Cont: 2019-nCoV / Corona virus Pt 3

[JeanTate]

So some evangelical Christian charity builds a makeshift hospital IN ANTICIPATION of it being needed. Get back to me when it's needed. This is more of the same "sandbags being proof of an impending flood".

How often does this happen in NY? Well, how often do we have mass hysteria and panic like this? Pretty much never. It's evidence of nothing except belief.

At this point I'm pretty much done arguing about it. The numbers will prove me right. We're already seeing that the supposed apocalyptic exponential growth is not happening, so it will all be clear soon enough.

I'm not sure about "apocalyptic", but "exponential growth" is certainly happening. As has been noted in many, many posts in this thread and its ancestors.

So, what - to you - could constitute "evidence"?

And what "numbers" are you referring to ("The numbers will prove me right")?

 

[lomiller]

When you look for a truth, you will find it.

That would mean that the rate of infection is at least 100 times higher than currently known, which doesn't seem possible.

That's putting it mildly. A 0.01 mortality rate implies that at least 140 million people have been infected in Italy. The population of Italy is only 60 million.

 

[blutoski]

Do you know if there is a list of what these "underlying health conditions" were?

Just a list would be nice, but a distribution would be nicer!

It's also worth seeing a list of what is considered an underlying health condition in these stats in order to project its relevance.

Just for example, I think the WHO considers obesity to be a risk elevating medical condition. Type II Diabetes. Asthma.

In other words, 75% of Americans.

 

[JesseCuster]

Huh?

99/100 is just as much "combined" as 50/50 or 1/100 is.

Can you clarify please?

I think that DR thinks that a lot of the COVID-19 deaths are actually flu deaths (I'm not 100% if that's what he thinks), therefore when the dust is settled, and the death toll is 100,000, and they turn out to actually be split evenly between flu deaths and COVID-19 deaths, it will vindicate him because COVID-19 didn't turn out to be any worse (or much worse) than the flu this year.

If that's what he thinks, then I don't know why he thinks that so many COVID-19 deaths are actually misattributed flu deaths. Aren't the people dying of COVID-19 giving positive tests for COVID-19, so I don't know how that would work.

I'm going to make a wild prediction that far more people will die of COVID-19 this year than of influenza.

Apologies if I've misinterpreted him.

 

[Meridian]

That's putting it mildly. A 0.01 mortality rate implies that at least 140 million people have been infected in Italy. The population of Italy is only 60 million.

It's worse than that: Lombardy has a population of 10 million, and 7500 deaths (so far; going up by c. 300-400 a day at the moment). (From wikipedia.) Although, to be fair, there are two different death rates: with and without good care available.

 

[sphenisc]

Worldometer about to hit the first million cases mark.

 

[Doghouse Reilly]

Do you perform this service for Rush Limbaugh?

No, why? I'm not a conservative, if that's what you're implying. As for the rest of the posts addressed to me, yes, I will get to them, just very busy the last 36 hours.

 

[marting]

With regards to the statistical data coming from China, they are almost certainly under reporting both fatalities and individuals who test positive.

It's already well known that they do not classify individuals who test positive, but who do not at the time of the testing display any significant symptoms, as actually being infected in the numbers they report to the WHO. They only classify them as being infected if they are subsequently hospitalized.

Nonsense. Where on Earth did you get that "well known" notion? It's quite the opposite.

In the early days China was overwhelmed and didn't even test all the hospitalized people. But only positive tests were reported.

This is similar to a county in California that was recommending, until just weeks ago, that tests not be done on suspected, but previously untested, COVID-19 cases unless it would affect their course of treatment. That's what you do when you have more patients lined up in the hallway than tests.

On Feb. 12, China included all the people that had the symptoms of COVID-19 along with CAT scans. This backlog caused a large (12k) bump on that day in new cases reported to WHO. They subsequently reverted to reporting only PCR test confirmed cases as they had done previously when their testing capability was ramped up and have been testing contacts as well. Their daily reports have been PCR test based for a considerable time now.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

Healthcare workers are a bit different to everyone else, working very closely with highly infectious patients.

Sorry, you can't have it both ways, fitting the evidence to your conclusion.

I have to say, the number of health professionals being infected bothers the hell out of me - if they had the right PPE and conditions, they wouldn't get it.

Or, N95s are not blocking enough of this virus.

Like this bloke: https://www.ilfordrecorder.co.uk/news/health/nurse-dies-of-suspected-covid-19-1-6587770

Lot's of health care workers have worked with no or inadequate PPE, especially in nursing homes and hospitals that underestimated if cases were in their areas.

Doesn't explain all the health care worker exposures.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

I note that the Chinese government is recommending a treatment which has not basis in science and, as a double whammy, involves animal cruelty

Yay humanity

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/wor...859d574e049e066f596657&pinned_post_type=share

China and India both have yet to test their traditional meds for effectiveness and give them up.

Edited to add: You can also say that about homeopathy in the UK noting there are some significant differences.

 

[Doghouse Reilly]

I think that DR thinks that a lot of the COVID-19 deaths are actually flu deaths (I'm not 100% if that's what he thinks), therefore when the dust is settled, and the death toll is 100,000, and they turn out to actually be split evenly between flu deaths and COVID-19 deaths, it will vindicate him because COVID-19 didn't turn out to be any worse (or much worse) than the flu this year.

If that's what he thinks, then I don't know why he thinks that so many COVID-19 deaths are actually misattributed flu deaths. Aren't the people dying of COVID-19 giving positive tests for COVID-19, so I don't know how that would work.

I'm going to make a wild prediction that far more people will die of COVID-19 this year than of influenza.

Apologies if I've misinterpreted him.

Not quite...I think that Covid19 is a respiratory illness of the same type that is seen during a normal flu season. I know it's not an influenza virus but it's also my understanding that 7-15% of "flu" illnesses are actually already due to coronaviruses. In any case, I think that whatever the combined total deaths are between "flu" and coronavirus for the 2019-2020 season, they will not exceed that of a particularly bad flu year (2017-2018 was ~80k, for example). I think that when the US death toll for combined flu/Covid19 is calculated for the 2019-2020 season it will be <100k.

 

[marting]

China and India both have yet to test their traditional meds for effectiveness and give them up.

A friend of my wife waves a crystal over fresh seafood to see whether it's ok to eat. OTOH, she's also an antivaxer. It's funny how this sort of crap seems to infect fringes of both the left and right. Hard to change entrenched cultural beliefs let alone fringe ones.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

....

I am a skeptic. I seek the truth. I follow the evidence where it leads. I am wary of arguments and especially a series of arguments that seem to be promoting a particular conclusion and presenting evidence only for that preconceived conclusion rather than considering the evidence and deriving the conclusion, whatever it may be, from the evidence.

You don't think the alarms raised by governments and health care workers on the front lines from all over the world bear any evidentiary weight?

Are we all delusional believing we are seeing something not seen before in our lifetimes?

Are there any ED MDs for example, sounding the alarm this is a faux pandemic?

The few GOP governors in this country that at first have denied the problem have changed their positions.

 

[Arcade22]

Nonsense. Where on Earth did you get that "well known" notion? It's quite the opposite.

Oh really?

China’s exclusion of people without symptoms from its official count of confirmed coronavirus cases is renewing concerns over whether its outbreak has truly come under control.

Local authorities in Wuhan -- the city where the virus first emerged -- defended their practice of not counting such cases late Monday night, after local magazine Caixin reported that the city was still finding asymptomatic cases daily. China reported four domestic cases of the virus on Monday, the first time in five days that it’s discovered infections which haven’t come from overseas.

...

The Wuhan Municipal Health Commission said in the Monday night statement that only a small number of asymptomatic people with the virus develop symptoms and most are “self-cured.” But the concern for health experts is that the people carrying the virus who never develop symptoms could be spreading the disease without anyone knowing.

The likely presence of undisclosed asymptomatic infections in China also threatens to undercut the government’s narrative that the epidemic has come under control after two months of harsh containment measures.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...ptom-free-virus-cases-means-epidemic-not-over

 

[Arcade22]

The number of “silent carriers” – people who are infected by the new coronavirus but show delayed or no symptoms – could be as high as one-third of those who test positive, according to classified Chinese government data seen by the South China Morning Post.

That could further complicate the strategies being used by countries to contain the virus, which has infected more than 300,000 people and killed more than 14,000 globally.

More than 43,000 people in China had tested positive for Covid-19 by the end of February but had no immediate symptoms, a condition typically known as asymptomatic, according to the data. They were placed in quarantine and monitored but were not included in the official tally of confirmed cases, which stood at about 80,000 at the time.
Scientists have been unable to agree on what role asymptomatic transmission plays in spreading the disease. A patient usually develops symptoms in five days, though the incubation period can be as long as three weeks in some rare cases.

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/soc...virus-cases-may-be-silent-carriers-classified

What a bunch of nonsense! Hmph!

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

There is something a bit odd with UK doctor deaths from covid, which might just be chance but...

Dr Alfa Saadu, 68y
Mr. Amged el-Hawrani, 55y ear, nose and throat consultant
Mr Adil el Tayar, 63y surgeon,
Dr Habib Zaidi, 76y, GP

that they are all older and male is not surprising but the chances of all four being ethnic minorities is a little odd.

Not if the proportion of ethnic minorities in physician positions is high. What is the make-up of the control you would compare this to?

 

[Pixel42]

Not quite...I think that Covid19 is a respiratory illness of the same type that is seen during a normal flu season. I know it's not an influenza virus but it's also my understanding that 7-15% of "flu" illnesses are actually already due to coronaviruses. In any case, I think that whatever the combined total deaths are between "flu" and coronavirus for the 2019-2020 season, they will not exceed that of a particularly bad flu year (2017-2018 was ~80k, for example). I think that when the US death toll for combined flu/Covid19 is calculated for the 2019-2020 season it will be <100k.

The 2019-2020 flu season is already virtually over. Don't you mean the total 2020 deaths?

 

[wasapi]

Worldometer about to hit the first million cases mark.

What an interesting link! Thanks!

 

[JesseCuster]

Not quite...I think that Covid19 is a respiratory illness of the same type that is seen during a normal flu season. I know it's not an influenza virus but it's also my understanding that 7-15% of "flu" illnesses are actually already due to coronaviruses.

I don't understand the relevance of that.

It's well known that before the novel SARS-CoV-2 virus that caused COVID-19 popped up recently, there were a handful of human coronaviruses that commonly cause respiratory illness.

So a minority of influenza cases are actually caused by these other coronaviruses and have been misdiagnosed as influenza. COVID-19 belongs to the same family of viruses as some previously known viruses that can sometimes be mistaken for influenza.

Ok.

How is this relevant to the discussion at hand? How does this help your case?

 

[eeyore1954]

The death and infection rates in China, Japan and South Korea are all very low. Is this all because of actions taken or can there be an hereditary factor.