Skeptic Ginger
Nasty Woman
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I do believe this confirms what I've been saying,
2019-nCoV / Corona virus Pt 2
- Thread starter quadraginta
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I do believe this confirms what I've been saying,
Exactly. China has managed in a few months to bring new domestic infections to near zero. After starting with an unidentified virus, a huge concentrated population, an incredibly fast spread, and with initial political denials. South Korea managed to intercept the disease even earlier in its spread.
And now we have an example of how not to do it in Italy.
Come on, failure is not an option. Are we in the USA, Europe, Australia, NZ, or other countries with money and sophisticated health systems unable to duplicate the right examples? How to do it is known. Will our citizens and governments be unable to do the right thing when lives are at stake? If so maybe we deserve what we get.
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Sherkeu
Illuminator
China has done an incredible amount of monitoring and isolating.
There was a french journalist who documented how much they are checked as they try to get around. There are passes that need renewing just to go outside your building, checkpoints everywhere. Most supplies are by 'no touch' delivery. A locked gate became a gate with wire on top which became an even taller gate- just for one building complex. Temps are taken everywhere you go. Everyone is tracked. I can't think of another country that could do it.
I'll look for the video...
here it is: A Diary in Quarantine
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3K3fy5eKeuM
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The Atheist
The Grammar Tyrant
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Couldn't agree more.
NZ has been utterly pathetic and today's announcement is a continuation of it, crowing about no community transmission.
Yet, we know fro certain that a large number of people exhibiting the exact symptoms of Covid-19 have been denied testing because they haven't been overseas.
I can - there's a huge number of people looking for work right now. Tourism, restaurants, events and lots of other businesses have disappeared overnight, leading to an extreme glut of people. It's not too hard to train them for the simple tasks that would make a big difference.
The Atheist
The Grammar Tyrant
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Some strange news - the age group 30-39 in NSW has been the fastest-growing group.
Small numbers, but surely lends more credence to the little school vectors carrying the bug.
Small numbers, but surely lends more credence to the little school vectors carrying the bug.
Plenty of horticulture jobs available now that there are no Islanders and backpackers to do the work. Will also be a glut of long term accommodation available from empty Motels etc. Perhaps house rents might even come down.
Govt should be paying for hotel accommodation close to international airports for Kiwi returners to properly isolate for the two weeks.
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A useful site with plain English reviews of medical issues with Covid 19, from the centre for evidence based medicine at Oxford University.
https://www.cebm.net/oxford-covid-19/
https://www.cebm.net/oxford-covid-19/
This is a more technical summary of the state of knowledge about covid-19 disease for medics. Towards the end does include a good review about treatment options.
They suggest the best evidence pending trials is for the triple combination of lopinavir and ritonavir (Kaletra) and Ribavarin. This is oral treatment.
https://wspidsoc.kenes.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/95/2020/03/KCC-Covid19-evidence-summary.pdf
They suggest the best evidence pending trials is for the triple combination of lopinavir and ritonavir (Kaletra) and Ribavarin. This is oral treatment.
https://wspidsoc.kenes.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/95/2020/03/KCC-Covid19-evidence-summary.pdf
ProBonoShill
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What's going on in Germany?
Over twelve thousand cases (5th most in the world) and only 28 deaths.
Over twelve thousand cases (5th most in the world) and only 28 deaths.
WHO seems to be recommending a test and isolate program be developed.
https://www.who.int/dg/speeches/det...he-media-briefing-on-covid-19---16-march-2020
This will mean a massive ramp up in testing, as essentially the whole population will need to be tested and retested at frequent intervals. Anyone positive is put into home isolation with their families.
If an effective antibody test becomes available to show who has been infected and assuming previous infection results in immunity such that you cannot be reinfected then this will mean the number needing monitoring will progressively fall. It may also mean we will all have to carry our tested immune papers with us if we want to travel, go out to clubs etc.
A dystopian novel of an elite of 'immunes' allowed out and about whilst 'susceptibles' remain locked away is called for.
https://www.who.int/dg/speeches/det...he-media-briefing-on-covid-19---16-march-2020
This will mean a massive ramp up in testing, as essentially the whole population will need to be tested and retested at frequent intervals. Anyone positive is put into home isolation with their families.
If an effective antibody test becomes available to show who has been infected and assuming previous infection results in immunity such that you cannot be reinfected then this will mean the number needing monitoring will progressively fall. It may also mean we will all have to carry our tested immune papers with us if we want to travel, go out to clubs etc.
A dystopian novel of an elite of 'immunes' allowed out and about whilst 'susceptibles' remain locked away is called for.
The Atheist
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That's a very good point! I'm on it.
I'm trying to partner up people who have lost their jobs with jobs that will desperately need doing. Immediately, that means delivery people for the oldies who don't want to leave their house.
You can PM me if you want to have a piece of that action in Chch!
Another good point on the motels - people will be a lot more likely to survive there than in a ******* tent or garage, as many are at the moment.
Rents, I'm certain will fall, and sharply.
I've been clamouring for a couple of years to cut the goddamned student visas. This is possibly not the way to do it, but I'll take the result.
I have been laughing about the real estate dicks who only a fortnight ago were predicting 10% growth in house prices this year and have suddenly realised it's going to be 10% the other way.
Thanks for both of those - very informative.
The Atheist
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Testing.
Like South Korea, they're catching a lot of mild and asymptomatic cases by testing the hell out of everyone. That gives a much more accurate position.
Add to that, early and astute medical intervention. No surprise the Krauts are on it.
Not stupid - see above. Haven't they been saying this from the start anyway?
rjh01
Gentleman of leisure
I have been following the numbers of people infected outside of China. The good news for people who want the virus to go away is that about the end of May it will be unable to find any new victims as everyone would be either isolated or already have had the virus.
The exact date will depend on how quickly the virus spreads. If politicians take action to slow the spread then this date will be later. Or if healthy people start having virus parties (think measles parties pre vaccine) then the date will be earlier.
ETA: Also it could be earlier than that if the numbers are vastly understated. Or many people live in isolation.
After this date we will be able to buy TP again. Hope everyone has enough to last until then.
The exact date will depend on how quickly the virus spreads. If politicians take action to slow the spread then this date will be later. Or if healthy people start having virus parties (think measles parties pre vaccine) then the date will be earlier.
ETA: Also it could be earlier than that if the numbers are vastly understated. Or many people live in isolation.
After this date we will be able to buy TP again. Hope everyone has enough to last until then.
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No, to begin with there were limited testing facilities and they advocated only testing symptomatic patients with known contacts or risk factors. Going to a population wide screening of asymptomatic persons has never been attempted before, it will require massive resources.
The Atheist
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I'd be happy if people set fire to the building they're in.
You don't need to go nationwide, you need to contact all potential cases and test those repeatedly.
Ulf Nereng
Muse
I'm still not finding answers to a question I've been wondering for some time: How real are the death toll numbers we see?
It's easy to assume that they would autopsy anyone who dies with symptoms that looks like it might be covid-19, but are they actually doing that? We have a situation now where they aren't even testing nurses who are showing the symptoms and where the entire system is stretched to its limits. How full is the morgue right now? The family of the departed will want to bury him/her. Just chalk it up to pneumonia or whatever...
It's easy to assume that they would autopsy anyone who dies with symptoms that looks like it might be covid-19, but are they actually doing that? We have a situation now where they aren't even testing nurses who are showing the symptoms and where the entire system is stretched to its limits. How full is the morgue right now? The family of the departed will want to bury him/her. Just chalk it up to pneumonia or whatever...
No one likes doing autopsies on people who died of infectious disease, it is a good way of catching them. Also in most cases unnecessary, since ill people are being tested before they die.
The Oxford site I referenced above covers this for England and Wales, in particular it gives comparisons with previous years. So far there is no real detectable excess mortality but we are early in the outbreak.
https://www.cebm.net/england-and-wales-mortality-during-the-covid-19-outbreak/
Puppycow
Penultimate Amazing
Was just browsing the latest WHO sitrep.
One set of numbers that stuck out to me was the figures for Germany: 7156 confirmed cases, but only 13 deaths. That's a 0.18% mortality rate in Germany. Much higher in other countries of course. But there are a few other European countries with low ratios of deaths to infections.
Austria: 1332 and 3 (0.23%)
Norway: 1308 and 3 (0.23%)
Sweden: 1167 and 3 (0.26%)
On the high end though, in Italy it's 31506 and 2503 (7.9%)
Spain: 11178 and 491 (4.4%)
France: 7652 and 175 (2.9%)
So, a pretty stark difference among Northern European and Southern European countries it seems.
One set of numbers that stuck out to me was the figures for Germany: 7156 confirmed cases, but only 13 deaths. That's a 0.18% mortality rate in Germany. Much higher in other countries of course. But there are a few other European countries with low ratios of deaths to infections.
Austria: 1332 and 3 (0.23%)
Norway: 1308 and 3 (0.23%)
Sweden: 1167 and 3 (0.26%)
On the high end though, in Italy it's 31506 and 2503 (7.9%)
Spain: 11178 and 491 (4.4%)
France: 7652 and 175 (2.9%)
So, a pretty stark difference among Northern European and Southern European countries it seems.
rjh01
Gentleman of leisure
My guess it that this varies by country. If some countries (South Korea) it would be accurate, but in others (eg poor countries and USA) the final numbers could be vastly underestimated. Even comparing death stats between years might not give an accurate measure, as these can vary from year to year, or be inaccurate or incomplete.
Ulf Nereng
Muse
Thanks! Those are precisely the kind of statistics I've been looking for! We have to keep in mind that there is a lag in deaths because it takes about 2-3 weeks from incubation to death, so any spike in UK should begin to show up... maybe one or two weeks from now?
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