a percentage of the population than the USA which probably also benefits from lower population density.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-kingdom
 
The Atheist said:
Yep. They're definitely over the hump - mind you, that was obvious when they started taking other patients and lending equipment.
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(About Germany.) Last Friday the head of the Robert Koch Institute said in his press briefing that the reproduction number was around 1. But now (yesterday morning) he apparantly said that it's gone up a bit (to between 1.2 and 1.5). Not sure what that's based on: the figures on Worldometer don't seem to show this.

Ah: found their daily report, which gives 1.2 most recently (range 0.9-1.6).
 
Today's numbers for Michigan are in. Slightly less than 1400 new cases today. That's the smallest since March 31. Flattening the curve? I think it's a good sign.

We had 1900 five days ago, and 1700 yesterday, with all other days in April close to 1500.

Definitely getting away from the exponential growth, if it holds up.

ETA: Looks like US overall numbers might also be down, and New York definitely down. Deaths are up, but they lag behind new cases.

ETA2: Spoke too soon. I checked again, and Nevada reported 22,000 new cases, which pushes the US overall numbers way higher. Presumably a change in the way reporting is done. Definitely needs investigation.

ETA3: I have to wonder if there's a data entry error on the site I'm looking at for Nevada. I would think that would be major headline news. Seems suspicious.

ETA4: And...the data entry error is fixed, Nevada is back to where it ought to be, and that means fewer new cases for the US today than yesterday, although it seems different states report differently. New York goes up throughout the day, but Michigan reports in one big block sometime in the mid afternoon, so there could be more cases coming in today.
 
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marting said:
Current projections are that UK deaths will exceed those in the USA. IHME is projecting 66k deaths, about 10% more and peaking 3 days later than the USA. This is consistent with the UK distancing being done several days later. It's also much higher a percentage of the population than the USA which probably also benefits from lower population density.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-kingdom
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Wow. That's a bleak outlook.

I really hope things don't get anywhere near that bad.
 
The Atheist said:
And just to keep everyone on their toes, a predictable side effect of the shutdowns: rats!

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-52177587
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I suggest that many of these rats will starve to death. Areas that used to have rats will soon be rat free. Even areas where the rats went to will soon have the same numbers as before. Exceptions
1. If humans provide food for the rats when they did not before, they will breed.
2. Pest control may kill off many rats.

The only good news for the rats is that when humans go back to normal the rats will start to breed again and will return to normal numbers.
 
JesseCuster said:
Wow. That's a bleak outlook.

I really hope things don't get anywhere near that bad.
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Me too. Shows just how important shutdowns/social distancing timing is.

For instance if the USA had delayed shutdown for a week, we would be looking at a projected 200K-300K deaths instead of 60k. On the opposite side, if the USA had shutdown 3/12 instead of 3/19 the totals would be closer to 10k.

Such is exponential growth/decay.
 
marting said:
Current projections are that UK deaths will exceed those in the USA. IHME is projecting 66k deaths, about 10% more and peaking 3 days later than the USA. This is consistent with the UK distancing being done several days later. It's also much higher a percentage of the population than the USA which probably also benefits from lower population density.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-kingdom
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As I posted on another thread the model is wrong. It predicts current UK need is for 12,000 ITU beds and 10,000 ventilators as against 800 available ITU beds, Yet currently the country is sitting with empty ITU beds (even in London). It predicts 1200 deaths against 800 actual deaths. So empirically this model is wrong and you should not rely on its predictions.
 
rjh01 said:
I suggest that many of these rats will starve to death. Areas that used to have rats will soon be rat free. Even areas where the rats went to will soon have the same numbers as before. Exceptions
1. If humans provide food for the rats when they did not before, they will breed.
2. Pest control may kill off many rats.

The only good news for the rats is that when humans go back to normal the rats will start to breed again and will return to normal numbers.
Click to expand...

Also the urban foxes will be having litters, the rats will provide a nice food source for the foxes.
 
marting said:
Current projections are that UK deaths will exceed those in the USA. IHME is projecting 66k deaths, about 10% more and peaking 3 days later than the USA. This is consistent with the UK distancing being done several days later. It's also much higher a percentage of the population than the USA which probably also benefits from lower population density.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-kingdom
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They're forecasting 401 deaths totals for here in Ireland (with uncertainty ranging from 329 to 501)

Given that the currently death tool here is up to 235, that sounds like a good outcome for the future if we can keep total deaths down to twice or less than twice what they currently are.
 
Planigale said:
Also the urban foxes will be having litters, the rats will provide a nice food source for the foxes.
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Good thought. You can extend that idea too. A hungry rat goes up to a cat (or dog) and asks to be fed. Cat thinks the rat is offering itself for dinner and so has an easy meal. Though cats do need training on how to kill a rat as they can fight back. So cats and dogs will have some more food. But this would only be temporary. Once the rats have died so will the foxes, who will also have issues with lack of food.
 
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Planigale said:
As I posted on another thread the model is wrong. It predicts current UK need is for 12,000 ITU beds and 10,000 ventilators as against 800 available ITU beds, Yet currently the country is sitting with empty ITU beds (even in London). It predicts 1200 deaths against 800 actual deaths. So empirically this model is wrong and you should not rely on its predictions.
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The model certainly isn't accurate in terms of EU medical requirement projections. In fact it appears the medical supply projections are stamped in place based on American models. Expanding coverage into the EU is only a few days old. In many cities in the USA required ITU facilities also exceeds that which is available. What's unknown is if this is factored into the projected deaths and if so whether those factors are reasonably predictive.

OTOH, if there are 800 deaths and only 799 available ITU beds, the implication is that people that died didn't spend very much time at all in ITU beds.

This is clearly very different from the American models.
 
Not sure if this has been posted yet (my home quarantine is over and started working again so a little less free time, it's hard to keep up with this fast moving thread!):

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/07/climate/air-pollution-coronavirus-covid.html

It's about the impact of air pollution on the severity of covid19 outcomes. Apparently it's a pretty important variable. For those looking at different outcomes across regions, this could potentially explain some difference in fatality rates.
 
marting said:
The model certainly isn't accurate in terms of EU medical requirement projections. In fact it appears the medical supply projections are stamped in place based on American models. Expanding coverage into the EU is only a few days old. In many cities in the USA required ITU facilities also exceeds that which is available. What's unknown is if this is factored into the projected deaths and if so whether those factors are reasonably predictive.

OTOH, if there are 800 deaths and only 799 available ITU beds, the implication is that people that died didn't spend very much time at all in ITU beds.

This is clearly very different from the American models.
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Yes since most deaths are in the very elderly with chronic health problems we know from past experience that if these people go on a ventilator for pneumonia they do not survive, and the outcome for covid-19 is worse than usual pneumonias. The truth is elderly frail patients with heart or lung disease who develop pneumonia don't get ventilated in the UK regardless of covid-19. So my guess is many of those who die are never admitted to ITU.
 
Planigale said:
Yes since most deaths are in the very elderly with chronic health problems we know from past experience that if these people go on a ventilator for pneumonia they do not survive, and the outcome for covid-19 is worse than usual pneumonias. The truth is elderly frail patients with heart or lung disease who develop pneumonia don't get ventilated in the UK regardless of covid-19. So my guess is many of those who die are never admitted to ITU.
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It is. I've read that 80% of COVID-19 cases that go on the ventilator die, and worse, they spend many more days on it than pneumonia cases. There's some question as to whether ventilators may even do more harm that good for COVID. Some places are experimenting with adding N2O to O2 as an alternative. No data on the results but an interesting alternative.
 
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