Cont: 2019-nCoV / Corona virus Pt 3

[marting]

With regards to the statistical data coming from China, they are almost certainly under reporting both fatalities and individuals who test positive.

It's already well known that they do not classify individuals who test positive, but who do not at the time of the testing display any significant symptoms, as actually being infected in the numbers they report to the WHO. They only classify them as being infected if they are subsequently hospitalized.

Thanks for pointing out that China hadn't been reporting asymptomatic but positive PCR tests to WHO. That effectively lowers the Chinese IFR by a third.

Apparently that only just changed as of yesterday.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...-asymptomatic-coronavirus-cases-idUSKBN21J450

However, that only applies to asymptomatic cases. But what happens if they become symptomatic but weren't hospitalized? They report symptomatic cases with positive tests and the large majority of those aren't hospitalized.

 

[Doghouse Reilly]

But the numbers are down...Doghous Reilly just told us that.

Where did I say "The numbers are down"?

 

[William Parcher]

One million "N95" masks are coming from China to America on a New England Patriots jet.

 

[lomiller]

The 2019-2020 flu season is already virtually over.

That depends on where you live. In Australia the flu season should start in another month or so.

 

[William Parcher]

Daily Mail: Russia sending 60 tons of ventilators, masks, respirators and protective gear to America.

 

[JeanTate]

Not quite...I think that Covid19 is a respiratory illness of the same type that is seen during a normal flu season. I know it's not an influenza virus but it's also my understanding that 7-15% of "flu" illnesses are actually already due to coronaviruses. In any case, I think that whatever the combined total deaths are between "flu" and coronavirus for the 2019-2020 season, they will not exceed that of a particularly bad flu year (2017-2018 was ~80k, for example). I think that when the US death toll for combined flu/Covid19 is calculated for the 2019-2020 season it will be <100k.

Then why do you keep introducing material that is not directly relevant to the US?

Or, why do you not present your predictions (or claims or whatever) re covid-19 for China, or Italy, or India, or ...?

 

[Skeptical Greg]

New Orleans' coronavirus death rate 7 times New York's?

I don't know if that number is correct.. I will defer to the many statisticians in this thread.

However, the story makes an interesting point about coexisting health conditions..

The coronavirus has been a far deadlier threat in New Orleans than the rest of the United States, with a per-capita death rate much higher than in New York City. Doctors, public health officials and available data say the Big Easy's high levels of obesity and related ailments may be part of the problem.

I think there is a lot of reluctance to use the " O ' word in the media..


When all is said and done, I believe the ultimate death count will have a lot of correlation to these other epidemic health issues. Obesity, heart disease and T2D.

 

[JeanTate]

Oh really?



https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...ptom-free-virus-cases-means-epidemic-not-over

.

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/soc...virus-cases-may-be-silent-carriers-classified

What a bunch of nonsense! Hmph!

You seem to be mixing up two different things:

What happened in Wuhan, back in January, February (and maybe some of March).

What is happening now, throughout China.

Copying the content of my #1263:

Up until 15 March, the WHO's daily situation report had a "Table 1. Confirmed and suspected cases of COVID-19 acute respiratory disease reported by provinces, regions and cities in China".

The last column is "Cumulative Deaths". Ranked these are (for "Data as of 15 March 2020")*:
Hubei 3085
Henan 22
Heilongjiang 13
Guangdong, Beijing 8 (each)
Shandong 7
Anhui, Chongqing, Hebei, Hainan 6 (each)
Hunan, Hong Kong 4 (each)
Sichuan, Shanghai, Tianjin, Xinjiang 3 (each)
Guangxi, Shaanxi, Yunnan, Guizhou, Gansu 2 (each)
Zhejiang, Jiangxi, Fujian, Liaoning, Jilin, Inner Mongolia, Taiwan 1 (each)
Jiangsu, Shanxi, Ningxia, Qinghai, Macau, Tibet 0 (each)

There certainly are good reasons for doubting the accuracy of the number for Hubei; the SCMP, for example, has articles/anecdotes about people dying and being cremated without any testing being done, especially in the early days.

But the fact that the numbers for three independent places (Hong Kong, Taiwan, Macau) are consistent with those for most provinces (other than Hubei) suggests that it's only Hubei where the numbers might be wonky.

More: Henan borders on Hubei, leaving Heilongjiang as the only apparent possible outlier.

*I hope I didn't make any transcription errors

 

[The Atheist]

Lot's of health care workers have worked with none or inadequate PPE, especially in nursing homes and hospitals that underestimated if cases were in their areas.

Doesn't explain all the health care worker exposures.

Sorry, I was posting while extreme;y angry about the lack of protection being given to healthcare workers rather than suggesting it was the only way they could get it - Planigale made the same point, but I've been asleep for three pages.

Even if countries were idiotic enough to have poor pandemic planning in place, every country outside China had plenty of time to have adequate systems and PPE in place and I'm ******* disgusted they didn't.

The death and infection rates in China, Japan and South Korea are all very low. Is this all because of actions taken or can there be an hereditary factor.

Never mind them, look at Australia, New Zealand and South Africa.

Italy, France, Spain, UK & Holland all have Case : Fatality rates at or approaching 10% of confirmed cases. The three above are all at 0.5% or under.

One million "N95" masks are coming from China to America on a New England Patriots jet.

That's beautiful. Beautiful Chinese masks.

USA! USA! USA!

(double points on using an NFL plane)

 

[Myriad]

One million "N95" masks are coming from China to America on a New England Patriots jet.

By deflating the masks slightly, they were able to fit more of them on the plane.

 

[Pixel42]

That depends on where you live. In Australia the flu season should start in another month or so.

True, but we were talking specifically about the US.

 

[JeanTate]

https://novuscomms.com/2020/03/31/a...orphan-orph-laboratory-professor-john-oxford/

Note that he is, however, still in favor of social distancing measures.

Not sure what geographical scope the "8000" has, but I guess we won't have to wait long.

Also, unlike you?, he seems to acknowledge that some groups of people will fare worse - if they get covid-19 - than merely the flu.

In all your reading of media articles, have you come across any which discuss the extent to which medical health care folks (e.g. doctors, nurses) have been hit (far) harder with covid-19 that with the flu?

My impression is that far more are being killed ...

 

[JeanTate]

It's not important. I'm just saying the combined total will be no worse than a flu season.

You seem to change your story/claim/whatever rather often.

When should we call this "moving the goalposts"?

 

[JesseCuster]

In all your reading of media articles, have you come across any which discuss the extent to which medical health care folks (e.g. doctors, nurses) have been hit (far) harder with covid-19 that with the flu?

My impression is that far more are being killed ...

More than 60 doctors in Italy have so far died from COVID-19 so far.

 

[JeanTate]

That depends on where you live. In Australia the flu season should start in another month or so.

Yeah.

This is - yet another - example of the inconsistencies and amgibuities of so many of DR's posts.

However, if you read closely, I think it's more likely than not that he means the US (and that likely does not include, say, American Samoa).

Out of curiousity, does any reader know what "the flu season" is for places near the equator (Singapore, say)? Or places where the seasons are "wet" and "dry"?

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

...

ETA: Germany is also low. People in Germany followed suggestions to maintain social distancing. They didn't engage in the American style "I do what I want" thing, or go to crowded places solely because they were told not to, they didn't reject science just because their political rivals supported it.....

When we look back we may find the Catholic churches were a huge source of viral spread in Spain and Italy.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

It's not important. I'm just saying the combined total will be no worse than a flu season.

Either way, I don't think the numbers will be much different calculated by year or calculated by flu season. Let's go with flu season so that we don't have to wait until the end of 2020. Flu season can extend into May.

The evidence proves you demonstrably wrong.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

One million "N95" masks are coming from China to America on a New England Patriots jet.

That's good since: Coronavirus Cases Have Surged, But The US Is Refusing To Take The World’s Most Available Masks

Maybe they can slip them through customs or at a minimum, draw attention to the incompetrump position.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

New Orleans' coronavirus death rate 7 times New York's?

I don't know if that number is correct.. I will defer to the many statisticians in this thread.

However, the story makes an interesting point about coexisting health conditions..

I think there is a lot of reluctance to use the " O ' word in the media..

When all is said and done, I believe the ultimate death count will have a lot of correlation to these other epidemic health issues. Obesity, heart disease and T2D.

Or it could be the deaths are scrunched up compared to states where the deaths are spread out. They foolishly went ahead with Mardi Gras.

 

[Planigale]

More than 60 doctors in Italy have so far died from COVID-19 so far.

So there are 14,000 deaths in Italy. Italy has 4 doctors / thousand people so 'expected' deaths 56. I do not know the gender split of doctors in Italy, but one has to make an estimate of what would be the roughly expected number of deaths of doctors. Possibly doctors aren't dying at any higher rate than anyone else?