Cont: 2019-nCoV / Corona virus Pt 3

[a_unique_person]

Thanks..

Of all the hundreds of pages of statistics, scenarios and wild ass guesses, this is the most informative response I have seen in this thread.

It's going to be hard to reciprocate..

That's all I was going to do. While you are at it, look at the Ruby Princess.


https://7news.com.au/travel/coronav...ealed-in-ruby-princess-investigation-c-956271


They make up about a third of the total deaths in Australia, being about 10 in 30.

 

[EHocking]

It is quite simple: about 100k tested, about 5k found. Those are the numbers in my country. If that had been completely random testing it would have been good reason to hold that it represents well the overall percentage right now. Don't you agree? Note that I'm not saying that this will be the final percentage after the epidemic has run it's course. That could well get to where "herd immunity" kicks in at 60-70%.

(The percentage of positives was higher during the spike we had a week or so back. The last few days it has been pretty consistent. 3000-4000 people are tested on average every day. The 5%-rate has been pretty steady.)

ETA: I get the numbers and statistics for my country from this site: https://www.fhi.no/sv/smittsomme-sykdommer/corona/

One country does not a pandemic make.

Norway may have tested twice as many people per 1million than Australia - but that is not the be all and end all. it is certainly not a guarantee of a better chance of not contracting COVID-19.

You have 5 times as many cases / MM than Australia and 10 times as many deaths / MM.

In short a greater % of your population is contracting it and dying from it

 

[William Parcher]

India...

It will be interesting (yes, also tragic) to see the spread play out in a country already under lock down before reaching a frightening pace.

Granting that 8,000 other variables weigh in, if a poor country with good discipline flattens...

There are some problems with India's lockdown. I've seen videos of police violently attacking civilians while enforcing lockdown. I have also seen videos of civilians violently attacking police because they are refusing to be locked down.

 

[novaphile]

Can you prove this? My wife and I, and others in our family, had contact with people who had the virus. The government knew this and asked us to self-isolate, which we did. None were tested.

As I've said before, I can only speak for what happens in my state.

 

[novaphile]

South Korea certainly looks like they have put it down. Probably China as well. Unless they get another breakout started.

It is looking like Italy, Spain, and Australia (maybe) have moved past peak. France and Iran (and maybe UK) look like they might be at peak.

U.S. probably still has 2-3 weeks to go. It's a big country, so it will have a longer "peak" as the peaks hit different parts of the country. I hope California can continue to keep their numbers down.

Our 'peak' is interesting.

Eventually we'll stop bringing in huge numbers of cases at a time.

I was quite annoyed about the extra 85 positives from the Ruby Princess. (Note: not the same ship as the Diamond Princess)

 

[novaphile]

The percentage of positive tests is going down in Australia.

(Now sitting at approximately 1.9 %)

Of the 5,635 confirmed cases in Australia, 34 have died from COVID-19. More than 291,000 tests have been conducted across Australia.

https://www.health.gov.au/news/heal...s-covid-19-current-situation-and-case-numbers

Note: these figures are valid up to 6am this morning (Sunday)

 

[Athyrio]

Crescent's spreadsheet for USA coronavirus deaths by April 4 shows 7823. Actual number at 8:01pm shows 8407 so far. I say for the plus or minus that's pretty much spot on. Worse than expected though.

 

[Doghouse Reilly]

Well, if he wants to give a date and a number, I'd be happy to consider that too. He asked for my proposal (then ignored it), but I'm flexible.

Didn't ignore it, ready to bet.

 

[marting]

Sort of. We know influenza virus is expelled when people talk and breathe. But I don't think that route of transmission has been proven. It is a route that is possibly in theory, but we don't know if it happens in practices. And if it does, we don;t know the rate. It is probably small.

Transmission routes for SARS-CoV-2 are probably the same or similar to influenza. Maybe.

We don't know that breathing and talking can transmit the virus, but it is certainly possibly.

I posted in #1351 the following quote for an opinion published by the National Academy of Sciences basically getting on board with the idea that aerosols may well be an infection route:

"While the current SARS-CoV-2 specific research is limited, the results of available
studies are consistent with aerosolization of virus from normal breathing."

 

[The Atheist]

Its always spring here and ours has been slow....still so perplexed, though its tripled since march 26th now to 350-ish

Watch it turns out to be that eating Spam slows the transmission. I was trying to think of a New Zealand/Hawaii/Japan connection and we definitely love our Spam musubis, whatever they call them in each area

Only eaten by Pasifika people here. You'd be hard pressed to find a Palagi (white fella) eating that crap. I'm always deeply suspicious of the round bits in it.

That's all I was going to do. While you are at it, look at the Ruby Princess.

I see a criminal investigation has been commenced into whether the law was broken allowing them to disembark: https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/he...ustralian-police-to-investigate-ruby-princess

I'd go with some criminal negligence in there somewhere. They knew there were cases on board. Bastards caused two of our clusters.

 

[Samson]

Only eaten by Pasifika people here. You'd be hard pressed to find a Palagi (white fella) eating that crap. I'm always deeply suspicious of the round bits in it.



I see a criminal investigation has been commenced into whether the law was broken allowing them to disembark: https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/he...ustralian-police-to-investigate-ruby-princess

I'd go with some criminal negligence in there somewhere. They knew there were cases on board. Bastards caused two of or clusters.

Bluff wedding, St Patricks day, cruise ships, one school all in last 2 weeks
All for the sake of procrastination close to sinking the country.

 

[Minoosh]

It is looking like Italy, Spain, and Australia (maybe) have moved past peak. France and Iran (and maybe UK) look like they might be at peak.

Iranian New Year was 2 weeks ago so it will be interesting to see if there's a spike. Iranians love to congregate anyway and I heard that Iran was being very wishy-washy at enforcing or even encouraging social distancing etc.

If it turns out the mullahs set the country up for a wider epidemic, there will be a backlash. But mass communication is not locked down the way it would be in N. Korea or even China. There are official agencies, but also a robust Internet culture. So Iranians will know how their country's response rates.

 

[The Atheist]

Bluff wedding, St Patricks day, cruise ships, one school all in last 2 weeks
All for the sake of procrastination close to sinking the country.

I hate to tempt fate, but I think "close" is right and that she did it in time, amazingly. Testing close to 1% now and cases are flat.

Let's look again in a week, but the signs are certainly very promising.

 

[The Atheist]

Then again, the next page I look at is news from Chch, where at least two rest homes have cases.

They didn't get them from mingling with tourists, so how did the infections get in?

And more importantly, why are none of the cases severe?

Lovely story about a piece of **** deliberately coughing on people in Christchurch as well.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/he...ed-cases-of-covid19-at-christchurch-rest-home

 

[The Atheist]

1.5 million doses of Remdesivir are being released by Gilead, enough to treat 140,000 seriously ill patients.

https://www.gilead.com/stories/articles/an-update-on-covid-19-from-our-chairman-and-ceo

 

[Samson]

I hate to tempt fate, but I think "close" is right and that she did it in time, amazingly. Testing close to 1% now and cases are flat.

Let's look again in a week, but the signs are certainly very promising.

Epic epithet maybe...

 

[Samson]

1.5 million doses of Remdesivir are being released by Gilead, enough to treat 140,000 seriously ill patients.

https://www.gilead.com/stories/articles/an-update-on-covid-19-from-our-chairman-and-ceo

Share price static to rising, but I passed on the tip in thine name.

 

[Samson]

Then again, the next page I look at is news from Chch, where at least two rest homes have cases.

They didn't get them from mingling with tourists, so how did the infections get in?

And more importantly, why are none of the cases severe?

Lovely story about a piece of **** deliberately coughing on people in Christchurch as well.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/he...ed-cases-of-covid19-at-christchurch-rest-home

Not sure if he foresaw the stress of being charged with a crime.
I guess he figured no awkward questions needed for travel anymore.

 

[Belz...]

I know you aren't sold on this, but this virus is a whole heck of a lot worse than the flu. It kills a much higher percentage of the people infected with it.

It also seems a lot more virulent.

Such as where? It's not summer anywhere in the world.

It's pretty much summer all year round for a good portion of people around the equator. Your technical correctness isn't really very informative.

Something I've been meaning to post - Bill Gates.

This bloke is a living legend. He's seen that the big problem for vaccines will be getting them produced when we find one, so he's going ahead and building facilities to produce seven potential vaccines so he can throw away the ones not needed and provide the world with the right one immediately.

Legend.

He's an IT guy. Why should his opinion on a pandemic and how we respond to it be worth more than yours or mine?

 

[Capsid]

It also seems a lot more virulent.



It's pretty much summer all year round for a good portion of people around the equator. Your technical correctness isn't really very informative.



He's an IT guy. Why should his opinion on a pandemic and how we respond to it be worth more than yours or mine?

The BMGF has been going since 2000. Bill Gates has focussed his efforts on that, he left Microsoft in 2008. And having heard him talk at conferences, I'd consider him expert enough.