2019-nCoV / Corona virus Pt 2

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[table=head]{colsp=4}Italy COVID-19 total deaths : doubling days
Target|Actual|Date|Days
3|3|02-23| -
6+|7|02-24|1
12+|12|02-26|2
24+|29|02-29|3
48+|52|03-02|2
100+|107|03-04|2
200+|233|03-07|3
400+|463|03-09|2
800+|827|03-11|2
1600+|1809|03-15|4
3200+|3405|03-19|4
6400+
[/table]

[table=head]{colsp=4}Spain COVID-19 total deaths : doubling days
Target|Actual|Date|Days
2|2|03-04| -
4+|8|03-06|2
8+|8|03-06|0
16+|17|03-08|2
32+|36|03-10|2
64+|84|03-12|2
128+|133|03-13|1
256+|289|03-15|2
500+|533|03-17|2
1000+|1002|03-20|3
2000+
[/table]

[table=head]{colsp=4}France COVID-19 total deaths : doubling days
Target|Actual|Date|Days
3+|3|03-02| -
6+|7|03-05|3
12+|16|03-07|2
24+|30|03-09|2
48+|48|03-11|2
100+|127|03-15|4
200+|264|03-18|3
400+
[/table]

[table=head]{colsp=4}USA COVID-19 total deaths : doubling days
Target|Actual|Date|Days
15|15|03-06| -
30+|30|03-10|4
60+|60|03-15|5
120+|124|03-18|3
240+
[/table]

[table=head]{colsp=4}UK COVID-19 total deaths : doubling days
Target|Actual|Date|Days
3|3|03-08| -
6+|6|03-10|2
12+|21|03-14|4
24+|35|03-15|1
48+|53|03-16|1
100+|104|03-18|2
200+|
[/table]

[table=head]{colsp=4}Germany COVID-19 total deaths : doubling days
Target|Actual|Date|Days
3|3|03-12| -
6+|8|03-13|1
12+|13|03-16|3
24+|24|03-17|1
48+

[/table]

I chose the starting numbers 2, 3, 15, to reflect the relative population sizes of the different countries. Not that it makes much difference as it's the number of days for each successive doubling that matters. Hopefully, as countries improve their efforts to contain the spread, the 'doubling days' numbers will begin to increase. Even if countries are unsuccessful at containment there will eventually be a slowing - it's the nature of pandemics to follow a logistic curve rather than an exponential one, because, sooner or later the virus begins to run out of fresh victims to infect.

Please feel free to append to the tables as the numbers grow, or perhaps to start a table for your own country if I've not covered it.

Some people may object to the 'Target' wording - I'm open to suggestions for a better word.
 
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It's not really a prediction though - it's just double the previous number (sometimes rounded slightly to avoid too many significant digits). It's the number of deaths when the next row will be added to the table. I thought about 'Next' but that's perhaps more confusing though less macabre.
 
alfaniner said:
Projection?
Click to expand...

Yes, that's a good word.

[table=head]{colsp=4}Iran COVID-19 total deaths : doubling days
Projection|Actual|Date|Days
3|3|02-21| -
6+|6|02-22|1
12+|12|02-24|2
24+|26|02-27|3
48+|54|03-01|3
100+|108|03-05|4
200+|237|03-09|4
400+|429|03-12|3
800+|853|03-16|4
1600+
[/table]

Interesting that, on official figures, Iran doesn't seem to be doing much different to countries attempting more extreme social distancing measures.
 
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ceptimus said:
Yes, that's a good word.

[table=head]{colsp=4}Iran COVID-19 total deaths : doubling days
Projection|Actual|Date|Days
3|3|02-21| -
6+|6|02-22|1
12+|12|02-24|2
24+|26|02-27|3
48+|54|03-01|3
100+|108|03-05|4
200+|237|03-09|4
400+|429|03-12|3
800+|853|03-16|4
1600+
[/table]

Interesting that, on official figures, Iran doesn't seem to be doing much different to countries attempting more extreme social distancing measures.
Click to expand...

In interview with MSNBC today an Iranian doctor said the numbers are much higher, but they aren't registered as Covid-19 deaths because they don't have testing kits.
 
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Governor Cuomo has stepped up the restrictions for the population by 25% each of the last few days for New York. Now it's at 100% required to stay at home for all but emergency or essential reasons. The edict says "These legal provisions will be enforced." Fines and business closures for violators.
 
alfaniner said:
Governor Cuomo has stepped up the restrictions for the population by 25% each of the last few days for New York. Now it's at 100% required to stay at home for all but emergency or essential reasons. The edict says "These legal provisions will be enforced." Fines and business closures for violators.
Click to expand...

What a speech he is giving right now. Wow.
 
Belz... said:
It's your job to provide a transcript, now.
Click to expand...

Just a wonderfully direct, open and honest assessment of what is happening. Talking directly to youths, saying that they are not invincible. Talking to families that miss mom, telling them not to go see her. Telling businesses that ignore his edict are subject to closure. Also, he pulled a buck stops here moment. /paraphrase "Some have said 'We don't need to do this'. Some have tried to distance themselves from this. Make no mistake if anyone is responsible or is in need of someone to blame, it is me. I alone made this decision because it my job to keep all people in this state safe "/paraphrase
 
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