Cont: 2019-nCoV / Corona virus Pt 3

[Dr.Sid]

Very good article explaining trouble in counting case fatality rate:

https://www.bbc.com/future/article/...2kDZqlrCfdkue0PUyyVE_xCJa2E7kZ2ZtERfMwx3kRIXM

Basically you can't compare the countries, methods differ too much. True image will be seen when a) all is over b) we have random antibody tests c) we could ant sort all deaths in same manner d) we know overall death rate over the whole year.

 

[pipelineaudio]

man someone has been seriously busy regarding masks! https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/03/23/face-masks-much-more-than-you-wanted-to-know/

"FACE MASKS: MUCH MORE THAN YOU WANTED TO KNOW"

 

[TellyKNeasuss]

There may have been a time - late January, up to mid-February? - when the world could have driven SARS-COV-2 to extinction (or effectively so). Led by the US. Now somewhere between 240k and 1.9 million of those living in the USA will die avoidable deaths. Ditto tens of millions elsewhere in the world.

There may have been a time in December when the Chinese could have driven SARS-COV-2 to extinction.

 

[alfaniner]

SCORE!!! I found an N95 mask in my garage! Never mind that it must be at least 10 years old. I wonder if I should put it on eBay...

 

[Athyrio]

Yes, it did. What is your point? You assume it will take another 12 days to go to 85,000? That's not how this works, it hasn't happened that way anywhere else, and in a few weeks all of you will see that. I look forward to it. It's amusing to see so many on a skeptical message board prognosticate and soothsay visions of extreme plague that won't come to pass.

The comparison in death rates of flu and Covid 19 are no longer valid. Have you ever seen such restrictions as isolation, quarantine, distancing, and recommendations to wear gloves, masks, or the installation of checkpoints at state lines and airports applied to combat seasonal flu in your lifetime?

Meanwhile, ISF member crescent's spreadsheet (page 24, post 939 this thread). continues to closely follow the actual "reported" death tally.

crescent ---------------------------- April 5 - 9388
Washington Post ---------------April 5 - 9619. (as of 7:00 pm EST)

Where do you think the count might be if this was just another flu bug problem?

 

[Doghouse Reilly]

Interesting how pneumonia deaths have magically plummeted now that everything is Covid-19. Apparently Covid-19 reduces the number of pneumonia cases. Who would've guessed?

https://mobile.twitter.com/DewsNewz/status/1246592458642898944

 

[Doghouse Reilly]

The comparison in death rates of flu and Covid 19 are no longer valid. Have you ever seen such restrictions as isolation, quarantine, distancing, and recommendations to wear gloves, masks, or the installation of checkpoints at state lines and airports applied to combat seasonal flu in your lifetime?

Meanwhile, ISF member crescent's spreadsheet (page 24, post 939 this thread). continues to closely follow the actual "reported" death tally.

crescent ---------------------------- April 5 - 9388
Washington Post ---------------April 5 - 9619. (as of 7:00 pm EST)

Where do you think the count might be if this was just another flu bug problem?

I think it would be exactly where it is. I think the social distancing measures have done little to nothing, which is why I've said all along that this would be like a normal flu year and that everyone would do what you're doing by claiming that the lack of fulfillment of their predictions is because of the heroic efforts.

That is why I made a bet with Roboramma that Covid19 deaths will not exceed 85k in the US this year, as that seems to be sufficient for most to prove me right even in light of all the lockdowns/distancing.

 

[The Atheist]

Interesting how pneumonia deaths have magically plummeted now that everything is Covid-19. Apparently Covid-19 reduces the number of pneumonia cases. Who would've guessed?

That straw you're clutching at looks like being quite wet to start with is - another completely absurd post.

Wow, they've plummeted by all of 2000 per month, while USA has had a mere 5000 deaths from Covid-19 this month already, in just 5 days.

Even if cases don't increase, USA will lose 31,000 people to Covid this month.

2000 is a lot smaller than 31,000 and I'd be betting it's more than that.

Please do come back and review your posts at the end of April and let us know how you feel about them then.

 

[The Atheist]

https://mobile.twitter.com/DewsNewz/status/1246592458642898944

I decided to check your source, and Alex Jones is in danger of having the rug pulled from under him.

This is another headline from the guy whose Twitter you quoted:

Breaking! No One Will Be Allowed To Leave Their Homes Or Work Until They Have Been Injected By COVID-19 Experimental Vaccine

*backs away carefully...*

 

[Athyrio]

I think it would be exactly where it is.
That is why I made a bet with Roboramma that Covid19 deaths will not exceed 85k in the US this year, as that seems to be sufficient for most to prove me right even in light of all the lockdowns/distancing.

Exactly where it is? I've followed crescent's chart daily. Does that mean you might agree that the 85,000 mark will be reached by April 17-18 rather than by the end of the year?

I don't think you do.

 

[Trebuchet]

85k in a year? What happened to 4000 a month? Because we've had around 4000 in the past three days.

 

[sir drinks-a-lot]

Here is crescent's post for reference, and to prove I at least now understand exponents.

I do not think the numbers will be this high, but we'll know soon.

Just for the sake of conversation, here's a projection starting with today's fatality numbers and assuming a 20% daily increase run out over three weeks:

3773 31-Mar
4527 1-Apr
5433 2-Apr
6519 3-Apr
7823 4-Apr
9388 5-Apr
11,266 6-Apr
13,519 7-Apr
16,223 8-Apr
19,467 9-Apr
23,361 10-Apr
28,033 11-Apr
33,640 12-Apr
40,368 13-Apr
48,442 14-Apr
58,130 15-Apr
69,756 16-Apr
83,708 17-Apr
100,449 18-Apr
120,539 19-Apr
144,647 20-Apr
173,577 21-Apr

Hopefully those numbers are far too pessimistic. So far, assuming a 20% daily growth rate for fatalities has been too optimistic.

 

[Doghouse Reilly]

I decided to check your source, and Alex Jones is in danger of having the rug pulled from under him.

This is another headline from the guy whose Twitter you quoted:



*backs away carefully...*

No, my source is the CDC, I don't care about that guy or his interpretation of the numbers, I just couldn't find a direct link to the chart demonstrating that pneumonia cases have starkly fallen, a fact you seem to be simply handwaving away.

 

[Doghouse Reilly]

85k in a year? What happened to 4000 a month? Because we've had around 4000 in the past three days.

I don't understand what you mean. The bet is that 85k COMBINED flu and coronavirus deaths will not take place inthe US this year.

 

[Doghouse Reilly]

Exactly where it is? I've followed crescent's chart daily. Does that mean you might agree that the 85,000 mark will be reached by April 17-18 rather than by the end of the year?

I don't think you do.

Obviously I don't. The past doesn't predict the future

 

[Doghouse Reilly]

Please do come back and review your posts at the end of April and let us know how you feel about them then.

I've been here since 2003, pretty sure I'll still be here at the end of April.

 

[angrysoba]

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0843-2

Nature article (Apr. 3, 2020) on the presence of various virus types distinguishing between droplets ( > 5um) and aerosols ( < 5um) in breathing collected over 30 minutes. Also examined was a set where surgical masks were worn.

Interesting results.

There we go.

 

[angrysoba]

Here is crescent's post for reference, and to prove I at least now understand exponents.

I do not think the numbers will be this high, but we'll know soon.

They look pretty on-the-nose right now.

Yes, the numbers shouldn't go as high as crescent's forecast if the US implements mitigation strategies.

 

[sir drinks-a-lot]

I've been here since 2003, pretty sure I'll still be here at the end of April.

...unless you're included in crescent's chart.

 

[Doghouse Reilly]

...unless you're included in crescent's chart.

I already had coronavirus. Confirmed by a test purchased through my son's pediatrician here in Los Angeles. So, unlikely. It was like a bad flu, excruciating headache, fever and dry cough but no breathing difficulties. I hadn't mentioned it because it's not really relevant to the discussion, as obviously people experience the infection in different ways.