2019-nCoV / Corona virus Pt 2

[Ron Swanson]

Based on what? You're political opinion? Based on what you've read on the websites that you agree with? What are the parameters you use to separate 'the virus' from 'governments handling it'?

My point is, simply put, you can disagree with a governments decision without turning the thread into a political manifesto.

Bravo ... I think intelligent people can discuss almost anything, without turning the thread into a political manifesto.

 

[marting]

Diamond Princess crew members, especially those in the food service, were the primary vectors. Suggests that cabin ventilation amongst passengers was not a significant vector.

There was also strong correlation between workers that shared a berth.

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6911e2.htm?s_cid=mm6911e2_x

CT scans from the DP with symptomatic and asymptomatic people.
https://pubs.rsna.org/doi/10.1148/ryct.2020200110

 

[eeyore1954]

I'm willing to bet you have a false memory. The first vaccine was available in 1963 BTW.

Search images for "measles quarantine sign".

Wouldn't be the first time. But

Measles parties were popular in the 1950s and 1960s before the MMR vaccine program was introduced for measles, mumps and rubella. The practice of measles parties is based on the belief that infected children will build up immunity to the virus because once someone has the measles they cannot catch it again.

or this from Huffington Post

According to a 1960 article in the Los Angeles Times entitled “‘Measles Parties’ Put Spots on Tots,” this was a growing trend in Canada, where parents wanted their children to come down with the disease before adulthood.

I think my memory is more likely wrong on Polio. I remember waiting in a long line to get the oral vaccine probably was 1961-62. I remember my aunt was very relieved that I would be able to be vaccinated. I think I would have been too young to remember her fear. I didn't get the measles until I was a teenager and I did not detect any fear from my parents except about losing my vision?

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

We lived in the married grad student ghetto at Syracuse University while my dad was getting his degree in Geography. (1955-1960) The place was, quite literally, overrun with little kids, six and seven year olds were the senior citizens of the pack. (And rare. We moved out while I was still five.)

Pox parties of every variety were common. Almost mandatory. I suspect they were another excuse for bored housewives to get together.

I got my encounters with chicken pox, mumps, and measles over with via such get-togethers. FSM only knows what else. If it was contagious they probably had parties for it.

Pox parties yes. I find it hard to believe people in that era didn't recognize measles was dangerous. Again search images for 'measles quarantine signs'.

I'm still going with false memories.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

You can use IgM antibodies which indicate an acute infection. These decline and the IgG response kicks in and lasts for many years even lifelong. This is used for acute Zika infection where the viraemic window is very short and PCR tests would be negative.

Are you suggesting they already have tests for IgG and IgM antibodies?

And there are a number of infections we do acute and convalescing titers for. I'd have to review what the reason is for that.

You can also look for IgM and IgG antibodies. IgM occurs early and rapidly declines, whilst IgG develops later and persists. The ratio of the two can help separate recent from more distant infections. We can safely assume that no one has had a SARS CoV 2 infection before November 2019.

Same answer.

 

[marting]

I remember measles parties in the 60s.
Measles wasn’t frightening to me (of course I was a kid). I don’t recall people being afraid of it. I do remember people being afraid of polio.

Same here. People wanted their kids to get measles when it was going around before they were adults. I got both measles and mumps back in the 50's. Efforts were made to keep any adults that hadn't had measles away.

 

[Capsid]

Are you suggesting they already have tests for IgG and IgM antibodies?

And there are a number of infections we do acute and convalescing titers for. I'd have to review what the reason is for that.



Same answer.

Not for SARS-COV-2 as the PCR test on swabs is adequate.


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[Doghouse Reilly]

I came up with this info to help explain, I did a fair amount of research.

Why do the experts / more informed here think ...
Am I fairly accurate?

..........................

Why is Covid-19 nothing like the flu?
Why are experts so worried?

Number one is the R-0̷
Number two is the Death rate.

The flu spreads at a R-0̷ of R 0.8 to 1.2
Covid-19 has an R-0̷ of 2.8 to 3.2

The death rate for flu is under 0.1%
The death rate for Covid-19 is 3.5%

Do some math .... Covid-19 spreads

... 3 Times as FAST and kills
... 35 Times more people

The death rate is not 3 5%, nobody is saying that anymore.

 

[Ulf Nereng]

The death rate is not 3 5%, nobody is saying that anymore.

True, but even if it is as low as one tenth of that we get 3 times faster and 3.5 times as deadly. Put those two together and you get 10 times as dangerous. 0.35% is lower than most conservative estimates, though. What the death rate is when the health care system is overrun is unknown. For now...

 

[Doghouse Reilly]

Right now the death rate in Germany is less than 0.25%.

 

[Doghouse Reilly]

This seems extremely promising:

The treated group was given 600 mg of Plaquenil each day.

The researchers found that 50 percent of the treated group turned from positive to negative for the virus by the third day — and by day six, that figure was up to 70 percent.

Of the 20 test patients, six who were treated with both Plaquenil and the antibiotic azithromycin showed impressive results — with five testing negative at day three. All six of them tested negative at day six.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/nypost...oroquine-may-help-cure-coronavirus-study/amp/

 

[Andy_Ross]

The panic buying has gone too far.
No toilet roll
No tinned food
No cleaning products
No bread
No 'lady' products
No pasta
No rice
Worst of all ...

No bloody beer!

Why are they hoarding bloody beer?

Plenty of bottled beer in our supermarkets. It seems to be tinned lager they are panic buying. Plenty of Iron Maiden Trooper and Marstons Pedigree
They haven't taken the tinned Fosters or Budweiser for some reason.

 

[Belz...]

Right now the death rate in Germany is less than 0.25%.

Source?

 

[The Atheist]

You can use IgM antibodies which indicate an acute infection.

Thanks for chipping in when you can!

Of course the problem is you don't know who is going to die ahead of time so you have to expensively treat a lot of people before you find the ones who die.

Yep, and you catch the vast majority of cases, including the very mild and asymptomatic cases.

... 3 Times as FAST and kills
... 35 Times more people

If you were comparing 3.5 and 0.1 it would be 350, but as noted, the death rate will be nowhere near 3.5%. Using the wisdom of the crowd, I get 0.8%, which still makes it eight times deadlier than 'flu, plus nobody's immune or vaccinated with this sucker, so many times more cases as well.

Right now the death rate in Germany is less than 0.25%.

Here's one for you I thought of earlier - look at the difference in death rates between northern Europe, where euthanasia is common and legal, and Italy & Spain, where it isn't.

Is the disease mostly killing the really sick, who in saner countries, have already pulled the plug?

This seems extremely promising:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/nypost...oroquine-may-help-cure-coronavirus-study/amp/

I've mentioned that one many times, but there is a hitch - one of the less talked-about side effects is immediate cardiac arrest. I only found that yesterday myself, so I'd certainly be very wary.

I'll be sticking with Avigan at this stage.

Plenty of bottled beer in our supermarkets. It seems to be tinned lager they are panic buying. Plenty of Iron Maiden Trooper and Marstons Pedigree
They haven't taken the tinned Fosters or Budweiser for some reason.

They still sell Foster's?

I thought people only ever drank that to look Australian, not knowing that it actually guarantees you're not an Australian.

 

[pipelineaudio]

A number of the models published include different graphs and models for differing R₀. The main intent is to cut the R₀. Examples are
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/medrxiv/early/2020/02/14/2020.02.12.20022566.full.pdf
which models the impact of changing R₀ with season.
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/im...-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf
models the impact of mitigation and social isolation on R₀.

I mean like thes online graph making tools. I just dont know how to enter the equations that would show for instance various rates of change and various exponents to simulate R0. A site like this https://livegap.com/charts/app.php?lan=en

 

[Planigale]

Are you suggesting they already have tests for IgG and IgM antibodies?

And there are a number of infections we do acute and convalescing titers for. I'd have to review what the reason is for that.



Same answer.

Not commercially yet, but they are certainly being measured. Not difficult to do, the most difficult bit is that you have to culture SARS CoV 2 which you obviously need to careful about, but they grow in normal cell cultures lines.

 

[Capsid]

Not commercially yet, but they are certainly being measured. Not difficult to do, the most difficult bit is that you have to culture SARS CoV 2 which you obviously need to careful about, but they grow in normal cell cultures lines.

There are commercially available recombinant spike proteins for ELISA. Plus you can use Pseudotyped virus instead of the real thing to avoid having to culture the virus in high containment labs in neutralisation assays.


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[Sherkeu]

The costs of people being allowed to die and overwhelm hospitals for a few months would cost 1/10th of the savings to be made from removing the chronically ill. You wouldn't even need to consider the $10-20 trillion the current effects are costing.

The cost benefit to letting people die is genuinely astronomical. You'd be looking at a short-term cost of a couple of hundred billion worldwide by allowing the virus to go wild. I'd say what we're doing will cost 100 times more.

And it's yet to be proven the epidemic can be stopped, so we may end up losing twice.

I think this type of projection leaves out a piece. Living and dying are not the only two outcomes. It seems reasonable to assume many patients who recover will be left with permanent damage. I think it's also reasonable to say that this number will be much higher than the eventual number of deaths.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

Not for SARS-COV-2 as the PCR test on swabs is adequate.


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What I was trying to say is, yes, I know all about IgM, it wasn't relevant to what I posted.

 

[Doghouse Reilly]

Source?

The number of reported cases is ~12,000 right now, and the number of reported deaths is 28. Obviously the numbers can change, but it is a possible indication that the dire happenings in Italy aren't inevitable everywhere.