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Cont: 2019-nCoV / Corona virus Pt 3

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lionking said:
Gut feel? Because we have been doing all that the experts have asked and I would have expected a reduction sooner or later.
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Australia has taken measures to reduce the infection rate. I would agree we should be seeing a reduction about now because of that. If we do not then the measures are not working. A lot depends on the timing between a person actually getting infected and their results coming out.

Then there are people who are infected who come into the country. The measures will not impact on these numbers. They need to go into quarantine on arrival or they may start infecting other people.
 
casebro said:
Geeze. Every hospital bed I've ever been in had an inter-com to the nurse's station. And a land line. Use one of those.

Or are you so far back in the woods you use rotary dialed party lines? Put your finger in the hole, rotate the dial, remove your finger, let the hand piece go spark-spark-spark- for every digit?

And you disconnected the intercomm- the patient had to start it by blowing in the hose, the nurse heard the whistle, removed the plug, listened to the patient " More steeam! Full Steam Ahead! I want to lick this Virus the Finnish way!" :D I guess covid patients can't blow hard enough for the whistle?
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No bed space in our hospital has an intercom to nurses station, I have never seen such a system in the UK. Very few have land lines, and with mobiles the need disappeared. Yes intercoms are what we need, but it is not what we have.
 
Planigale said:
No bed space in our hospital has an intercom to nurses station, I have never seen such a system in the UK. Very few have land lines, and with mobiles the need disappeared. Yes intercoms are what we need, but it is not what we have.
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I've seen that in an old folks institution here in Norway. I don't know if it's standard, but that's what they had; telephone and intercom in each of the rooms (more like small apartment).

ETA: That was 15 years ago, so could be different now.
 
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Code: 
Country     Total       Total     Total      New        Total            Active    Serious  Tot Cases/  Deaths/
                 Cases      New     Deaths  Deaths    Recovered    Cases     Critical   Million        Million

[URL="https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/australia/"]Australia[/URL]    4,163      +528       17        +3       244               3,902           28         163     0.7  Jan 24
[URL="https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/"]Sweden[/URL]     3,700      +253      110       +5         16               3,574          255         366    11  Jan 30
What are those figures telling us? Sweden is doing little do manage Covid-19 but Australia is.
 
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That said, these are early days and it is too dangerous to assume that cases will simply peak once and be the end of it. The main issue is, of course, that slowing transmission of the disease within the country only means that there remain a lot of people who are still receptive to the virus.
 
One thing that I’m curious about is the certainty surrounding the 14 day quarantine rule. As I said upthread, my son is a victim, and I assumed he would be tested again before he is allowed out of his hotel room. But no, 14 days, and back to our house.

I’ve been told that the priority is testing those who may be infected rather than retesting previously infected people.

So there must be a great deal of confidence that 14 days is more than a sufficient quarantine period.
 
Death Rates by Country per Million
Italy 172.28
Spain 145.5
Netherlands 45.05
France 40.00
Belgium 37.19
Switzerland 34.66
United Kingdom 18.13
Denmark 12.43
Portugal 11.67
Sweden 10.89
Austria 9.55
United States 7.59
Germany 6.46
Norway 4.80
Greece 3.74
South Korea 3.08
Canada 1.73
Australia .69
Japan .43
 
a_unique_person said:
Code: 
Country     Total       Total     Total      New        Total            Active    Serious  Tot Cases/  Deaths/
                 Cases      New     Deaths  Deaths    Recovered    Cases     Critical   Million        Million

[URL="https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/australia/"]Australia[/URL]    4,163      +528       17        +3       244               3,902           28         163     0.7  Jan 24
[URL="https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/"]Sweden[/URL]     3,700      +253      110       +5         16               3,574          255         366    11  Jan 30
What are those figures telling us? Sweden is doing little do manage Covid-19 but Australia is.
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Could it also be a Northern Hemisphere versus a Southern Hemisphere?
Also considering schools are still open? in Sweden surprisingly the number isn't higher in there.
 
Giordano said:
I think masks should be brightly color coded, eg purple for medical personnel, to avoid black market hoarding,
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That only works until the stock of the colour you need runs out and you have to start using a different one.
 
lionking said:
One thing that I’m curious about is the certainty surrounding the 14 day quarantine rule. As I said upthread, my son is a victim, and I assumed he would be tested again before he is allowed out of his hotel room. But no, 14 days, and back to our house.

I’ve been told that the priority is testing those who may be infected rather than retesting previously infected people.

So there must be a great deal of confidence that 14 days is more than a sufficient quarantine period.
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There really isn't that much confidence about it.

Officially there are still around 100 people who were on the Diamond Princess who are active coronavirus cases, with 15 still in serious or critical condition.

That was weeks ago.
 
Atheist, you have championed the hand-to-mouth transmission as being the primary form of infection. I don't remember if this is because we see intestinal disorders as one of the initial symptoms, or for some other reason.

I propose that inhaling coronavirus in aerosol via the nose is nearly the equivalent of hand-to-mouth. This is because our sinuses drain into our throat and then that is spontaneously swallowed. It's nose-to-stomach instead of hand-to-stomach but with the same result. I'm speculating but I think it has a sound basis.

If this is true then a proper mask is necessary to prevent becoming infected or transmitting infection via aerosol. I'm not talking about droplets produced by coughing or sneezing. I'm talking about aerosols produced by normal exhalation and speaking and singing. We have cases of transmission caused by being in the vicinity of singers who are not coughing or sneezing. MIT informed us that 6 feet away is not nearly far enough.

But I'm not done with my proposals...
 
The eyeballs. When coronavirus is riding in an aerosol form it is going to adhere to your eyeballs. This is the same situation that causes smoke or pollen to irritate your eyes. Your tears ducts drain into your sinuses and so we then have eye-to-stomach transmission. But the eyes themselves can become infected.

Last week I read a story about a nursing home (Washington?) where the staff noticed a symptom in residents which they called "red eye". Without any testing, the staff was able to identify residents with Covid-19 simply because they had red eyes. If they saw red eyes they knew that the resident was infected.

A proper mask won't prevent eye infection via aerosol because the eyeballs are still exposed. Eyeglasses won't stop this either because the aerosol will just flow behind the lenses. What is necessary are specialized protective eye gear that seals against the face with something like foam. I'm also thinking about swim goggles.
 
rjh01 said:
Australia has taken measures to reduce the infection rate. I would agree we should be seeing a reduction about now because of that. If we do not then the measures are not working.
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That is a little too simplistic. I have been looking at some of the maths (well ... YouTubes) behind this.

The isolation measures being undertaken in countries like Australia won't necessarily reduce the total number of people who are ultimately exposed to the virus. What they will do is ensure that the peak infection rate never gets so high that it overwhelms the medical system. The down side is that the peak infection rate occurs later it will take longer before the virus has swept its course.

The Spanish flu of 1918 provides a case study. Philadelphia ignored the warnings and carried on business as usual. Within a few weeks, cases soared and so did the death rate as its hospitals were pushed beyond their ability to cope. However, it was all over for Philadelphia within a few months.

OTOH St. Louis implemented all of the isolation procedures we are seeing today. It had the desired result. The peak infection rate never got so high that its hospitals couldn't cope. Its biggest peak was after the virus had run its course in Philadelphia (probably as its restrictions were relaxed).

This YouTube explains the "flattening the curve" objective. (See from 6:45 for the Philadelphia/St. Louis experience).
 
William Parcher said:
This medical research paper may have been posted before - I don't know.

We are dealing with a novel coronavirus that is viable in aerosol for up to 3 hours...
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2004973
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Yeah, I have seen that paper, and I must admit that I am not competent enough to review it or really understand the methodolgy.

But my take is that "viable in aerosol form for up to 3 hours" is different in meaning to "its main method of transmission is through aerosols".

Presumably the study involved artificially aerosolizing the virus. We know that it can be aerosolized, so how long it can remain viable in that form is not really relevant, is it?

What we want to know is how commonly it aerosolizes and whether it does so outside of medical procedures (and some other not particularly common situations).

In other words, we want to know if people spread it simply by breathing.
 
lionking said:
Gut feel? Because we have been doing all that the experts have asked and I would have expected a reduction sooner or later.
Click to expand...
I think you reacted too late and it's already all over the country. I might be wrong. Time will tell.

You had 10 cases beginning of Feb and community transmission by start of March.
You only started doing something mid March, cancelling meetings of more than 500 and asking travelers to self-isolate.


How aggressive have you been with tracing and quarantining people since the first case? How good are the population in following the distancing measures?
 
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All these quarantine, and other prophylactic measures like masks are only meant to lower the peak and stretch out the curve, thereby lessening the load on medical resources. Which will only lower the deaths by how many people are saved by the medical care. Because meantime we are only biding our time until we have all been exposed.

So, how many patients have recovered after being on a respirator?

How does that compare to archival pneumonia patients?
 
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