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Cont: 2019-nCoV / Corona virus Pt 3

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Much sunnier, I should know, I live here.

I did know that - I was being facetious while tipping my hat to my own theory that vitamin D plays a big part in better outcomes.

I'd say a hell of a lot more New Yorkers are vitamin D deficient at the end of winter than your average Californian or Angelino.

California's outbreak predates NY by some time, yet it's not hitting as hard and I don't think it's all explained by population density.
 
I did know that - I was being facetious while tipping my hat to my own theory that vitamin D plays a big part in better outcomes.

I'd say a hell of a lot more New Yorkers are vitamin D deficient at the end of winter than your average Californian or Angelino.

California's outbreak predates NY by some time, yet it's not hitting as hard and I don't think it's all explained by population density.

I completely agree, I think vitamin D plays a huge role.
 
Surely you jest? When Trump fired Rear Adm. Timothy Ziemer from the National Security Council and completely reorganized under John Bolton it meant no senior administration official is now focused solely on global health security. This completely gutted our pandemic and bioterrorism attack response capability. This left us completely unprepared and defenseless against coronavirus!

There is absolutely no excuse for this. You can pretend that it was just inexperience, but when you fire the experienced people and surround yourself with yes men who have no experience, then it is not a valid excuse! It is in fact inexcusable incompetence that will likely cost us many lives worldwide! This is NOT politics. This is simply idiocy. Not ideology! It is rational objective critique of actions and inaction made by an incompetent clown. Not because of the ridiculous troll things the twit tweets about. We all know that is just to get publicity. I am instead referring to real life actions affecting national security and the health and lives many Americans.

There is a time when we need to admit the buck really does stop there, and stop with the excuses. There is no excuse.:mad:
The broad outlines of how to drive a virus like SARS-COV-2 into (effective) extinction have been known for quite a while. And the global experience with SARS validated all the key points and then some.

Nothing new*: test, trace, isolate. Communicate openly, honestly, and transparently. Cooperate.

For COVID-19 there are several "proofs", which include what happens when you fail to actually implement any of the key aspects; for example Taiwan, South Korea, Singapore, Macau, Hong Kong, Australia (Ruby Princess anyone?).

Bodies like the WHO play an important role, but it's governments (or administrations, if you prefer) which must lead most of the heavy lifting. And the heavy lifting involves a lot of doing things that are consistent with very clear results from the sciences of epidemiology and virology.

At the global level, I think there are only three entities with the resources to lead implementation: the US, China, and the European Union (EU). Unfortunately, the structure of the EU makes it almost impossible for it to play any significant leadership role; indeed, its "freedom of movement" core value seems tailor-made for the spread of things like COVID-19. Likewise, the default "unless we say otherwise, everything is a state secret" core value of the PRC hobbles its ability to lead.

Maybe, when the economic impact of failing to act according to well-understood principles has sunk in, serious international efforts will be made to ensure there will never again be a global pandemic like COVID-19.

*As January has become April, many articles in the mainstream press have made it abundantly clear that not only were the key tools and techniques well-understood, in a great many governments, well before late 2019, but that war-gaming, scenario planning, and even some quite detailed preparation had been done. In at least one major country, much of this came to naught when the pandemic struck.
 
Boris Johnson is now in intensive care.

BBC: Boris Johnson moved to intensive care

I suspect he has started regretting shaking hands with infected people.


Crap, I hope he pulls through. I don't like the guy's politics and think he's a total nincompoop, but I certainly don't wish death on the poor bugger.

This is the scary thing with covid-19 that doctors and nurses have been talking about for the past week or two. Patients are fine one minute and then can suddenly take a turn for the worst within hours, literally. There's just no predicting this damn thing.
 
Excellent statistical piece here on NYC having reached the peak: https://www.nber.org/papers/w26917

It links to a lengthy .pdf, of which, the tl;dr version is that what NYC belatedly did in shutting down is causing the rates to flatten, and hopefully with a next trend of reduction.

Bad news for other areas in the report, unfortunately.

New cases in Michigan have been essentially flat for three days, at around 1500 per day, after a 1900 before that.

Not fantastic, but not exponential growth, so perhaps some cause for cautious optimism.
 
Excellent statistical piece here on NYC having reached the peak: https://www.nber.org/papers/w26917

It links to a lengthy .pdf, of which, the tl;dr version is that what NYC belatedly did in shutting down is causing the rates to flatten, and hopefully with a next trend of reduction.

Bad news for other areas in the report, unfortunately.
YMMV.

My take-away: data not robust enough to permit anything other than hints, and an "all, or some, of the above" alternative hypotheses hypothesis is equally consistent with the (wonky) data.
 
Anyone know the statistics for recovery from intensive care for a 55 year old overweight male?

I would give him slightly more than a 50% chance of survival. If they put him on a ventilator then he only gets about 30% chance. Be interesting to see a by-election in the UK.

I am not an expert. I only know what I read. Which is a lot.
 
All causes 2.8M deaths per year, last couple years. 2020, I say 2.9M. Most victims ov covid would not have made it through the year any how. Almost no deaths in the "healthy enough to punch a time clock " now.

NOW can I go to Home Depot ?


You can't go to Home Depot where you are?

We're on 'stay at home', 'essential businesses only', etc.. But Home Depot and other hardware stores here are 'essential businesses', like grocery stores. Although you might have to wait to get in until other customers have left, to keep the social separation thing maintained inside the store.
 
Expert enough in what? Managing a foundation? I'm talking about epidemiology.

I'm not saying he knows nothing about it, but that there are actual experts out there that I'd trust more to know about this thing.



What the hell does that have to do with whether he's an expert?


It answered the question you asked.


To expand on that, I'm confident that Gates is consulting the best experts he can find (who are going to be pretty darn good), and as many of them as he wants.

And unlike some (whose names we won't mention), he will also probably pay attention to what those experts say and act accordingly.
 
TA noted that Gates (implied: through his foundation and with the expertise of medical and construction experts) is building facilities to create vaccines.

See, THAT is a strawman. You're cherry picking a single part of TA's post and assuming, for some reason, that this is solely what I was responding to. Why?
 
See, THAT is a strawman. You're cherry picking a single part of TA's post and assuming, for some reason, that this is solely what I was responding to. Why?

Ok. I can accept that I was mistaken. You can calm down and tell me which part of TA's post you were responding to. Here it is to make it easy for you:


Something I've been meaning to post - Bill Gates.

This bloke is a living legend. He's seen that the big problem for vaccines will be getting them produced when we find one, so he's going ahead and building facilities to produce seven potential vaccines so he can throw away the ones not needed and provide the world with the right one immediately. Legend.

https://www.businessinsider.com.au/b...20-4?r=US&IR=T

and here is your response:

He's an IT guy. Why should his opinion on a pandemic and how we respond to it be worth more than yours or mine?
 
I would give him slightly more than a 50% chance of survival. If they put him on a ventilator then he only gets about 30% chance. Be interesting to see a by-election in the UK.

I am not an expert. I only know what I read. Which is a lot.

The latest news says he was moved to intensive care in case his condition deteriorated, not because he actually required intensive care. It may be an instance of someone important getting preferential treatment.
 
The latest news says he was moved to intensive care in case his condition deteriorated, not because he actually required intensive care. It may be an instance of someone important getting preferential treatment.

Well
Prime Minister Boris Johnson has been moved to intensive care in hospital after his coronavirus symptoms "worsened", Downing Street has said.

Over the course of [Monday] afternoon, the condition of the prime minister has worsened and, on the advice of his medical team, he has been moved to the intensive care unit at the hospital

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52192604
 
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