Cont: 2019-nCoV / Corona virus Pt 3

[Skeptic Ginger]

15 Out the the 60 not accounted for [infected]. More information about them might be more interesting than the other 45.

'ft' to make it easier to understand.

Good point.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

Each of these people had innumerable other opportunities to get infected in the same time frame.

There was little to no COVID circulating in the area at the time and that would be a huge unlikely coincidence.

Got another?

 

[Sherkeu]

There was little to no COVID circulating in the area at the time and that would be a huge unlikely coincidence.

The main South Korean doctor in charge of infections diseases in Seoul says it can be transmitted through air with singing or yelling.

When people cough, the droplets dont travel far and are heavier. People don't lift their heads to cough or project from the diaphragm.

While singing, the droplets go much farther, have time to dry out a bit, get lighter in weight, and then can be carried through air all around, not just straight ahead- especially in an enclosed space.

ETA: link to doctor interview coming...

Professor Kim Woo-joo on Asian Boss. Great interview! aerosol transmission answer at 11:15

 

[angrysoba]

No answers needed. I like the additional information to add to the speculating.

I had a look at any other news about it. The Japanese newspaper, Asahi, had a story about it:

An So-young had a gut feeling that the 31st person in South Korea to test positive for the coronavirus might be a member of the controversial religious sect she quit four years ago.

The person, dubbed “Patient 31,” was the first of an explosive wave of cases that made South Korea’s outbreak the largest outside of China. What caught An’s attention was how health authorities were struggling to track the woman’s movements before she was tested.

“That’s their culture, they have to hide their movements, and that’s why I guessed she was with Shincheonji,” An, 27, said in an interview, referring to the Shincheonji Church of Jesus.

Patient 31 attended services at the church’s branch in the southeastern city of Daegu this month, staying for two hours each time, before testing positive on Feb. 18.

The South Korean disease control chief Jeong Eun-kyeong said the church’s services, where thousands of people sit on the floor, shoulder-to-shoulder, for hours, could have contributed to the surges.

“You would be 5 centimeters away from the person who sits next to you and have to say ‘Amen’ after every sentence the pastor speaks--it’s the best environment for the virus to spread,” said An, who is now a theology student.

In a media interview, Patient 31 said she did not refuse to be tested. But health authorities said she sought care at a traditional medicine hospital in Daegu after a minor car accident, where a medical worker who treated her later tested positive for the virus. While running a fever, she went to a buffet at a hotel and the church services.

http://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/13169453

I think her description, rather than her certainty about the "best environment for the virus to spread" (She's a theology student!) may be relevant.

 

[marting]

Hardly a long incubation time. To summarize, the Skagit Valley Chorale practice occurred on 3/10

According to the LAT article: https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-03-29/coronavirus-choir-outbreak

3 days later a woman experienced symptoms and later that night 2 others texted her they were also sick. The next morning the husband woke sick and they started hearing from others that were symptomatic. The couple was tested for flu and samples sent out for coronavirus testing. 4 days later the results came back positive.

On 3/17 health officials were alerted and tracing/testing begun.

All 28 members that were tested for COVID-19 were positive.

45 out of the 60 members were symptomatic. 2 were dead as of 3/29.

Singing involves forcing air from the lungs through a vibrating set of vocal chords. Sure sounds like aerosol spread to me.

Interesting that only 15 out of the 60 were asymptomatic. This is strong evidence against the crazy notion that some really large portion of infected people remain asymptomatic. Let alone "orders of magnitude" that has been tossed around by twits that wish to downplay the danger of COVID-19.

 

[DevilsAdvocate]

OK, here's one to play around with.

...

That's not exactly a rapid onset for most of them.

So, airborne? Do we have the incubation period too short?

Speculate away.

You have to be careful with journalism. Journalists tell a story. It's not an academic study. It's not raw data. It like a game of telephone.

The New York Post article says "But nearly three weeks later, dozens of members started to feel sick." Where did they get that information? From an LA Times article.

What does the LA Times article actually say? It says "Nearly three weeks later, 45 have been diagnosed with COVID-19 or ill with the symptoms, at least three have been hospitalized, and two are dead."

The choir practice was March 10. The LA Times article was published March 29. That's 19 days. Nearly 3 weeks. The author is just reporting the total numbers that have occurred during that nearly 3 week period. There is nothing in that article about people who "started" to feel sick "nearly three weeks later". It was either a misinterpretation or or misrepresentation by the NY Post author.

The LA Times article does mention some dates on which people began to feel symptoms or notified someone that they were experiencing symptoms. Those dates are 3-8 days after the choir practice, which falls exactly within what academic studies have concluded for the time from exposure to symptoms.

 

[marting]

You have to be careful with journalism. Journalists tell a story. It's not an academic study. It's not raw data. It like a game of telephone.

The New York Post article says "But nearly three weeks later, dozens of members started to feel sick." Where did they get that information? From an LA Times article.

Yeah, crappy job of reporting by the NYPOST but what else is new. LA Times was much better with enough detail to be useful. At least the NYPOST linked to it.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

Hardly a long incubation time. To summarize, the Skagit Valley Chorale practice occurred on 3/10

According to the LAT article: https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-03-29/coronavirus-choir-outbreak

3 days later a woman experienced symptoms and later that night 2 others texted her they were also sick. The next morning the husband woke sick and they started hearing from others that were symptomatic. The couple was tested for flu and samples sent out for coronavirus testing. 4 days later the results came back positive.

On 3/17 health officials were alerted and tracing/testing begun.

All 28 members that were tested for COVID-19 were positive.

45 out of the 60 members were symptomatic. 2 were dead as of 3/29.

Singing involves forcing air from the lungs through a vibrating set of vocal chords. Sure sounds like aerosol spread to me.

Interesting that only 15 out of the 60 were asymptomatic. This is strong evidence against the crazy notion that some really large portion of infected people remain asymptomatic. Let alone "orders of magnitude" that has been tossed around by twits that wish to downplay the danger of COVID-19.

Thank you for that additional information.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

You have to be careful with journalism. Journalists tell a story. It's not an academic study. It's not raw data. It like a game of telephone.

The New York Post article says "But nearly three weeks later, dozens of members started to feel sick." Where did they get that information? From an LA Times article.

What does the LA Times article actually say? It says "Nearly three weeks later, 45 have been diagnosed with COVID-19 or ill with the symptoms, at least three have been hospitalized, and two are dead."

The choir practice was March 10. The LA Times article was published March 29. That's 19 days. Nearly 3 weeks. The author is just reporting the total numbers that have occurred during that nearly 3 week period. There is nothing in that article about people who "started" to feel sick "nearly three weeks later". It was either a misinterpretation or or misrepresentation by the NY Post author.

The LA Times article does mention some dates on which people began to feel symptoms or notified someone that they were experiencing symptoms. Those dates are 3-8 days after the choir practice, which falls exactly within what academic studies have concluded for the time from exposure to symptoms.

That's an important detail.

Don't dismiss this as iffy reporting.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

Yeah, crappy job of reporting by the NYPOST but what else is new. LA Times was much better with enough detail to be useful. At least the NYPOST linked to it.

LA Times limits the number of articles you can see per month. Always better to have a more direct source for clarity of details.

 

[casebro]

There was little to no COVID circulating in the area at the time and that would be a huge unlikely coincidence.

Got another?

Well SOMEBODY ro SOMBODIES brought the Covid to the meeting.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

Well SOMEBODY ro SOMBODIES brought the Covid to the meeting.

Pretty sure that's a given.

 

[casebro]

Not too many teenagers in a choir, more likely that a choir has oldsters with co-morbidities. Do we know the pro-band(s)? A choir trip to China maybe?

Or are we supposed to reserve our speculations for the intra-choir spreading?

 

[marting]

Pretty sure that's a given.

Maybe it was an immaculate infection.

 

[casebro]

Oh, and speaking of groups in your neighborhood, any new data on the care home staff?

 

[GraculusTheGreenBird]

This is the problem: Someone coughs on the packet of bread, you bring it home, wash your hands and then open it up to make a sandwich, transferring viral particles from the packet to the bread in the meantime.

Awareness of this problem is spreading, and people are starting to deal with it.

A mild Bleach/Dettol solution in a spray bottle, spray or wipe everything you get from the supermarket after you remove it from the shopping bag. Let it air dry for a few hours. Put away.

Anything plastic wrapped meats or that needs refrigeration can be simply washed with soap and water, then put away immediately, as we know plain old soap is great at destroying the virus lipid membrane.

My parents have even developed a novel method of dealing with a delivered newspaper, involving reading the outer pages on the floor, then removing those pages with their feet and disposing of them, leaving the less likely contaminated inner pages. Even so, they are careful to wash hands after handling it, and not eat during reading.

 

[DevilsAdvocate]

That's an important detail.

Don't dismiss this as iffy reporting.

The NY Post statement that people began to feel sick nearly three weeks later is certainly "iffy" reporting. It is a false statement that is an incorrect re-write of the Times article. It is not true.

The fact that people began to show or report symptoms 3-8 days after the practice is an important detail. It shows consistency with academic reports and the information being provided by the WHO and CDC. It's nice to have some anecdotal evidence to support those conclusions.

 

[Athyrio]

Exponential

Jamie Dupree reported the other day that the first USA death from Covid 19 was February 29. On March 25 it was 1000. Three days later the tally reached 2000. Today, only two days later, it is 3008.

Stay inside if you are able. Don't feed the beast, at least, not all at once.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

Oh, and speaking of groups in your neighborhood, any new data on the care home staff?

KIRO: Nurses taking care of Life Care Center patients describe what they saw inside the facility

KUOW: Did Grandma bring coronavirus to the Kirkland nursing home? A family weighs the evidence

Well worth reading that 2nd one all the way through.

The first is an important interview with the nurses who had worked at the Life Care Center for ~10-25 years.

 

[Blue Mountain]

The current situation in Canada

Province, territory or other | Number of confirmed cases | Number of deaths |
British Columbia|

960​

|

19​

|
Alberta|

690​

|

8​

|
Saskatchewan|

175​

|

2​

|
Manitoba|

96​

|

1​

|
Ontario|

1,706​

|

33​

|
Quebec|

3,430​

|

25​

|
New Brunswick|

68​

|

0​

|
Nova Scotia|

128​

|

0​

|
Prince Edward Island|

18​

|

0​

|
Newfoundland and Labrador|

148​

|

1​

|
Yukon|

5​

|

0​

|
Northwest Territories|

1​

|

0​

|
Nunavut|

0​

|

0​

|
Repatriated travellers|

13​

|

0​

|
Total |

7,437​

|

89​

|

Confirmed cases are up 19% from yesterday (from 6258); deaths are up 46% (from 61). I suspect the big jump in the death counter is the result of this being Monday, and deaths over the weekend weren't officially reported and recorded by the government until today. The same may be true for the 19% increase in the case count, which has been at about 16% for the three days prior. We'll have to wait until tomorrow to see if this hypothesis holds out. (I saw the same thing last Monday as well.)


The latest points covered by CBC News

• All businesses seeing 30% drop in revenue due to pandemic will be eligible for 75% wage subsidies: Trudeau
• Chiropractors told to remove posts claiming they boost immune system and prevent COVID-19
• Suspected, confirmed COVID-19 patients filling roughly 1 in 4 Ontario ICU beds
• Farmers concerned about disruptions to spring seeding, livestock operations amid COVID-19
• Young people have no 'bulletproof' protection from COVID-19 — particularly smokers and vapers
• Oil price falls below $20 US a barrel, its lowest since 2002, and Alberta oilsands crude is almost worthless

Growth curve

Date | Cases | Change
2020-03-13|

155​

|
2020-03-16|

440​

|

183.9%​

|
2020-03-18|

656​

|

49.1%​

|
2020-03-19|

873​

|

33.1%​

|
2020-03-20|

926​

|

6.1%​

|
2020-03-21|

1,081​

|

16.7%​

|
2020-03-22|

1,471​

|

36.1%​

|
2020-03-23|

2,091​

|

42.1%​

|
2020-03-24|

2,792​

|

33.5%​

|
2020-03-25|

3,409​

|

22.1%​

|
2020-03-26|

4,043​

|

18.6%​

|
2020-03-27|

4,689​

|

16.0%​

|
2020-03-28|

5,425​

|

15.7%​

|
2020-03-29|

6,258​

|

15.4%​

|
2020-03-30|

7,437​

|

18.8%​

|

The day-over-day change took a jump today, possibly (hopefully?) due to slower than normal reporting over the weekend. I'm hoping this is an anomaly. Much the same thing happened last Monday, with an unusually large jump on Monday followed by a notable reduction on Tuesday.


Canada vs the USA. Because Canada's population is 1/8.7 that of the States, typically ratios for raw numbers in many areas run 1:8.7 (or 10 to 87) for Canada:USA.

The source for Tested is Wikipedia. The source for Confirmed cases and Deaths is also Wikipedia. That page is often more up-to-date than the Canadian government page, meaning the numbers for confirmed cases and deaths may differ from what I posted above.

Metric | Canada | Expected US number based on 1:8.7 ratio | Actual US Number | Actual Canada:US ratio | Yesterday's ratio
COVID-19 tests|

225,705​

|

1,963,633​

|

1,010,236​

|

1:4.5​

|

1:4.3​

|
COVID-19 cases|

7,435​

|

64,685​

|

163,479​

|

1:22​

|

1:22​

|
COVID-19 deaths|

89​

|

757​

|

3,146​

|

1:35​

|

1:41​

|

The US continues to close the "testing gap" with respect to Canada, if more slowly than I would expect. But it was the weekend. With the start of a new work week we may see the US significantly ramping up its testing. The ratio of Canadian cases to US cases remains steady at 1:22. A big jump in the number of recorded deaths in Canada (possibly due to slow reporting over the weekend) has noticeably narrowed the ratio on deaths from 1:41 yesterday to 1:35 today.