Cont: 2019-nCoV / Corona virus Pt 3

[Kings Full]

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Deleted!

 

[Kings Full]

I am increasingly doubting that we can have a conversation. Look at the numbers of deaths in the USA versus other countries and tell me we are doing it right versus them.

See, that's where your reading comprehension is failing you.


I've never once suggested we're doing 'right' thing versus other countries. Not once.

What I have said, and you continue to ignore, is that blaming everything on the federal government while you completely ignore the role that the states have is IN ******* SANE!


See the difference?

 

[alfaniner]

How impossible is it to turn sleep apnea machines into ventilators? We are expecting a peak of 40,000 cases and can get between 400 and 500 ventilators

I posed that question here (somewhere) a while back. I see now (with your later post) that some thought has been given to that. Nice to know I have the home ventilator if I really need it. And a full-face mask (I have a spare), with a proper filter on a shortened hose, would probably suffice for outdoor ventures as well.

 

[Solitaire]

Sorry, but the corona virus in the US cannot be discussed without talking
about the response of the government to it.

You can discuss the government's the response to, or lack thereof, in this thread.

Better: You can compare the response of the United States government
to the response of the Japanese government for example. You can compare
the response of the government of Wisconsin with the government of Florida.
You can show the real world graph of Italy's infection rates by date as compared
to a theoretical graph of doing nothing at all.

This thread centers around informing people about the virus in our world as
to its effects and what we can do about it, if anything.

Try to avoid a much as possible mentioning the name of a politician or the
naming group of politicians that bother you. If a particular politician said
or did something, and in this day and age we all know who said or did
so within minutes, either post on a thread in this section or start one there
on the matter.


P. S. Specifically in this thread, now that I'm reading it. I'm burning with a
desire to know the theoretic projections of the virus growth in the population
of the United States. What actions people take in avoiding the virus. Do those
actions actually work? And, if one does get the virus, what does one do then?

 

[Cheetah]

South Africa is in lockdown with 927 cases, up by 218 yesterday.

All borders are closed for people, a few ports open for goods.
Movement between provinces and districts prohibited.

In short we are allowed to collect social grants, buy food, seek medical attention, visit the pharmacy for medicine and access public transportation for essential services during specific times.

We are not allowed to go jogging in public, walk your dog in public or buy alcohol, sale and movement has been banned.

All gatherings have been prohibited, including gatherings on public roads, buildings, places and premises.

No access to public parks, markets, public swimming pools, beaches, nightclubs, casinos, lodges, guesthouses, hotels, private and public game reserves, holiday resorts, shopping malls (excluding grocery store and pharmacies), cinemas, taverns, bars, shebeens and any place normally open to the public where religious, cultural, sporting, entertainment, recreational, organisational or similar activities may take place.

A gathering of 50 people will be allowed at a funeral.
Coal and gold mining will carry on.

We received forms over whatsapp from the local police last night.

It seems that we are at least allowed to go outside 'for physical activity or for pet needs, provided that there are not more than two people together and restrict themselves in areas adjacent to their residence'.

I have no idea yet how the forms are supposed to work.

 

[The Atheist]

U.S. Seeks Coronavirus Tests From South Korea

Whoa, there's some deep irony there.

P. S. Specifically in this thread, now that I'm reading it. I'm burning with a
desire to know the theoretic projections of the virus growth in the population
of the United States.

Unchecked, cases will grow at 30% a day, until 50% of the population has had it, then fall away, ultimately infecting 60-70%.

What actions people take in avoiding the virus.

China has shown the only way to stop it is to remove all person - person contact. Without that, or 100% testing, it will keep coming back until it gets to that 60% threshhold.

Do those actions actually work?

Whether or not the country manages to avoid it, you can take actions personally to reduce the chances of infection to virtually nil.

Distance - stay at least 2 metres away from everyone, and further if the person is sick. I wouldn't get within 10 metres of a sick person, if I could avoid getting closer.

Shop infrequently, use contactless payment where possible, and treat all grocery packets as infected and clean them with bleach or alcohol, unless they're dry packets or cans, in which case you can just put them in the cupboard for at least three days and they should be fine.

Wash hands all the time and don't touch your face.

And don't have kids.

And, if one does get the virus, what does one do then?

Drink as much as you can and call the doctor if you have any difficulty breathing. Stay away from others.

 

[The Atheist]

I have no idea yet how the forms are supposed to work.

Looks to me like you're making a declaration, for which false details would be a criminal offence.

You're still a step or two ahead of us - I reckon 10-20% of Kiwis are flouting the rules.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

https://www.fiercebiotech.com/medte...nes-more-as-emergency-ventilator-alternatives
FDA authorizes CPAP machines and more as emergency ventilator alternatives

Maybe some hope

Those are more like baby or partial ventilators. They really don't do the same thing.

A ventilator pushes a volume of air into the lung at a regular interval. CPAPs merely apply continuous positive air pressure to keep airways open. They are not breathing for you.

 

[angrysoba]

Once again, I wonder if getting a high initial viral load causes the disease to be more severe: https://www.huffpost.com/entry/health-care-workers-world-covid-19_n_5e7b343dc5b620022ab3c832

I thought it was pretty uncontroversial that the effects are dose dependent, which is why a lot of healthcare workers, even those who are younger, are particularly at risk.

 

[Meadmaker]

deleted

 

[angrysoba]

I have no idea yet how the forms are supposed to work.

If they are like the ones in France, they are supposed to be printed out each time you leave the house with your purpose for leaving checked. If you are stopped by the police you are supposed to show the forms, and if you are not doing what you said you should, you will either be instructed to go straight home, or potentially fined.

 

[Kings Full]

Responded in Trump presidency thread (which I think is the new "Covid 19 and USA Politics" thread.

I'm going to delete that post as I hadn't read the warning by the mod when I made it.

Would you mind editing your post to remove it as well?

Thanks.

 

[angrysoba]

Not for the first time, it is being suggested that a better policy might simply be to quarantine the most at-risk members of society and essentially allow the rest of the population to get back to work and back outside.

Any takers?

Well, we could focus our resources on testing and protecting, in every way possible, all those people the data indicate are especially vulnerable to severe infection: the elderly, people with chronic diseases and the immunologically compromised. Those that test positive could be the first to receive the first approved antivirals. The majority, testing negative, could benefit from every resource we have to shield them from exposure.

To be sure, while mortality is highly concentrated in a select groups, it does not stop there. There are poignant, heart-rending tales of severe infection and death from Covid-19 in younger people for reasons we do not know. If we found over time that younger people were also especially vulnerable to the virus, we could expand the at-risk category and extend protections to them.

We have already identified many of the especially vulnerable. A detailed list of criteria could be generated by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, updated daily and circulated widely to health professionals and the public alike. The at-risk population is already subject to the protections of our current policies: social distancing, medical attention for fever or cough. But there are several major problems with subsuming the especially vulnerable within the policies now applied to all.

First, the medical system is being overwhelmed by those in the lower-risk group seeking its resources, limiting its capacity to direct them to those at greatest need. Second, health professionals are burdened not just with work demands, but also with family demands as schools, colleges and businesses are shuttered. Third, sending everyone home to huddle together increases mingling across generations that will expose the most vulnerable.

As the virus is already circulating widely in the United States, with many cases going undetected, this is like sending innumerable lit matches into small patches of tinder. Right now, it is harder, not easier, to keep the especially vulnerable isolated from all others — including members of their own families — who may have been exposed to the virus.

If we were to focus on the especially vulnerable, there would be resources to keep them at home, provide them with needed services and coronavirus testing, and direct our medical system to their early care. I would favor proactive rather than reactive testing in this group, and early use of the most promising anti-viral drugs. This cannot be done under current policies, as we spread our relatively few test kits across the expanse of a whole population, made all the more anxious because society has shut down.

This focus on a much smaller portion of the population would allow most of society to return to life as usual and perhaps prevent vast segments of the economy from collapsing. Healthy children could return to school and healthy adults go back to their jobs. Theaters and restaurants could reopen, though we might be wise to avoid very large social gatherings like stadium sporting events and concerts.

So long as we were protecting the truly vulnerable, a sense of calm could be restored to society. Just as important, society as a whole could develop natural herd immunity to the virus. The vast majority of people would develop mild coronavirus infections, while medical resources could focus on those who fell critically ill. Once the wider population had been exposed and, if infected, had recovered and gained natural immunity, the risk to the most vulnerable would fall dramatically. A pivot right now from trying to protect all people to focusing on the most vulnerable remains entirely plausible.

Link

 

[Roboramma]

Perhaps of interest:

https://marginalrevolution.com/marg...an-is-probably-much-worse-than-you-think.html

The governmental and media consensus is that Japan is weathering covid-19 well. This consensus is wrong. Japan’s true count of covid-19 cases is understated. It may be understated by a factor of 5X or more. Japan is likely seeing transmission rates similar to that experienced in peer nations, not the rates implied by the published infection counts. The cluster containment strategy has already failed. Japan is not presently materially intervening at a social level. Accordingly, Japan will face a national-scale public health crisis within a month, absent immediate and aggressive policy interventions.

 

[angrysoba]

Perhaps of interest:

https://marginalrevolution.com/marg...an-is-probably-much-worse-than-you-think.html

Well, as I mentioned before, the governor of Tokyo wants everyone to stay in and has said she expects an "explosion" of cases any time soon, because they can no longer trace the clusters.

ETA: But! While Japan is seriously undercounting its numbers of infected (as is every other country to some degree or another), it cannot be at the stage that, say, Italy is at, or even Spain, France, the UK or the US. Why not? Because there are not piles and piles of bodies yet. Remember, Japan has the oldest population in the world, and it has one of the highest rates of smoking in the rich world. We would have seen completely overrun hospitals by now if it was simply a case of ignoring all the COVID 19 cases.

Also, I couldn't click the "this is not malware" link as my computer didn't let me.

That said, I think Japan will be in lockdown in a week from now. Maybe two weeks.

 

[Cheetah]

Looks to me like you're making a declaration, for which false details would be a criminal offence.

What I assumed, but on our WhatsApp group someone asked if they could just print out the forms and fill in and the reply was that it needs to be stamped by the police.
I think someone (apart from me) is confused.

You're still a step or two ahead of us - I reckon 10-20% of Kiwis are flouting the rules.

Watching local news last night the police and army seemed distinctly eager to start enforcing the rules.
Two people, one local and the other a foreign tourist have already been arrested for breaking quarantine. The cases are being investigated under the new regulations imposed by the president, meaning they might be charged with attempted murder.

 

[Cheetah]

We have had our first two deaths. Just announced.

 

[Planigale]

Those are more like baby or partial ventilators. They really don't do the same thing.

A ventilator pushes a volume of air into the lung at a regular interval. CPAPs merely apply continuous positive air pressure to keep airways open. They are not breathing for you.

The Italian experience is CPAP therapy with oxygen is helpful. The physiology of CPAP and gas exchange is complex and I am not going to explain it. Certainly we have plans to use CPAP therapy. The usual machines used for sleep apnoea cannot easily be adapted to deliver significant amounts of oxygen. You may have seen pictures of patients in Italian hospitals with large plastic hoods on their heads, these are delivering CPAP with high oxygen levels.
https://metro.co.uk/2020/03/20/hard...ts-world-see-bad-coronavirus-really-12428694/

 

[Planigale]

Not for the first time, it is being suggested that a better policy might simply be to quarantine the most at-risk members of society and essentially allow the rest of the population to get back to work and back outside.

Any takers?



Link

This is part of the UK policy. 'Shielding'. About one and a half million people at high risk have been contacted and told to remain in their homes and not leave for 3 months and have no face to face contact. They should socially isolate from other members of the household as much as possible.
https://www.gov.uk/government/publi...ng-extremely-vulnerable-persons-from-covid-19

 

[Kings Full]

The Italian experience is CPAP therapy with oxygen is helpful. The physiology of CPAP and gas exchange is complex and I am not going to explain it. Certainly we have plans to use CPAP therapy. The usual machines used for sleep apnoea cannot easily be adapted to deliver significant amounts of oxygen. You may have seen pictures of patients in Italian hospitals with large plastic hoods on their heads, these are delivering CPAP with high oxygen levels.
https://metro.co.uk/2020/03/20/hard...ts-world-see-bad-coronavirus-really-12428694/

Interesting, thanks.

Just curious though, what is the average length of time a person stays on a ventilator or CPAP device if you had to guess? Just for Covid-19 that is...