2019-nCoV / Corona virus Pt 2

[Giordano]

And they are not quite thinking through what Edngame C would do a society. Like the total destruction of the economy. More people would probably die in the resulting upheavel then the Corona Virus could hope to kill.

Again, did the 1918 fly pandemic lead to the total destruction of the economy? The end of society? Would letting the virus run its course not be at least an equal blow to the economy?

It strikes me that reducing the spread of the virus and number of the associated deaths is the important thing.

 

[Giordano]

For those still debating whether we should let the virus run its course or try to suppress it: would you rather be in South Korea right now or Italy? Which economy seems likely to recover first?

Finally if you still vote for running its course, are you willing to personally take the hit so as to spare the economy as you see it? Or offer a relative or friend’s life?

 

[Planigale]

For those still debating whether we should let the virus run its course or try to suppress it: would you rather be in South Korea right now or Italy? Which economy seems likely to recover first?

Finally if you still vote for running its course, are you willing to personally take the hit so as to spare the economy as you see it? Or offer a relative or friend’s life?

The problem is those are not mutually exclusive options. You can both suppress the spread, and let it run its course. This is the current UK end game. You suppress the spread so it does not overwhelm the health care system, but let it run its course in a series of mini epidemics until the herd immunity builds up.

 

[jeremyp]

For those still debating whether we should let the virus run its course or try to suppress it: would you rather be in South Korea right now or Italy? Which economy seems likely to recover first?

South Korea seems to have got things under control, at least for the moment. Italy still has an increasing rate of new cases even though it's been on total lockdown for almost two weeks. There's no doubt its economy is totally ****** and the lockdown measures don't seem to have been as effective as people had hoped.

There's a problem with this argument in that both sides seem to be treating this as a false dichotomy. The choices are portrayed as extreme measures to stop the virus and throwing the economy away or do nothing about the virus at all and hope the deaths don't damage the economy too much.

I think there's probably a way to balance things but I won't pretend I know what the balance is.

Finally if you still vote for running its course, are you willing to personally take the hit so as to spare the economy as you see it? Or offer a relative or friend’s life?

I think that is a straw man argument. I don't think anybody is proposing we just let the disease run its course (well, a few politicians have said that and then walked back their statements and maybe one or two forum members). The question is at what point do the restrictions do more harm than good.

 

[Darat]

Again, did the 1918 fly pandemic lead to the total destruction of the economy? The end of society? Would letting the virus run its course not be at least an equal blow to the economy?

It strikes me that reducing the spread of the virus and number of the associated deaths is the important thing.

Again totally incomparable in terms of the different economies.

 

[pipelineaudio]

Were still out of thermometers with none coming anytime soon. Are these types at all accurate? "temple touch"

https://www.walgreens.com/store/c/walgreens-mini-temple-digital-thermometer/ID=prod6326718-product

 

[Trebuchet]

Again, did the 1918 fly pandemic lead to the total destruction of the economy? The end of society? Would letting the virus run its course not be at least an equal blow to the economy?

It strikes me that reducing the spread of the virus and number of the associated deaths is the important thing.

I am just SO glad you didn't insert "Spanish" before "fly pandemic". And yeah, reducing the spread and the deaths will likely be the lesser blow to the economy, relative to millions of deaths.

 

[TellyKNeasuss]

For those still debating whether we should let the virus run its course or try to suppress it: would you rather be in South Korea right now or Italy? Which economy seems likely to recover first?

IF official statistics can be believed and are accurate, Iran would be a better choice than Italy (or France or Germany).

 

[a_unique_person]

Are they aware that "coronavirus is gone" is probably never?

It can't survive long outside the human body. If infections cease then I guess it is gone. Smallpox is gone, for example. In a year we will have an effective vaccine.

 

[marting]

South Korea seems to have got things under control, at least for the moment. Italy still has an increasing rate of new cases even though it's been on total lockdown for almost two weeks. There's no doubt its economy is totally ****** and the lockdown measures don't seem to have been as effective as people had hoped.

There's a problem with this argument in that both sides seem to be treating this as a false dichotomy. The choices are portrayed as extreme measures to stop the virus and throwing the economy away or do nothing about the virus at all and hope the deaths don't damage the economy too much.

It takes a while for the lock down measures to take effect. Deaths lag initial infection by 3 weeks or so and infection tests aren't normally done until a few days after symptoms appear which is also delayed by 6 days or so. We have a very good model in Wuhan to use to see the impact of social distancing where the Chinese pretty much halted new infections by getting Ro down to 0.3. But for a month after lockdown infections and deaths kept going up.

Getting Ro below 1 is all that's necessary to slow the disease and the further it is below 1 the more rapidly the disease rates decrease. After a month, new infections in Wuhan were about 1/100th what they were even though it takes a while for those infected to ripple through. Once it is down sufficiently you can relax the lockdown and keep partial restrictions in effect to keep Ro below 1 generally. Then look for clusters and address local lockdowns as needed. That's what China is starting to do as they re-open businesses.

The sooner this is done, as in S. Korea, the less economic damage is done. Every week delayed causes an exponential increase in the economic cost in addition to the deaths.

What happened in China should have kickstarted things in every country but it didn't. Many Western countries are finally waking up to the urgency of early action. It should have been done a month ago and would have produced far, far, less economic damage. Kudos to S. Korea for learning from China, recognizing the problem and addressing it rapidly.

 

[pipelineaudio]

How is worldmeters only showing 64 serious or critical for the USA when they are showing New york hospitals overwhelmed?

 

[Marcus]

(continued)

I'd like to thank many of my fellow ISF members who've posted in this thread, too many to name individually. You have truly put the "E" in JREF. I came here to see if I could better understand this whole Covid-19 thing, before it was even called that. Sometimes I found answers from my own DDGing (I use DuckDuckGo), but mostly from posts in this thread (including the links!).

I wish you all the very best. And sincerely hope you will not lose anyone near and dear to you to Covid-19 in the coming many months.

(will not be continued)

Sorry to see you go, I hope you will reconsider the leaving part, it's never too late.

 

[Marcus]

For those still debating whether we should let the virus run its course or try to suppress it: would you rather be in South Korea right now or Italy? Which economy seems likely to recover first?

Finally if you still vote for running its course, are you willing to personally take the hit so as to spare the economy as you see it? Or offer a relative or friend’s life?

It's not an all or nothing proposition. Flatten the curve, but not too much. If we keep everyone on lockdown for too long, the cure will be worse than the disease.

 

[dudalb]

Breaking news: memboer of Pence's staff tested positive.

 

[calebprime]

Breaking news: memboer of Pence's staff tested positive.

Incubation period 2-14 days officially. Outliers, perhaps, longer.

I'm still betting that Trump, Pence, and Fauci etc. are all infected. Too bad about Fauci if that's true.

 

[William Parcher]

It can't survive long outside the human body. If infections cease then I guess it is gone. Smallpox is gone, for example. In a year we will have an effective vaccine.

This virus came from a so far unknown animal species. There is educated speculation but no certainty of where it came from. That means it can re-enter the human population from the wild at any time.

 

[sir drinks-a-lot]

I'm still betting that Trump, Pence, and Fauci etc. are all infected. Too bad about Fauci if that's true.

Political forum is that way. >>>

 

[calebprime]

Political forum is that way. >>>

nah. I just think they're infected. very contagious. we need Fauci. I don't need to say more.

 

[Kings Full]

I'm still betting that Trump, Pence, and Fauci etc. are all infected. Too bad about Fauci if that's true.

Funny, you don't seem worried about Pelosi and Schumer, I hope they're ok as well as Fauci.

Jus' Sayin'

 

[Giordano]

This virus came from a so far unknown animal species. There is educated speculation but no certainty of where it came from. That means it can re-enter the human population from the wild at any time.

Absolutely but so far it looks like a product of a recombination that is likely to have been a rare event. Required co-infection of one individual with two different viruses at one time, then exposure of a larger human population to the recombinant. The original animal with the recombinant is long gone. Virus may therefore not be established in original animal population (eg bats). Or may not even replicate well any more in original animal host. Even if there is a non-human reservoir it may be like Ebola: outbreaks in specific geographic areas that an be tracked and knocked out. Not global epidemics if people stay alert.