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Cont: 2019-nCoV / Corona virus Pt 3

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Planigale said:
Oxford dons are famed for their imagination resulting in concepts such as Hobbits and Orcs, Mad Hatters and Cheshire Cats. Whereas the academics of my alma mater imagined things like gravity, the double helix and black holes. This is a possible though not a likely interpretation of the current data.
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Maybe a bit of Emily Dickinson

"Faith” is a fine invention
For Gentlemen who see!
But Microscopes are prudent
In an Emergency!
 
On the web site I go to to check numbers (the one by the kid in Seattle), the US is still 1300 cases behind Italy, and almost 2,000 behind China. However, some states haven't reported. We may still catch up by the end of the day.

That isn't significant.
 
Meridian said:
If you believe this now on the basis of the paper, you are making a mistake.
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You know, I'd hoped this thread would be dealt with in a sensible manner, given the importance of the subject and the fact that this is a science-heavy discussion.

My actual words were:

...we still can't rule out that possibility.
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Which, in your reply has gone to "If you believe this..."

Where did I say anything about belief? I think it's perfectly reasonable not to rule anything out when we're dealing with a novel virus that has so many unknowns.

Meridian said:
There is absolutely zero evidence in this direction in the paper that I can see. Nor any actual argument for this conclusion.
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That's why I stated that serological testing would be helpful in determining how many cases there have actually been.

Meridian said:
Actually, as I understand it, this `we've now reached 50% infected' hypothesis could be ruled out tomorrow or the day after. Just test 100 random people with the current PCR test. If we've really reached 50%, it was only recently, so lots of people will have active infections, and it would show up.
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Then get some random testing done. I'm sure your local health authority will be keen to spend the time on it.
 
Meadmaker said:
On the web site I go to to check numbers (the one by the kid in Seattle), the US is still 1300 cases behind Italy, and almost 2,000 behind China. However, some states haven't reported. We may still catch up by the end of the day.

That isn't significant.
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Just curious, would we be better off if we were still in second or third place?
 
Meadmaker said:
On the web site I go to to check numbers (the one by the kid in Seattle), the US is still 1300 cases behind Italy, and almost 2,000 behind China. However, some states haven't reported. We may still catch up by the end of the day.

That isn't significant.
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Already passed Italy and still counting as far as I can tell. (ETA - with Wa. and Co. still to report it will definitely be today USA hits the top of the leaderboard)

Either way, USA will be 10,000 clear above China tomorrow.

USA! USA! USA! Number one!!

And you're already of China on deaths per capita.

Isn't there anything you don't have to be first at?
 
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The Atheist said:
Already passed Italy and still counting as far as I can tell. (ETA - with Wa. and Co. still to report it will definitely be today USA hits the top of the leaderboard)

Either way, USA will be 10,000 clear above China tomorrow.

USA! USA! USA! Number one!!

And you're already of China on deaths per capita.

Isn't there anything you don't have to be first at?
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If worst comes to worst, I expect Trump apologists to say variants of "milions is just statistics". And these numbers will still be meaningless, of course.
 
Mader Levap said:
If worst comes to worst, I expect Trump apologists to say variants of "milions is just statistics". And these numbers will still be meaningless, of course.
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Yeah, you should probably just light your hair on fire and run screaming down the street.

You know you're going to do it eventually.
 
Kings Full said:
Are you always this passive aggressive?

I asked an honest question. Can't you give me an honest reply?
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I don't think anyone expects honest discussion with Trump apologists.

sir drinks-a-lot said:
I wonder if the high numbers in the US have anything whatsoever to do with any of the actions of the Democratic mayor Bill de Blasio. Nah, probably not.
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I wonder if the high numbers in the US have anything whatsoever to do with any of the actions of the Republican president Donald Trump. Nah, probably not.
 
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And, finally someone is beginning to ask the right questions:

Given that there is such remarkable variability amongst people, there really is the possibility that there will be strong genetic effects in the [human] genome, and we need to determine that absolutely as rapidly as we can.
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To me, that's the single most important question right now.

Link

Requires registration - completely trustworthy site.
 
Kings Full said:
Are you always this passive aggressive?
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No.

I asked an honest question. Can't you give me an honest reply?
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I don't think that was an honest question.

I think you understand completely whether or not we would be better off, and I also think you understand why comparisons between nations are not, in the grand scheme of things, relevant, because in the end, it's an apples and oranges comparison. Not only are there differences in absolute population, but differences in lifestyles, population density, and ability to accurately report data all play a role.

However, despite all that, people are interested, and it helps people understand the real situation. Two weeks ago, when Trump addressed the nation, people could say, "See, we have this small problem, unlike Italy. They should have kept the Chinese out like we did." Now, though, they have to say, "Well, their problem is still bigger than ours if you take into account population density."

So, I think you knew all that, but you asked a question about whether we would be better off. I don't think you actually wanted any information, either about the situation, or even about my own attitude toward it. I think you already had all the information you needed about both things.

That's why I don't think your question was honest.

On the other hand, my answer was honest, but incomplete. No. It really isn't significant in terms of direct public health outcome or well being. However, it could be psychologically significant, in laying out the case for why we really ought to be taking steps to keep the death rate down. It's exploding so fast that we have become the number one growth spot for this disease. That's something that will motivate people somehow better than talking about the statistics. Daily growth of 20% or more doesn't really mean a lot to a largely innumerate society, but more cases than any other country does.

Ironic, isn't it? The first is actually more informative than the second.
 
Meadmaker said:
No.




I don't think that was an honest question.

I think you understand completely whether or not we would be better off, and I also think you understand why comparisons between nations are not, in the grand scheme of things, relevant, because in the end, it's an apples and oranges comparison. Not only are there differences in absolute population, but differences in lifestyles, population density, and ability to accurately report data all play a role.

However, despite all that, people are interested, and it helps people understand the real situation. Two weeks ago, when Trump addressed the nation, people could say, "See, we have this small problem, unlike Italy. They should have kept the Chinese out like we did." Now, though, they have to say, "Well, their problem is still bigger than ours if you take into account population density."

So, I think you knew all that, but you asked a question about whether we would be better off. I don't think you actually wanted any information, either about the situation, or even about my own attitude toward it. I think you already had all the information you needed about both things.

That's why I don't think your question was honest.

On the other hand, my answer was honest, but incomplete. No. It really isn't significant in terms of direct public health outcome or well being. However, it could be psychologically significant, in laying out the case for why we really ought to be taking steps to keep the death rate down. It's exploding so fast that we have become the number one growth spot for this disease. That's something that will motivate people somehow better than talking about the statistics. Daily growth of 20% or more doesn't really mean a lot to a largely innumerate society, but more cases than any other country does.

Ironic, isn't it? The first is actually more informative than the second.
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Sorry to inform you but it was an honest question. You jumped to an unwarranted conclusion, and reacted.

Try again. This time without the snark... or don't. Up to you.
 
In fact, doesn't New York have a high population of people of Italian extraction?

Is there something genetically important about the Mediterranean population? Would that explain why Italy & Spain are seeing so many die, compared to Germany, which is an entirely different ethnic base?

So many damned questions!
 
Oh, and while I was typing, some new numbers came in.

We're Number One!


(That isn't significant.)
 
The Atheist said:
In fact, doesn't New York have a high population of people of Italian extraction?

Is there something genetically important about the Mediterranean population? Would that explain why Italy & Spain are seeing so many die, compared to Germany, which is an entirely different ethnic base?

So many damned questions!
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Not out of the question, but you'd have to explain the relatively low numbers coming from S. America where there is a very high hispanic population.

I'm not discounting the possibility of some genetic component, just that I'm not sure I see a correlation at this point.
 
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