Cont: 2019-nCoV / Corona virus Pt 3

[The Atheist]

This seems consistent with the 60 person, 3hr, choir practice where 75% became COVID-19 positive. Singing is even more intensive than loud speech and also involves much deeper breathing.

I'm even more convinced these cases were aerosols from a super-spreader.

The article doesn't even mention distance the particles can travel, but I'd be sceptical of them infecting someone six metres away, no matter how loud they were singing, and that's the distance they would need to have travelled. The smaller particles have too few viral particles to infect and the larger ones would find gravity a bit of a problem.

Again, I must point to concerts, where infected people didn't infect others, and people tend to sing along at concerts.

I'm not discounting it, but there's definitely not enough evidence yet.

Pity we'll never know, but you stick to singing and I'll bet on the oranges.

 

[William Parcher]

A lot more then 8000 Marines were on Guam in 1944..and a few thousand Japanese also....
Island did not flip over.

Show me a film of Guam not flipping over.

 

[Meadmaker]

Yes, thank you, you make very good points and I can see how it is faulty reasoning. That's why I'm on this board. I am a big believer in good evidence and good reasoning. The reason I'm skeptical of this pandemic is because so far I haven't found the evidence persuasive that one exists. I think we will see total combined deaths between flu and coronavirus in the US for the 2019-2020 season of 65,000-80,000, clearly a heavy flu/respiratory illness season, but not the disaster predicted. And then, as I said before, all the people who were wrong will still say I was the one who was wrong because all of the lockdowns are what caused the low number of deaths. I don't see a way out of this conundrum.

I see one way out. If there are 100,000 deaths, it seems pretty clear.

 

[William Parcher]

The article doesn't even mention distance the particles can travel

The MIT study that I posted upthread is all about exactly that.

 

[marting]

Good news from Washington, in an MSNBC interview Dow Constantine, Executive of King County, says they are not seeing the exponential growth that epidemiologists predict so far. Hopefully that persists. I do very dearly want to be proven correct in my pandemic denialism, not least because it means millions won't die, but admittedly also because it would just be nice to be right.

https://youtu.be/NQKu48vZPb4

There is exponential growth so long as R0 > 1. Constantine said that doubling time period had increased from 3-4 days to 10 days. which is, depending on mean infection delay, about like R0 decreasing from 2.5 to 1.5. Seems reasonable but I'm hoping for more reduction. So it's still on the left side of the peak. Hopefully, the social distancing measures (And Wash. is more aware of how important they are than lots of other places) will get R0 much less than 1. If it only goes to 1 you just get a constant daily increase. To have a peak it has to go below 1.

 

[William Parcher]

Pity we'll never know, but you stick to singing and I'll bet on the oranges.

It may have been both. But we don't know anything about the oranges other than that they were there. The oranges may have been entirely uncontaminated.

That is until the aerosol settled on them.

 

[marting]

The article doesn't even mention distance the particles can travel, but I'd be sceptical of them infecting someone six metres away, no matter how loud they were singing, and that's the distance they would need to have travelled. The smaller particles have too few viral particles to infect and the larger ones would find gravity a bit of a problem.

Aerosol particles ( < 10um) exceed the air speed extremely briefly and within a cm or so basically just go along with the air. They also don't settle but just float around suspended much like microscopic dust particles. On the positive side they decay in infectiousness by about half every hour which is much faster that fomites on most flat surfaces and those can contain far more virii. When you have a bunch of people singing for 3 hours your going to be breathing in a lot of air that was exhaled by virtually everyone in that room. And in that study people talking loudly but not shouting exhaled 50 times the rate of aerosol particles of someone just speaking normally. Singing involves much deeper breathing and is typically loud.

 

[Doghouse Reilly]

I see one way out. If there are 100,000 deaths, it seems pretty clear.

That's right, you did mention that. But is that 100k total (USA deaths) between flu and coronavirus, or 100k from just coronavirus? If it were, for example, 99k from just coronavirus, I would definitely consider that a very real and serious pandemic. If it were from flu/coronavirus combined I would say my suspicions were vindicated.

 

[William Parcher]

The smaller particles have too few viral particles to infect and the larger ones would find gravity a bit of a problem.

You don't know that and the researchers don't know that either though they say they are working on answers.

An individual aerosol particle may have too few virus particles to infect, but breathing in countless numbers of them might do the job. How many particles do you inhale when you are standing in an invisible aerosol cloud while breathing continuously?

The MIT study reveals that you are not going to be able to avoid that cloud which is moving in all sorts of directions including behind the emitter. Six feet away is a joke. That distance might be somewhat effective for droplets but not for aerosols. The Nebraska study found actual coronavirus particles in the air outside the nursing home room in the hallway.

Gravity has little effect on aerosols. We know that because you can smell garlic in the kitchen for hours after you are done cooking. Hell, you can smell an Italian restaurant out in the parking lot before you even walk in.

ETA: Composing my post while marting got in first. We are saying about the same thing.

 

[The Atheist]

Singing involves much deeper breathing and is typically loud.

That being the case, we should be seeing hundreds or thousands infected from megachurch services, yet they've only been in the low dozens for each church cluster in USA so far.

I can't say I spend much time in church, but I'm pretty sure they do a lot of singing.

 

[The Atheist]

You don't know that and the researchers don't know that either though they say they are working on answers.

Yes, it would be interesting to know, but I'm using norovirus as a bottom line, which is infectious as low as ten viral particles. Colds are about 100, so you'd expect Covid to be somewhere between those two.

Also, if there are lots of aerosol-borne virus particles about that are infecting people we'd be seeing much faster spread than we are.

 

[Blue Mountain]

A while back in these threads I offered the observation that naval vessels like aircraft carriers were just as much examples of giant floating Petri dishes as cruise ships.

Said observation was rebuffed with a certain amount of derision, because military ships were somehow a different case because of reasons which were not entirely convincing to me. But I dropped the subject.

Now the Captain of an aircraft carrier wants to disembark 4,000 people (80% of the crew) onto the island of Guam.

Guam is not particularly enthused by this prospect.

I think part of the response was how could a completely self-contained vessel at sea get any CoV-SARS-2 virus particles on it to cause an infection? Which raises the question of how did the virus get on to the USS Theodore Roosevelt.

 

[quadraginta]

Show me a film of Guam not flipping over.

It got better.

 

[William Parcher]

That being the case, we should be seeing hundreds or thousands infected from megachurch services, yet they've only been in the low dozens for each church cluster in USA so far.

And if I were to propose that all of those dozens of people were infected via aerosols... you would have no way to rule it out.

Let's just wait for further information from researchers.

 

[pipelineaudio]

This doesnt help with the question of whether I should go inside the store or not

 

[William Parcher]

Also, if there are lots of aerosol-borne virus particles about that are infecting people we'd be seeing much faster spread than we are.

I hear you but it's still speculation until further information comes.

We might even find that millions of people now show antibodies because they inhaled aerosols but the vast majority never got a big enough dose to test positive or show symptoms.

 

[marting]

That being the case, we should be seeing hundreds or thousands infected from megachurch services, yet they've only been in the low dozens for each church cluster in USA so far.

I can't say I spend much time in church, but I'm pretty sure they do a lot of singing.

Sure, but mega churches tend to be very large. Volume of air, and dilution of aerosols goes up very rapidly compared to a meeting room for choir practice. Like being outside is pretty safe but I wouldn't want to be in a meeting room with a lot of people yapping.

Good article on the issue:

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/...us-pandemic-airborne-go-outside-masks/609235/

 

[rjh01]

Can you share links? I haven't seen those stories yet. I'm not denying that they exist. All the articles I can find relating to NY today are saying that it's going to happen, not that it has.

A 68-bed makeshift hospital is expected to open in Central Park on Tuesday in an effort to ease some of the strain on the city's hospitals that have been bombarded with COVID-19 patients.

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/central-park-site-hospital-coronavirus-patients/story?id=69893623

How often does this happen in New York?

 

[Doghouse Reilly]

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/central-park-site-hospital-coronavirus-patients/story?id=69893623

How often does this happen in New York?

So some evangelical Christian charity builds a makeshift hospital IN ANTICIPATION of it being needed. Get back to me when it's needed. This is more of the same "sandbags being proof of an impending flood".

How often does this happen in NY? Well, how often do we have mass hysteria and panic like this? Pretty much never. It's evidence of nothing except belief.

At this point I'm pretty much done arguing about it. The numbers will prove me right. We're already seeing that the supposed apocalyptic exponential growth is not happening, so it will all be clear soon enough.

 

[William Parcher]

This doesnt help with the question of whether I should go inside the store or not

Unless they have SPAM, I wouldn't bother.

BTW, has there been any violence in Hawaii yet over this essential food?