2019-nCoV / Corona virus Pt 2

[Planigale]

Was just browsing the latest WHO sitrep.

One set of numbers that stuck out to me was the figures for Germany: 7156 confirmed cases, but only 13 deaths. That's a 0.18% mortality rate in Germany. Much higher in other countries of course. But there are a few other European countries with low ratios of deaths to infections.
Austria: 1332 and 3 (0.23%)
Norway: 1308 and 3 (0.23%)
Sweden: 1167 and 3 (0.26%)

On the high end though, in Italy it's 31506 and 2503 (7.9%)
Spain: 11178 and 491 (4.4%)
France: 7652 and 175 (2.9%)

So, a pretty stark difference among Northern European and Southern European countries it seems.

The low rates may be an artefact of the delay between infection and deaths. To look at the number of infected for the dead you really need to look back two weeks, which were the number infected when the dead were infected, or look forward two weeks to see how many of the currently infected have died.

If you go here
https://vac-lshtm.shinyapps.io/ncov_tracker/
you can look at the countries you are interested in, look at logarithmic view of deaths all Euopean (and US) countries seem to be on the same track just earlier or later in the outbreak.

 

[Ulf Nereng]

My guess it that this varies by country. If some countries (South Korea) it would be accurate, but in others (eg poor countries and USA) the final numbers could be vastly underestimated. Even comparing death stats between years might not give an accurate measure, as these can vary from year to year, or be inaccurate or incomplete.

Yes, we can probably expect that statistics in our western democracies will be accurate, at least as far as such statistics are being made. Future historians should be able to figure things out by comparing year by year statistics or noticing a sudden dip in average life expectancy.

 

[Dr.Sid]

Even during SARS the estimates of death rate from current numbers were half of the real values. And SARS was like 10 times slower.

South Korea's deaths per day seems to have peaked. Their current deaths / current cases gives nice 1%. Their current deaths / closed cases (deaths + recovered) give 5%. The final number should be somewhere in between these two.

 

[The Atheist]

So, a pretty stark difference among Northern European and Southern European countries it seems.

Much more efficient testing & diagnosis, and I don't think it has anything to do with delays, because Italy's and Spain's number have been terrible from the start. The northern Euros, like SK, are testing more, finding more, and giving a truer picture of what's happening.

 

[The Atheist]

According to our official reports, NZ has had no cases of community transmission.

Yet, we've managed to export cases to Samoa, and now South Africa.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/he...us-in-south-africa-travelled-from-new-zealand

 

[Cheetah]

Of our last 31 cases, 14 have been confirmed as community transmission.

 

[Puppycow]

I have a question: when they do a test for coronavirus, can that test only detect a current infection or can it tell the difference between a person who had it in the past and got better and a person who has never had it?

 

[Sherkeu]

Another good point on the motels - people will be a lot more likely to survive there than in a ******* tent or garage, as many are at the moment.

L.A. County got a bunch of RV's no one needs right now, kicked out tourists at Dockweiler Beach park next to LAX, and plan to allow infected homeless people to isolate there.

It's a good location since there is just one road, a gate to get in, and no street parking. The entire block on the other side of the street is a massive water treatment plant.

 

[pipelineaudio]

They just changed the status of the Kualoa tour guide case to "travel related' so allegedly we still don't have a community transmission case

 

[rjh01]

I have a question: when they do a test for coronavirus, can that test only detect a current infection or can it tell the difference between a person who had it in the past and got better and a person who has never had it?

If a person has recovered from the virus the result will be the same as a person who has never had the virus.

 

[dann]

That would depend on the test: Does it test for the virus or for antibodies against the virus?
UK focusing on two coronavirus tests, one for antibodies (National Post, March 18, 2020)
If it tests for antibodies, a person who has had the virus will be different from one who never had it.

 

[Belz...]

When you can't defend the position, "I wonder if we're doing maybe a bit too much", obfuscate.

What are you even on about? I brought up my worries that maybe we're overreacting to this thing and you treat it as if the very suggestion is offensive to you.

There's nothing to defend or clarify. You're just being combattive for no reason.

 

[Belz...]

You win the most hearless, ignorant post of the month.

But is it wrong? We're allowed to discuss topics without banning dispassionate views.

The measures we're taking are going to cause a global recession, probably. I don't think it's callous to wonder if it was worth it.

2020 - The Year Thanos Snapped.

"I will create a perfectly balanced universe by eliminating less than one per cent of the population!"

It's a classic lose/lose situation. If too many people die, it's a tragedy, if too few die, we've wrecked the economy for nothing.

Yes, that's exactly the issue that was raised. And I don't think it's heartless to raise it. I just don't know what the answer is.

 

[Capsid]

I have a question: when they do a test for coronavirus, can that test only detect a current infection or can it tell the difference between a person who had it in the past and got better and a person who has never had it?

A PCR test will detect viral RNA and indicates an ongoing infection. A different test can detect antibodies in the blood that indicates you had been exposed to the virus at some point and have raised an immune response to it. The latter test has not been carried out yet.

 

[Samson]

A PCR test will detect viral RNA and indicates an ongoing infection. A different test can detect antibodies in the blood that indicates you had been exposed to the virus at some point and have raised an immune response to it. The latter test has not been carried out yet.

That illuminates

 

[Sherkeu]

A PCR test will detect viral RNA and indicates an ongoing infection. A different test can detect antibodies in the blood that indicates you had been exposed to the virus at some point and have raised an immune response to it. The latter test has not been carried out yet.

Makes sense.

Many stories of recovery mention 2 'negative' tests being needed a day apart to clear from quarantine. Same result a 'never infected' person would have.

 

[Capsid]

Makes sense.

Many stories of recovery mention 2 'negative' tests being needed a day apart to clear from quarantine. Same result a 'never infected' person would have.

Usually, in those cases, the person has had a previous positive test result.

 

[Olmstead]

But is it wrong? We're allowed to discuss topics without banning dispassionate views.

The measures we're taking are going to cause a global recession, probably. I don't think it's callous to wonder if it was worth it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=owI7DOeO_yg

 

[Belz...]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=owI7DOeO_yg

Sorry, can't view YT from here. What is it?

 

[Olmstead]

Sorry, can't view YT from here. What is it?

Mitchell and Webb sketch discussing whether it's morally okay to run a computer simulation to find out if killing all the poor would fix the recession.

I don't have any point, the argument just reminded me of it, and I thought it was funny and topical.