2019-nCoV / Corona virus Pt 2

[sir drinks-a-lot]

I just checked that I linked the right article. I did.

Maybe you only had time for a quick read. Right after the article notes that pangolins have been proposed to be the prime suspect there is a big but and the article then goes on to discuss substantial reasons this is in fact questionable.

I never said that pangolins cannot be the source, nor does the article, but that is now far from clear. In fact the information in the article makes pangolins pretty unlikely based on the sequence.

A good summary, and thanks for digging up the article again.

 

[Giordano]

A good summary, and thanks for digging up the article again.

No problem! I’ll keep looking for the article that brought up the uncertainties of the market being the original source of patient zero. I’d like to re-read it myself.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

Is it proper to say that a virus is a microorganism?

Of course it is.

Debating if it is a life form or something else is a different discussion.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

Same thing as debating if viruses are life. Interesting primarily from a philosophical point of view.

You won't find any health care workers debating if viruses are microorganisms.

 

[pipelineaudio]

Is a prion a microorganism?

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

I don’t think any one can keep that job without periodically apologizing for, and then praising, Trump. An unfortunate part of the job.

I get that.

But I lost the last bit of faith I had in Fauci this morning when he threw all health care workers under the bus dismissing the need to treat this virus as potentially airborne in multiple situations, and when he threw the public under the bus dismissing the significance of asymptomatic spread.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

Stop calling people with knowledge other than your own stoopid. It makes you sound like the stoopid one.

Yup, a wick, that wicks particulates like viruses away from your face.

You know those paper filters in your car? They are wetted too- with oil. Perhaps an oily T shirt wouldn't dry out? Or if you want it to sound more within your bailiwick, use polyethylene glycol, or maybe aloe, or hand cream.

Stop trying to compare the efficacy of a wet filter to keep dust out with the ability of a wet filter to keep microorganisms out.

So you tell us, what is the physical difference between a surgical mask and a home depot nuisance dusk mask?

There isn't. This is a straw man. The discussion was about a wet filter vs a dry one.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

I was explaining the argument in the paper, not that I agree with it.

Also, it’s “ice floe”.

Thanks. Too late for me to edit it.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

Is a prion a microorganism?

Good question but I think the consensus would be no. Most people I know consider it a protein that causes abnormal folding of other proteins in a chain reaction.

Whereas a virus contains RNA or DNA. Just because viruses hijack other cells' mechanisms to reproduce might be an argument about is it or is it not alive, it is not an argument about whether it is a microorganism or not.

Other people may have different opinions about prions. But if you think about it, we don't call toxins organisms even if they result in a cascade of actions.

It is considered an infectious agent.

 

[sir drinks-a-lot]

Is it proper to say that a virus is a microorganism?

Is a prion a microorganism?

No, neither viruses nor prions seem to be generally classified as microorganisms:

The term microorganisms does not include viruses and prions, which are generally classified as non-living.

Viruses are generally regarded as not living and therefore not considered as microorganisms, although a subfield of microbiology is virology, the study of viruses.

Sources: here and here

 

[Planigale]

While that might have been proposed, I saw a news story that it was quickly abandoned.

Got any evidence it is being applied and what the results actually are?

No what was abandoned is 'flattening the curve'; mini epidemics are now in.
The paper I keep referencing.
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/im...-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf
Or the UK government repository
https://www.gov.uk/government/group...mergencies-sage-coronavirus-covid-19-response

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/explainers-51632801

 

[sir drinks-a-lot]

I was also able to find references that do consider viruses to be microorganisms:

https://courses.lumenlearning.com/microbiology/chapter/types-of-microorganisms/
https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/agricultural-and-biological-sciences/microorganisms

It seems to be the same question as asking whether or not they are alive.

 

[GraculusTheGreenBird]

But for the delay in China, it was a couple weeks at most and shortly thereafter they published free access to the genome online.

Compare that to SARS which smoldered in Guangdong for months before the Chinese government acted.

Yes, some local officials screwed up big time. Saving face is ingrained in their culture. But they learned from SARS and they are getting a bad rap for not being perfect in an imperfect world. This virus moved with lightening speed and acting a couple weeks sooner is unlikely to have had an impact. In no way could any government have contained it at the beginning.

This is false. The Chinese authorities covered it up not for a "couple of weeks", but for 6 weeks at least, from the start in early December to when they finally admitted the situation at the end of January. They did this not through incompetence, but knowingly and deliberately.

And it was not just local officials. Xi knew all about this on 5th January, by his own admission.

 

[GraculusTheGreenBird]

No what was abandoned is 'flattening the curve'; mini epidemics are now in.
The paper I keep referencing.
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/im...-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf
Or the UK government repository
https://www.gov.uk/government/group...mergencies-sage-coronavirus-covid-19-response

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/explainers-51632801

That Imperial College PDF is a comprehensive read, well worth it to fully understand the UK's science based approach, and how it changed quickly as more research was done.

Much as I dislike Boris, from the start UKGov has said they are basing their response on the current scientific advice, and as that has evolved they have changed response accordingly.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

No what was abandoned is 'flattening the curve'; mini epidemics are now in.
The paper I keep referencing.
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/im...-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf
Or the UK government repository
https://www.gov.uk/government/group...mergencies-sage-coronavirus-covid-19-response

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/explainers-51632801

From your last link:

But modelling from Imperial College London prompted a change in approach.

It warned the policy of a managed spread could lead to more than 250,000 deaths, with hospital intensive care units getting overwhelmed.

Ministers are now seeking to suppress the spread completely.
They hope this will keep deaths below 20,000.

 

[Planigale]

From your last link:

Yes, this is the first step. If you read the Imperial paper you would understand the context. You are just taking one comment out of context.

This wave has to be suppressed, but then when you stop isolating the epidemic will recur, so you watch for its rise, then reintroduce social isolation before it can rise to a point at which it would overwhelm the health service, then when it drops again social isolation is dropped. Another mini epidemic occurs, then is suppressed. This will probably continue for 18 months or until a vaccine becomes available, at which point herd immunity stops significant outbreaks. The model suggests 2/3 time with social isolation 1/3 out of social isolation. The criteria for lifting and restoring social isolation are given.

 

[The Atheist]

Italy had almost 6000 new cases and 627 deaths yesterday.

I wonder when it's going to start to flatten due to the isolation.

I've been wondering that myself. Not happening yet, and if it doesn't in the next day or two, then we have a serious problem.

International expansion of a novel SARS-CoV-2 mutant

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/medrxiv/early/2020/03/17/2020.03.15.20035204.full.pdf

This is a bit scary. Possible increased Ro and possibly virulence for the main strain in Europe?

Ouch! That's not scary as much as terrifying.

It's also an excellent reason for keeping the lid on the sucker to the maximum amount possible. As I've said many times - the more infections, the greater the chance of mutation and at the rate this sucker's going it could be Captain Trips if we don't crush it shortly.

 

[Cheetah]

Next article by Tomas Pueyo


Coronavirus: The Hammer and the Dance

Strong coronavirus measures today should only last a few weeks, there shouldn’t be a big peak of infections afterwards, and it can all be done for a reasonable cost to society, saving millions of lives along the way. If we don’t take these measures, tens of millions will be infected, many will die, along with anybody else that requires intensive care, because the healthcare system will have collapsed.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

This is false. The Chinese authorities covered it up not for a "couple of weeks", but for 6 weeks at least, from the start in early December to when they finally admitted the situation at the end of January. They did this not through incompetence, but knowingly and deliberately.

And it was not just local officials. Xi knew all about this on 5th January, by his own admission.

CNN: Washington Post: US intelligence warned Trump in January and February as he dismissed coronavirus threat

Within the administration, Trump's aides tried in vain to convince him of the virus's seriousness, according to the Post. Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar was unable to discuss the virus with Trump until January 18, two senior administration officials told the Post -- at which point the President interrupted him to ask when sales of flavored vaping products would resume, senior administration officials told the paper.

Later in January, aides met with then-acting White House chief of staff Mick Mulvaney in an effort to convince higher level officials to monitor the virus -- with White House Domestic Policy Council Director Joe Grogan asserting that if the White House did not seriously address the virus, an issue likely to be front and center for months, Trump could risk losing his reelection, people briefed on the meeting told the Post.

Mulvaney subsequently held regular meetings, though officials told the paper that Trump did not take the virus seriously because he did not think it had circulated extensively in the United States.

When the US recognized the 2009 H1N1 virus we had an extensive influenza monitoring system in place.

You're acting like 6 weeks is some kind of international crime. I told you, there were local officials who didn't want to face reality. But China's national government did act quickly once they recognized what was going on. And I'm pretty sure those local officials who tried to cover the problem up were disciplined.

Whatever actions China took, incompetrump dropped the ball anyway. Talk about a coverup. What do you think of the POTUS dismissing the threat despite multiple people in his administration trying to warn him?

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

Yes, this is the first step. If you read the Imperial paper you would understand the context. You are just taking one comment out of context.
This wave has to be suppressed, but then when you stop isolating the epidemic will recur, so you watch for its rise, then reintroduce social isolation before it can rise to a point at which it would overwhelm the health service, then when it drops again social isolation is dropped. Another mini epidemic occurs, then is suppressed. This will probably continue for 18 months or until a vaccine becomes available, at which point herd immunity stops significant outbreaks. The model suggests 2/3 time with social isolation 1/3 out of social isolation. The criteria for lifting and restoring social isolation are given.

No, I'm not taking it out of context. You are talking about a theory as if it has been adopted. But it hasn't. You suppress the wave then stop isolating, great, where's the evidence this is being done, has been done, is in the plan to do?

I don't see it.