Cont: 2019-nCoV / Corona virus Pt 3

[dudalb]

And the head of the Russian Anti Corona Programm has tested positive...and he has been in close contact with Putin. This could get interesting.

 

[DevilsAdvocate]

Doghouse Riley, we can look at some numbers. Covid is somewhat “like the flu”. We can compare flu data with covid data. The CDC flu estimates for 2018-19 can be found at https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html. That report says:

“CDC estimates that the burden of illness during the 2018–2019 season included an estimated 35.5 million people getting sick with influenza, 16.5 million people going to a health care provider for their illness, 490,600 hospitalizations, and 34,200 deaths from influenza.”

Keep in mind that the estimate for people getting sick is not the same as the number of people who tested positive. Those are two different numbers. The estimates for number of people who got sick are based on the number of people who contacted a health care provider and a survey of how many people who felt sick did or did not contacted a health care provider. (There is a link to the methodology in the “Introduction” section in the link above).

The CDC has estimated that in the U.S. covid could result in 160-214 million infections, 2.4-21 million hospitalizations, and 200,000 to 1.7 million deaths. Those are the high and low numbers from four possible scenarios. These have been presented with the high numbers being no intervention and the low numbers being with more intervention with the types of measures that are being put in place now. (This information was released March 13 by the CDC in a conference with epidemic experts from universities, and was first reported by the NY Times. I have not been able to find an actual copy of a CDC presentation or report, so I don’t know exactly what the scenarios are that they covered. These numbers were used in a chart in a Presidential press conference; a link to that is in post #989 above.)

With the flu, we get 35 million sick and 34,200 deaths, for a rate of 0.1%. With the covid low end we have 160 million sick and 200,000 deaths for a rate of 0.13%. The high end is 214 million sick with 1.7 mill deaths for a rate of 0.79%. (Note that these rates are deaths per illness, not deaths per confirmed cases.)

Covid is “like the flu” in that it has similar symptoms and effects. It will likely be more deadly than the flu. The flu vaccination prepares the immune system against the flu virus. This not only decreases the number of people who get sick, but also results in milder cases of those who do get sick. We also have a cure for flu such as Tamiflu. With no vaccination or treatment for covid, we should see a higher rate of serious illness and death.

Covid infections will likely follow a bell curve, much like seasonal cold and flu. That’s what we saw with SARS and MERS and with the Spanish flu. Although with the Spanish flu the curve peaked steeply (like the covid projections for no intervention) and there was a second wave, possibly as a result of a mutation. Spanish flu killed about 675,000 in the U.S. and 50 million worldwide (although it might have been twice that many, we don’t exactly know.)

Covid is “like the flu” except that the CDC numbers estimate it will be 4.5-6 times as widespread and result in a higher rate of hospitalizations and deaths. That’s a lot. Hospitals are often already overwhelmed during flu season. This rate can put hospitals well beyond capacity, which will result in a higher death rate.

The idea of intervention is to flatten the curve. That means that not only do you get about 25% less infections and hospitalizations, but more importantly they don’t all happen at once. They get spread out over a lower curve. That means hospitals are not as overwhelmed, which reduces the death rate (and serious permanent effects like organ damage, blindness, etc.). That’s why CDC estimates only 200,000 deaths with intervention but 1.7 million without. Intervention will save over 1.5 million lives in the United States alone.

 

[angrysoba]

So, for the "It's just like the flu" crowd...

...the US is now saying that there would be between 1.5 million and 2.2 million deaths in the US without mitigation.

With extreme mitigation of the sort that many here are complaining of the number of deaths could be reduced to 100,000 - 240,000 deaths.

 

[Blue Mountain]

The current situation in Canada

Province, territory or other | Number of confirmed cases | Number of deaths |
British Columbia|

970​

|

19​

|
Alberta|

754​

|

9​

|
Saskatchewan|

184​

|

2​

|
Manitoba|

103​

|

1​

|
Ontario|

1,966​

|

33​

|
Quebec|

4,162​

|

31​

|
New Brunswick|

70​

|

0​

|
Nova Scotia|

147​

|

0​

|
Prince Edward Island|

21​

|

0​

|
Newfoundland and Labrador|

152​

|

1​

|
Yukon|

5​

|

0​

|
Northwest Territories|

1​

|

0​

|
Nunavut|

0​

|

0​

|
Repatriated travellers|

13​

|

0​

|
Total |

8,548​

|

96​

|

Confirmed cases are up 15% from yesterday (from 7,437); deaths are up 8% (from 89).


The latest points covered by CBC News

• Federal government investing $2B in made-in-Canada protective medical equipment
• Ontario school closures to last until at least May
• Manitoba K-12 schools closed indefinitely
• What that surge in U.S. cases means as Canada's neighbour becomes COVID-19 epicentre
• American official says U.S. has dropped idea of placing troops near Canadian border
• Some health experts questioning advice against wider use of masks to slow spread of COVID-19
• Canada's economy was slowing even before COVID-19 hit, January GDP numbers show
• Bill Blair asks prison, parole heads to consider releasing some inmates to stop spread of COVID-19
• 'We can't handle them': B.C. mayor pleading with Albertans not to visit during COVID-19
• Manitoba to shut down non-critical services April 1 to slow spread of COVID-19

Growth curve

Date | Cases | Change
2020-03-13|

155​

|
2020-03-16|

440​

|

183.9%​

|
2020-03-18|

656​

|

49.1%​

|
2020-03-19|

873​

|

33.1%​

|
2020-03-20|

926​

|

6.1%​

|
2020-03-21|

1,081​

|

16.7%​

|
2020-03-22|

1,471​

|

36.1%​

|
2020-03-23|

2,091​

|

42.1%​

|
2020-03-24|

2,792​

|

33.5%​

|
2020-03-25|

3,409​

|

22.1%​

|
2020-03-26|

4,043​

|

18.6%​

|
2020-03-27|

4,689​

|

16.0%​

|
2020-03-28|

5,425​

|

15.7%​

|
2020-03-29|

6,258​

|

15.4%​

|
2020-03-30|

7,437​

|

18.8%​

|
2020-03-31|

8,548​

|

14.9%​

|

At 14.9%, this is the lowest growth to date, aside from 6.1% back on March 20, which may have been as the result of a quirk in the testing process.


Canada vs the USA. Because Canada's population is 1/8.7 that of the States, typically ratios for raw numbers in many areas run 1:8.7 (or 10 to 87) for Canada:USA.

The source for Tested is Wikipedia. The source for Confirmed cases and Deaths is also Wikipedia. That page is often more up-to-date than the Canadian government page, meaning the numbers for confirmed cases and deaths may differ from what I posted above.

Metric | Canada | Expected US number based on 1:8.7 ratio | Actual US Number | Actual Canada:US ratio | Yesterday's ratio
COVID-19 tests|

244,421​

|

2,126,463​

|

1,108,500​

|

1:4.5​

|

1:4.5​

|
COVID-19 cases|

8,579​

|

51,147​

|

189,445​

|

1:22​

|

1:22​

|
COVID-19 deaths|

101​

|

879​

|

4,075​

|

1:40​

|

1:35​

|

The US is not ramping up testing as quickly as I had thought they would, but it's only Monday. Confirmed cases remain steady at a 1:22 ratio when comparing the US and Canada. The ratio for deaths jumped to 1:40; however, this ratio is dependent on the number of deaths seen in each country and will likely fluctuate day by day.

 

[The Atheist]

SK only tested subjects self-selected with symptoms,...

Utter nonsense. They tested contacts widely and have completed 50 times more tests than infected cases.

On the numbers SK is testing infections would be showing up if they exist.

I'm sorry the facts aren't supporting you.

And the head of the Russian Anti Corona Programm has tested positive...and he has been in close contact with Putin. This could get interesting.

Of all the world's leaders Vlad should be the safest - extremely fit, non-smoker and good BMI. If Prince Charles got a mild dose, I'd expect Putin to get no worse.

 

[Samson]

You aiming for a new Tui Billboard, mate?

No, but the same doctor who predicts that wrote on Feb 6

Dear Liam (Dann)

I am not at all complacent about this germ and do think it will result in significant and lasting economic contraction
Thus far new cases are forming an exponential trajectory.
it is this that concerns me

The most dangerous aspect of the virus is that it is contagious while latent and also that mortality wherever the virus has spread to has-been around 2.5 percent
This suggests that there is unlikely to be any native immunity to the virus and also that all racial groups affected are equally susceptible,

As has already been noted travel within China and out of China has increased greatly in the last 17 years.

The cat is 100 percent out of the bag and quarantine measures may be too late,

At the minimum it will have a major effect upon the international tourist industry,

if the current growth continues with a doubling of case numbers every 5 days it here will be millions infected within a month and 2.5 percent of that figure could easily be in the 10s of thousands

We will see

I am 64 years old and have seen many economic cycles come and go

This I think will come and come and as it does so panic will set in

I hope I am wrong

kind regards

***********

Soon to return home and bunker down in NZ until this one passes ....

 

[The Atheist]

No, but the same doctor who predicts that wrote on Feb 6

I was 10-14 days in front of him and I don't think there's any chance NZ will be free of it in six weeks.

For crissakes, they're still arguing about testing, with Dippy Barbie saying they can test anyone and doctors calling her on it. We should have been testing thousands of people three weeks ago.

Five tests for one GP practice.

These clowns are fiddling while Rome burns.

 

[Samson]

I was 10-14 days in front of him and I don't think there's any chance NZ will be free of it in six weeks.

For crissakes, they're still arguing about testing, with Dippy Barbie saying they can test anyone and doctors calling her on it. We should have been testing thousands of people three weeks ago.

Five tests for one GP practice.

These clowns are fiddling while Rome burns.

Then I'm sunk.
6 weeks is my limit.

 

[pipelineaudio]

Not sure if this video has been posted for, but this guy makes a lot lot lot of claims that seem counter to a lot of what has been the established wisdom

https://vimeo.com/399733860

Really seems to be making a lot of claims about spread and how easily you can be safe by keeping your hands off of your face that he really can't know. Actually seems like very dangerous advice

 

[Planigale]

Fauci and cdc are saying 200,000 could die with 160 million infected. That works out to a fatality rate of 0.1%, same as normal flu.

As far as I'm concerned the case is closed. We have the US government itself projecting 0.1% death rate. A coronavirus with that death rate compared to total infections is literally, by definition "normal flu". We have this German doctor:

https://youtu.be/p_AyuhbnPOI

explaining how this hype happened (10 minute vid, he'sa pulmonologist and flu expert, well worth the watch), and how it's a case of the emperor having no clothes. We have northern Italy as an anamalous hotspot, which we have somewhere every year, we just don't tend to hear about it. We have the media machine hyping it up, reporting on every case and every celeb. It's all bs. Explain how it's not. I've been searching and have found the same reports on overflowing hospitals for the regular flu in the past. Here's just one example:

https://time.com/5107984/hospitals-handling-burden-flu-patients/?amp=true

It's exactly the same.

So we have we now have the US government on record as officially reporting a flu-level 0.1% projected death rate and the media reports it as "Grim death toll projected." They could just as well have said "Promising new projections indicate epidemic may end up no with death rate no worse than normal flu".

Someone smarter than me please explain how this isn't all a bunch of BS, because I'm not a conspiracy theorist or a denialist about most things but this is really striking me as questionable.

Apples and oranges.

The death rate quoted for Covid-19 is case fatality rate (CFR), that for flu is infected fatality rate (IFR). The former is always higher than the latter even for the same illness. But assume they are the same and IFR for covid-19 is the same as flu at 0.1% Why is it still worse?

For endemic (seasonal) flu most of the population are immune or partially immune due to the continuous circulation of flu. There is antigenic drift, but the body can still respond partially so still has some immunity.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/viruses/change.htm
If we look at global flu deaths; they are about 500,000 / yr.
https://fullfact.org/health/coronavirus-compare-influenza/
So if we assume the IFR of covid-19 is 0.1%, the population of the world is 6,000 million all of which are susceptible then you are looking at 6 million deaths roughly ten times more. This is because of the differences in susceptible populations. (In part of course the flu susceptible population is reduced by vaccination particularly of high risk groups).

Then you have to look at the time course, the R₀ of flu is about 1.5, that of covid-19 is about 3. Because epidemics are exponential in their growth that two fold difference means that you get ten times more deaths in a shorter interval than flu season deaths.

Finally, it is not the deaths that are a burden to the health service but those who don't die. Many people are ill and need treatment for pneumonia, oxygen or ventilation, and they may need that for 1 or 2 weeks. Probably ten times the number who die are ill and need high level hospital care, for a prolonged period.

i hope this explains why even if covid-19 is intrinsically no more dangerous than flu the impact on the health services is far greater; much larger numbers of ill people over a much shorter time than occurs even in the worst flu season.

Most medical staff aren't used to providing care to people with dangerous (to them) infections, and the procedures are more time consuming and anxiety promoting. So that adds an extra burden. Most of the doctors you hear complaining about PPE etc. are not ID and respiratory doctors (pulmonologists) who are experienced in managing respiratory infections but others like cardiologists for whom this is a novel experience.

Just for comparison the single largest cause of deaths from a respiratory infection remains tuberculosis. TB kills 4,000 people a day, roughly 400,000 so far this year, whilst deaths so far from covid-19 this year are about 42,000. TB is a curable disease if appropriate resources are allocated, but of course most of these deaths are in resource poor countries. When the current pandemic of covid-19 is over next year I'd like you all to remember the pandemic of TB continues.

 

[Planigale]

The UK will add some interesting stats given they've decided 7 days after onset is the time to leave isolation. No idea if that includes a post disease test.

I think you have to remember that is the individual isolation within the household. Other members of the household have to isolate for 14 days then if they get symptoms in that time they go into seven days isolation. Even once one is out of isolation social distancing rules still apply so there is minimal contact outside of your household.

 

[Arcade22]

In April, most Swedes will be infected, calculations show. By the end of the month, around half of the population will be infected, according to Professor Tom Britton.
- If there is any month you should do yourself and others a job by staying home then it is now in April, he says.

April is the month when the spread of the corona virus will be most intense. This is according to Tom Britton, professor of mathematical statistics at Stockholm University, who works with models of how infectious diseases behave in a population.

- This is such an infectious disease that over half of Sweden's population will be infected before the end of April. After that, the spread of infection will not stop, but it will go slightly slower so that about two-thirds will be infected by the end of May, he says.

Not the same risk
The calculations are based on the fact that between half a million and one million Swedes are currently infected.

- It is a fairness assessment that I would not pledge my house to. But if I could say between 250,000 and a million and a half, instead. Then I would probably dare put the house in pledge, says Tom Britton.

..

 

[The Atheist]

Then I'm sunk.
6 weeks is my limit.

I know of quite a few employers, including one of NZ's biggest, that have told staff to plan for 12 weeks.

i hope this explains why even if covid-19 is intrinsically no more dangerous than flu the impact on the health services is far greater; much larger numbers of ill people over a much shorter time than occurs even in the worst flu season.

Thanks for that - it's what I said right at the start when people were wondering why it's such a big deal. The part that gets overlooked is the other medical cases during the peak phase - people without Covid-19 are dying as a result of it.

I dunno about other countries, but all transplants have been stopped here, which will unquestionably cost dozens of lives, and that's in our tiny population.

And a million thanks for posting from the front line. We have a permanent spot for you in the world-famous Good Bastards Club if you get down this way at any stage.

Just for comparison the single largest cause of deaths from a respiratory infection remains tuberculosis. TB kills 4,000 people a day, roughly 400,000 so far this year, whilst deaths so far from covid-19 this year are about 42,000. TB is a curable disease if appropriate resources are allocated, but of course most of these deaths are in resource poor countries. When the current pandemic of covid-19 is over next year I'd like you all to remember the pandemic of TB continues.

Excellent point.

 

[The Atheist]

.

But if I could say between 250,000 and a million and a half, instead. Then I would probably dare put the house in pledge, says Tom Britton.

.

I'd take that bet. I'd guarantee the numbers are higher than official cases, but 100 times more seems highly unlikely.

Quite amazing how divergent scientists are on this.

Use the wisdom of the crowd.
____________________________

Meanwhile, one for the doubters: https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-52114476

Healthy 13-year-old boy dies in UK.

 

[The Atheist]

Yeah, this sort of stuff happens every 'flu season.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-52089337

 

[Samson]

I'd take that bet. I'd guarantee the numbers are higher than official cases, but 100 times more seems highly unlikely.

Quite amazing how divergent scientists are on this.

Use the wisdom of the crowd.
____________________________

Meanwhile, one for the doubters: https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-52114476

Healthy 13-year-old boy dies in UK.

Statistically unhelpful, you could equally say, the exception proves the rule in a case like this.

 

[The Atheist]

Statistically unhelpful, you could equally say, the exception proves the rule in a case like this.

Statistics are quite often unhelpful.

On the quoted doctor's 0.0006% chance of dying, I make that almost 10,000 dead 13 year-olds around the world.

Hardly worth counting.

Like I said a long time back - we could all embrace Stalin.

"One death is tragedy, one million deaths is statistic."

 

[Klimax]

Completely and utterly wrong. They have analysed the genetic code. They even have pictures of them.

And before pictures we already had it modeled:
Rosetta’s role in fighting coronavirus

 

[novaphile]

Australia's numbers today.

(From Johns Hopkins):

State | Confirmed | Deaths | Recovered | Active
New South Wales |

2,169​

|

9​

|

4​

|

2,169​

|
Victoria |

968​

|

4​

|

343​

|

621​

|
Queensland |

771​

|

2​

|

8​

|

771​

|
Western Australia |

392​

|

2​

|

48​

|

392​

|
South Australia |

367​

|

0​

|

6​

|

361​

|
Tasmania |

69​

|

2​

|

5​

|

62​

|
Australian Capital Territory |

84​

|

1​

|

8​

|

75​

|
Northern Territory |

19​

|

0​

|

0​

|

19​

|
Total |

4,862​

|

20​

|

422​

|

4,420​

|

I'm not posting the numbers at a specific time of day, so my increase is not the official daily increase in overall numbers which looks like this:

Date | Count | % Change
21 Mar 2020|

280​

| |
22 Mar 2020|

478​

|

71​

|
23 Mar 2020|

133​

|

-72​

|
24 Mar 2020|

362​

|

172​

|
25 Mar 2020|

320​

|

-12​

|
26 Mar 2020|

446​

|

39​

|
27 Mar 2020|

333​

|

-25​

|
28 Mar 2020|

497​

|

49​

|
29 Mar 2020|

344​

|

-31​

|
30 Mar 2020|

377​

|

10​

|
31 Mar 2020|

198​

|

-47​

|

With such small numbers the daily % change in new cases is a bit of a roller-coaster ride.

As a wise man once said: "Two plots do not make a trend."

 

[Belz...]

Apologies if this has already been posted.

You're back!!!!