2019-nCoV / Corona virus Pt 2

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Belz... said:
Thing is, we can't maintain this sort of lockdown for long if we don't want the economy to collapse entirely, so obviously we'll step out of the shell soon enough, and covid-19 will just continue where it left off. It gives us time to prepare to deal with it but we'll have to deal with it sooner or later.
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I'm going with treatment and a vaccine for the end in my future simulation.
 
Meanwhile...

I've been a little quiet, because we're all been sent home, to work from home, "until further notice".

Fortunately my kind of work is amenable to this kind of thing...

Australia is currently showing 791 cases, 7 deaths and 26 recovered.

I'm expecting case numbers to go up, because we're having a mass return of Australians (and their close relatives) from abroad at the moment.

Closures etc. are continuing to increase.
 
Kings Full said:
Are you not aware that we did the very same thing earlier this week?
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You mean we are allowed to use the industrial N95s we've always been using?

More gaslighting by incompetrump, pretending there's a solution there really isn't.

First masks we bought for TB protection came from industrial suppliers because the medical suppliers weren't geared up yet. In the US there never was any sort of barrier to using industrial masks in medical settings, ever!
 
angrysoba said:
Hmmm... one question that the paper raised is the question of what happens if delaying the peak leads to the healthcare system straining for a prolonged period of time instead of a short massive peak? In that situation, death tolls could conceivably be higher as those needing emergency services months down the line for heart attacks, strokes or car accidents (or winter illnesses) may not receive treatment from overstretched healthcare services.
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Your logic is a fail, sorry. If you crash the health care system it will take a long time for it to recover.

angrysoba said:
It’s not simply “are these people worth the money?” It’s whether or not we really have the most beneficial response.

I can’t say what that is, but it is would be a mischaracterization or the article to assume it is arguing that some people’s lives are not valuable.
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So are you suggesting we send the old and infirm off on a ice flow and forget about it? :boggled:
 
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angrysoba said:
This thread needs some good news...

https://english.kyodonews.net/news/...d-to-spread-virus-dies-at-japan-hospital.html
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Rarely has someone's death given me such pleasure.

novaphile said:
Australia is currently showing 791 cases, 7 deaths and 26 recovered.

I'm expecting case numbers to go up, because we're having a mass return of Australians (and their close relatives) from abroad at the moment.
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That's less of an issue than the sustained community transmission that's clearly happening.

Italy's rate of increase hasn't even started dropping yet, despite a shutdown of virtually everything. It's not easy to get on top of this little sucker.
 
Ron Swanson said:
My take is (and I read a lot) the primary means of transmission is direct contact with an infectious person.

But for those who do not know, all the above is applicable.

Corona is much easier to catch than the flu. (like almost 3 times)
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Add to that, the contagious person very likely may not have symptoms yet.
 
JeanTate said:
(continued)

An astronomer's perspective on disasters, or death from the skies (hat-tip to Phil Plait).

Some are both unpredictable, on an hours to ~decades timescale, and unavoidable, e.g. GRBs (gamma-ray bursts), supernovae.

Some are predictable, on a weeks to ~years timescale, but potentially avoidable, e.g. an asteroid or comet collision.

Some are in between, e.g. extreme solar flares and CMEs (coronal mass ejections).

What's key about "avoidable" is preparation. Or, if you prefer, insurance.

For example, even a large, new comet (one making its first pass through the inner solar system in ~1+ million years) need not wipe out London let alone do the dinosaur thing for all animals if we can see it coming in time and have prepared methods to deflect it. But if no one is scanning the skies any more, or if a few $million has not been spent studying deflection techniques ...

Similarly, a few $millions (times 10 to 100?) spent now, researching how to harden communications satellites and "the grid", etc - and implementing and practicing - would greatly reduce the impact of even a series of extreme solar flares.

The Covid-19 pandemic is, from my POV, a textbook example of multiple failures to act on what are well-established scientific certainties. From the multiple failures of the Chinese PTBs well before December 2019, to the Trump administration's well-documented disdain for heeding the advice of experts.

Several of you who've posted in this thread have wondered why there's such a panic, including (or especially) the tanking of the stock market. You won't find the answers you seek in the science of epidemiology, but rather one or other of the behavioral sciences. And those answers have, I think, little to do with whether it's Trump/Xi über alles or Xi/Trump the devil incarnate.

(to be continued)
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Absolutely re the failure to be prepared for what we knew was a 'when' not an 'if'.

But for the delay in China, it was a couple weeks at most and shortly thereafter they published free access to the genome online.

Compare that to SARS which smoldered in Guangdong for months before the Chinese government acted.

Yes, some local officials screwed up big time. Saving face is ingrained in their culture. But they learned from SARS and they are getting a bad rap for not being perfect in an imperfect world. This virus moved with lightening speed and acting a couple weeks sooner is unlikely to have had an impact. In no way could any government have contained it at the beginning.

The US with all its incompetencies would not have recognized, let alone contained it either.
 
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JeanTate said:
(continued)

I'd like to thank many of my fellow ISF members who've posted in this thread, too many to name individually. You have truly put the "E" in JREF. I came here to see if I could better understand this whole Covid-19 thing, before it was even called that. Sometimes I found answers from my own DDGing (I use DuckDuckGo), but mostly from posts in this thread (including the links!).

I wish you all the very best. And sincerely hope you will not lose anyone near and dear to you to Covid-19 in the coming many months.

(will not be continued)
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Enjoy your break from the forum, take the time you need. But please come back eventually. You are also one of the top contributors to the truth here as well.
 
Returned to China yesterday (actually the day before, but it took me 27 hours from my flight landing to getting to my apartment, so it feels like that was all "yesterday").

I was tested for the virus, and after that turned up negative was allowed to go home. Now I'm doing 14 day quarantine, but at least that's from my own apartment. Not allowed out, but it's nice to be home. :)
 
Ron Swanson said:
My take is (and I read a lot) the primary means of transmission is direct contact with an infectious person.
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I'm not sure what your definition of "direct contact" is. Doesn't the virus have to leave the infected person through sneezing, coughing, or something along those lines and enter the next person through their mouth, nose, or eyes?
 
casebro said:
Speaking of which, insufficient filters get much better if saturated. Spray booths is filters similar to home furnace filters with sprinklers similar to those on lawns. And some hot-damn filters use water curtains. I don't know how to implement on a face, except to keep the coffee filter wet with a spray bottle?
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Come on Casebro, stop posting unsupportable crap. Wet face masks act like a wick.
 
TellyKNeasuss said:
On the other hand, smoking is far more pervasive in China and the level of air pollution is generally higher, which might compensate for the higher age of the US population.
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Smoking isn't all that common here in WA. And not everyone is a regular pot user.
 
Ron Swanson said:
Good one ... long story short my bother and I were gutting an old lath and plaster area of house.

We had forgotten filter masks and used very tamp term cloth towels the owner gave us ...

We were surprised to find they worked better than filter masks for that type of dust, I've used that method many times since
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Not applicable to microorganisms that move easily through liquids.
 
Planigale said:
The problem is those are not mutually exclusive options. You can both suppress the spread, and let it run its course. This is the current UK end game. You suppress the spread so it does not overwhelm the health care system, but let it run its course in a series of mini epidemics until the herd immunity builds up.
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While that might have been proposed, I saw a news story that it was quickly abandoned.

Got any evidence it is being applied and what the results actually are?
 
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calebprime said:
Incubation period 2-14 days officially. Outliers, perhaps, longer.

I'm still betting that Trump, Pence, and Fauci etc. are all infected. Too bad about Fauci if that's true.
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Or maybe they soon will be as it circulates around the WH. They do not practice the social distancing or self quarantine they prescribe for the rest of us.

I'm waiting for the first legislator to need a ventilator.
 
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