2019-nCoV / Corona virus Pt 2

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Fast Eddie B said:
I’m nervously awaiting the first reports of widespread looting.

I was a police officer in S FL and remember riots and looting over jury verdicts against white and Hispanic officers. Hunger is a powerful driving force, and I’d expect groceries and big box stores to be the first targets, with gun shops close behind.

I hope there are contingency plans to deal with it as humanely as possible.
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I am more concerned about some idiots with guns becoming a vigilante quarantine force.
 
Darat said:
Problem is the world is no longer the world of the early 20th century. ...
I agree that it isn't apocalyptic but comparison with over a century ago is not useful in knowing how to cope with this today.
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WWI troop movement helped spread the 1918 flu. We are seeing such rapid spread around the world because international travel is so ubiquitous.

That doesn't make it worse (or better) than 1918. It does probably make it spread faster.
 
is there an easy way to show people the effects of different r0 numbers? Im sure it could be done on excel or open office spreadsheet but Im not that math smart. Is there a online graph maker for that?
 
lomiller said:
Everyone on the Diamond Princess was tested. This makes it one of the best references for mortality rates. ~20% of the people aboard tested positive, just over half the people who tested positive showed no symptoms. Mortality for symptomatic cases was ~1.9%, for all cases was ~0.9%.

....
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You are trying to use a non random sample to apply to the whole population.

It doesn't work.
 
Skeptic Ginger said:
Testing for antibodies cannot distinguish between active and recovered cases.

You can test for recent infection vs one in the distant past but that takes comparing acute and convalescing titers.
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You can use IgM antibodies which indicate an acute infection. These decline and the IgG response kicks in and lasts for many years even lifelong. This is used for acute Zika infection where the viraemic window is very short and PCR tests would be negative.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
dudalb said:
Well, it is a beer virus, at least according to a right wing Congressman from Alaska


https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/19/politics/alaska-don-young-coronavirus/index.html
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I'm tired of this argument. If something kills 1-3% of people it infects, and we have a chance of preventing infection, how can we not take that chance? I'm not prepared to sacrifice 1-3 out of a hundred people in this country because of money.

And, of course, if we just blithely let the disease take its course while we make no attempts to slow it down through behavioral changes, the death rate won't stay at 1-3%. As hospitals run out of beds (forget about ventilators), the death rate from the coronavirus will rise. Even worse? The death rates from everything will rise. Need your life saved because you fell off a ladder and landed on your head? Have you had a stroke whose effects could largely be reversed by receiving immediate treatment with tPA? Car accident? Slip in the shower? Good luck, partner, because the hospitals can only handle so many people at a time under the best of conditions. Also, best case scenario, you live through your accident but you might just get some coronavirus during your recovery period, and guess who's not so low risk anymore?

ETA: Also, on this particular congressman, it seems that he's telling seniors that they should be ready to sacrifice themselves (or at least a certain percentage of themselves) in order to keep the economy going strong. How many dystopian stories have there been where the old are discarded so that the young can flourish? Does this ******* see those stories as aspirational?
 
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The Atheist said:
Like South Korea, they benefit from ingrained efficiency and a general population that buys into the plan.

And it works.



It's also guaranteed political suicide.

I doubt it will teach the lesson behind it though - that human life is more important than money and we'll all go back to consumerism like this never existed.



Nope, not even in the same order of magnitude.

The costs of people being allowed to die and overwhelm hospitals for a few months would cost 1/10th of the savings to be made from removing the chronically ill. You wouldn't even need to consider the $10-20 trillion the current effects are costing.

The cost benefit to letting people die is genuinely astronomical. You'd be looking at a short-term cost of a couple of hundred billion worldwide by allowing the virus to go wild. I'd say what we're doing will cost 100 times more.

And it's yet to be proven the epidemic can be stopped, so we may end up losing twice.
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Of course the problem is you don't know who is going to die ahead of time so you have to expensively treat a lot of people before you find the ones who die.
 
Meadmaker said:
The article said the test cost 15 euros. It said "per swab". Is that the actual cost of the test?
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Doubtful

The test, probably cheap. Lab and medical personnel to collect and process the test and all the PPE needed, not so cheap.

Meadmaker said:
If I had a choice between 1,000 cash per American, or 60 Covid-19 tests per American, I know which one I would want, and that would do a heck of a lot more to help the economy. I was under the impression that the cost of a test was much, much, higher, like maybe somewhere between 10 and 100 times higher, for the test.
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Interesting consideration.

Fauci was all giddy today with the latest "now we're going to have the tests" proclamation.

"Now that the private sector is getting involved...."

So why have they been telling us 'next week' for 4 weeks now?

My guess though about where to spend the money: Trump wants the economy to be OK and he doesn't want to know how many cases there actually are.
 
Skeptic Ginger said:
Testing for antibodies cannot distinguish between active and recovered cases.

You can test for recent infection vs one in the distant past but that takes comparing acute and convalescing titers.
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You can also look for IgM and IgG antibodies. IgM occurs early and rapidly declines, whilst IgG develops later and persists. The ratio of the two can help separate recent from more distant infections. We can safely assume that no one has had a SARS CoV 2 infection before November 2019.
 
eeyore1954 said:
I remember measles parties in the 60s.
Measles wasn’t frightening to me (of course I was a kid). I don’t recall people being afraid of it. I do remember people being afraid of polio.
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I'm willing to bet you have a false memory. The first vaccine was available in 1963 BTW.

Search images for "measles quarantine sign".
 
pipelineaudio said:
is there an easy way to show people the effects of different r0 numbers? Im sure it could be done on excel or open office spreadsheet but Im not that math smart. Is there a online graph maker for that?
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A number of the models published include different graphs and models for differing R0. The main intent is to cut the R0. Examples are
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/medrxiv/early/2020/02/14/2020.02.12.20022566.full.pdf
which models the impact of changing R0 with season.
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/im...-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf
models the impact of mitigation and social isolation on R0.
 
I came up with this info to help explain, I did a fair amount of research.

Why do the experts / more informed here think ...
Am I fairly accurate?

..........................

Why is Covid-19 nothing like the flu?
Why are experts so worried?

Number one is the R-0̷
Number two is the Death rate.

The flu spreads at a R-0̷ of R 0.8 to 1.2
Covid-19 has an R-0̷ of 2.8 to 3.2

The death rate for flu is under 0.1%
The death rate for Covid-19 is 3.5%

Do some math .... Covid-19 spreads

... 3 Times as FAST and kills
... 35 Times more people
 
The panic buying has gone too far.
No toilet roll
No tinned food
No cleaning products
No bread
No 'lady' products
No pasta
No rice
Worst of all ...

No bloody beer!

Why are they hoarding bloody beer?
 
welshdean said:
The panic buying has gone too far.
No toilet roll
No tinned food
No cleaning products
No bread
No 'lady' products
No pasta
No rice
Worst of all ...

No bloody beer!

Why are they hoarding bloody beer?
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Interesting, isn’t it? People just can’t see a problem and fix it. They have to ridiculously overshoot.
 
dudalb said:
SOrry, but you can't discuss the virus without the way govemments are handling....or mishandling it.
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Based on what? You're political opinion? Based on what you've read on the websites that you agree with? What are the parameters you use to separate 'the virus' from 'governments handling it'?

My point is, simply put, you can disagree with a governments decision without turning the thread into a political manifesto.
 
The number of confirmed cases in Michigan went from 110 yesterday to 336 today.

I hope that reflects a massive increase in testing.
 
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