2019-nCoV / Corona virus Pt 2

[Kings Full]

Looks like the GOP gutting public health preparedness maybe wasn't such a good idea after all.

Provide me with specifics regarding the GOP "gutting" public health preparedness. Not some vague things you read on CNN or MSNBC, but specifics. Also, provide proof.

I'll wait right here....

 

[Kings Full]

Since some time in February (not sure of the date), there have been much stricter edicts from Beijing. It remains to be seen how widely the new edicts are adhered to, once life gets back to “normal”.

I suspect that it will be business as usual once things get back to 'normal'.

The general problem remains ... hunting and eating wildlife is certainly not unique to China, and one form or other of wet markets can be found in many places. Too, it’s not just in China that there are wildlife species with viruses which could become zoonotic.

True, but generally speaking the difference with China's wet markets is a combination of volume and hygiene.

 

[Giordano]

The irony is that I hope people later say that we did too much. That will only be said if we escape the worse scenarios. Unfortunately most people will not realize how important the interventions were and how close we ducked the bullet.

I hope the right people learn from it, but I can’t count on it.

 

[trustbutverify]

All schools in the UK to close.
I guess "letting nature take it course" is over.
I have not seen one medical expert who has not said it was bad idea from day one.

I don't trust any so called "experts", after all these years of lying about the Earth being round. This make-believe "virus" is laughable.

 

[Meadmaker]

I don't trust any so called "experts", after all these years of lying about the Earth being round. This make-believe "virus" is laughable.

 

[Giordano]

This is only helpful if the people in that line outside take advantage of it.

A few days ago one of our local news outlets had somebody at an area Costco (big box type store). They were showing a line which wrapped around the store, waiting for it to open.

There didn't seem to be any attempt to spread out. It looked like a usual line of people waiting to get into any popular venue. All crowded up the same way. Trying to prevent line crashers, I guess.

Against stupidity the gods themselves are helpless...

 

[Andy_Ross]

Supposedly according to rumours being passed around Facebook and Twitter Boris is. going to put the whole of the UK on total lockdown on friday with the police and army on the streets to arrest anyone breaking curfew.
Apparently

My mates brother is a soldier based at catterick he’s text me to say they have been mobilised this afternoon and they have started moving out of the barracks tonight as Boris is going to address the nation tomorrow at 5pm to say we are going on lockdown for 15 days from Friday.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

Provide me with specifics regarding the GOP "gutting" public health preparedness. Not some vague things you read on CNN or MSNBC, but specifics. Also, provide proof.

I'll wait right here....

Oh for pity's sake. Where have you been?

Here are some examples of the pattern:
2017: GOP health plan bill puts $1B CDC funding for disease prevention at risk

Among the potential casualties of the GOP’s bill to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act: $1 billion for the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to fund essential public health programs, including the prevention of disease outbreaks.

The fund was created in 2010 under the Affordable Care Act to prevent illness and reduce healthcare costs.

Although it’s possible the CDC won’t lose all the funding if the bill fails or is amended, public health officials are worried. The bill passed two committees in the House on Thursday after hours of debate.

The funds make up about 12% or roughly $900 million of the agency’s $12 billion budget and supports the monitoring of infectious diseases, efforts to reduce hospital-acquired infections and programs that support diabetes, cancer, heart disease, stroke and lead poisoning prevention...

...But their appeals may fall on deaf ears. Republican lawmakers have long criticized the funding and are anxious to get rid of it.

The Hill - Coronavirus poses new test for strained public health system

The emergence of the coronavirus could pose a tough test for a public health infrastructure that is fraying at the edges due to years of budget cuts and limited resources....

State and local health departments are already addressing a variety of public health issues right now, including a widespread flu virus, the opioid epidemic, vaping illnesses, rising STD rates, record-high suicide rates and natural disasters.

But they haven’t seen funding increases from Congress or federal health agencies that keep pace with the increasing demands put on health departments....

...A key source of funding for state and local health departments is the public health emergency preparedness grants from the CDC.

The grant program, which helps health departments in all 50 states prepare for and respond to public health threats, has seen a 30 percent funding cut since it was first established in 2002, despite an increasing number of public health emergencies. It has been flat-funded for the past two years at $675,000.

More about cuts after the GOP began attacking the ACA is in the article.

USA Today: 'Gross misjudgment': Experts say Trump's decision to disband pandemic team hindered coronavirus response

Trump bristled when asked about his decision to disband the office at a news conference in the Rose Garden on Friday.

“I just think it's a nasty question,” the president responded. “And when you say ‘me,' I didn't do it. ... I don't know anything about it.”

John Bolton, Trump’s former national security adviser, has defended the decision in recent days.

Trump chose Bolton to lead the National Security Council in April 2018. A month later, Bolton nixed the pandemic preparedness office as part of an effort to streamline the agency.

So Trump puts Bolton in charge then says he didn't know Bolton gutted the team.

There's a Trump apologist out there claiming it never happened. But the fact is, the team was disbanded.

 

[Giordano]

(a) The grocery stores where I shop all have parking garages, so ventilation in the waiting area will be imperfect.
(b) People might buy more items, fearing not being able to get back in, and therefore spend more time in the store.
(c) People will be more conscious about trying not to cough when they are in the store (and be less stressed).
(d) I don't think that the few minutes that people generally stand in line to checkout will make that much difference.



Any reason to think that people will maintain spacing while waiting in a long line? Especially when some will start to get nervous and worry whether they will be able to get in and if they will there be anything left on the shelves?
Did the people trying to get through the temperature screening at airports keep their spacing?



They are probably going to touch just as many surfaces inside the store plus the surfaces they touched while waiting.



(a) If the next person in line has to wait for someone to not only get through the checkout line but to completely exit the store before they can even enter, the throughput will be slower.
(b) People might panic and think that they have to get into line NOW or never get in, which could lead to more people trying to shop at the same time.

ETA:
I suppose that it depends on how strict the limit is. If it isn't as strict as requiring there to never be a wait at the checkout counters, than most of my points won't hold.

No time to reply to every point but the math is simple: x. number of people show up to buy stuff, y many of them can be processed through the checkout per minute. The lengths of the lines are therefore the same whether kept outdoors or indoors. Whether you can keep them apart by asking them to will be the same inside vs outside, whereas outside provides a lot more room for them to do so if they are willing. Crowds at registers particularly a concern vs open parking structures (remember these have air flows to vent car exhaust).

 

[Planigale]

I suspect that it will be business as usual once things get back to 'normal'.



True, but generally speaking the difference with China's wet markets is a combination of volume and hygiene.

Things won't get back to normal until there is a vaccine available. The world could be in intermittent lock down for a year or more. Things will change. Schools will be on line for the next year. Universities will be virtual. There will be before 2020 and after 2020.

 

[Matthew Best]

If you read the paper I have referenced above it shows the death rates for US and UK and the impacts of different mitigating efforts. Also what the probable end game is.

Yeah, but experts - what do they know? Right?

 

[Kings Full]

Oh for pity's sake. Where have you been?

Here are some examples of the pattern:
2017: GOP health plan bill puts $1B CDC funding for disease prevention at risk


The Hill - Coronavirus poses new test for strained public health systemMore about cuts after the GOP began attacking the ACA is in the article.

USA Today: 'Gross misjudgment': Experts say Trump's decision to disband pandemic team hindered coronavirus responseSo Trump puts Bolton in charge then says he didn't know Bolton gutted the team.

There's a Trump apologist out there claiming it never happened. But the fact is, the team was disbanded.

So much BS.

http://www.centerforhealthsecurity....s/Clade-X-federal-pandemic-response-plans.pdf

HHS initially developed the Pandemic Influenza Plan in 2005 to “prevent, control, and mitigate the
effects of influenza viruses that pose high risk to humans.”2
It was last updated in 2017 and
identifies 7 key domains that will be focused on during the next 10 years:2

 

[dudalb]

I don't trust any so called "experts", after all these years of lying about the Earth being round. This make-believe "virus" is laughable.

The guy who suggested the Herd Immunity solution is a scienctest, but then some people with great scientific credentials have bought into crackpot ideas. I think this is one of those cases, and, unfortunalty in this case he had the ear of Bojo.

 

[dudalb]

Well everybody just hopes 'it won't be him'. That's very poor approach to safety.

As a US army vet, I would not want somebody with that mentality is my squad.

 

[Planigale]

The guy who suggested the Herd Immunity solution is a scienctest, but then some people with great scientific credentials have bought into crackpot ideas. I think this is one of those cases, and, unfortunalty in this case he had the ear of Bojo.

Yes, and as they say no plan survives contact with the enemy. But at least they are prepared to revise their views and adapt. If you want to know about mitigation, the options for mitigation and what the next year will be like please read this paper.
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imp...16-03-2020.pdf

 

[alfaniner]

Things won't get back to normal until there is a vaccine available. The world could be in intermittent lock down for a year or more. Things will change. Schools will be on line for the next year. Universities will be virtual. There will be before 2020 and after 2020.

2020 - The Year Thanos Snapped.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

So much BS.

http://www.centerforhealthsecurity....s/Clade-X-federal-pandemic-response-plans.pdf

Like I said, Trump apologists.

How does that single pandemic plan represent the entire work of the committee that was disbanded? We have several plans here too, I worked on a couple of them. They didn't need updating they were specific to flu and in our case it addressed treatment and vaccine and how those drugs would be allocated. I looked at our old plan and not much of it applied here. So?

Did you address my links? GOP funding cuts? The actual positions Bolton ended?

 

[The Atheist]

There would have still been a big economic hit, but it wouldn't have been the shock that it turned out to be.

How do you think I feel?

New Zealand could right now be sitting on zero cases, with very high confidence it would stay at zero. We're a frigging island 2000 km away from the next piece of land.

Close borders, and only allowed in if you spend two weeks in guarded quarantine.

We'd be making a killing financially as well, because you can bet there are plenty of the rich who would come here and pay handsomely for the privilege. (Which they're currently doing, as it happens, not realising we aren't immune from stupidity)

I hope the right people learn from it, but I can’t count on it.

It's a classic lose/lose situation. If too many people die, it's a tragedy, if too few die, we've wrecked the economy for nothing.

Things won't get back to normal until there is a vaccine available. The world could be in intermittent lock down for a year or more. Things will change. Schools will be on line for the next year. Universities will be virtual. There will be before 2020 and after 2020.

Yeah, I can see it being like that.

The one slight hope is that China's tests turn up a strong treatment, in which case we can all stand down.

 

[dudalb]

Lots of stories about breakthroughs concerrning vaccines or cures on the verge of being discovered and avaialble in a couple of weeks. I presume most of these are way too optimistic , to put it mildly.

 

[TellyKNeasuss]

It's absolutely not worth it, it's insanity. Italy, who has been the hardest hit, has only had ~2000 deaths, and they just released a study showing that 99% of them had prexisting medical conditions. It's crazy to destroy the economy and shut down the world over this. If it were just allowed to run it's course, maybe a quarter million people worldwide would die. Maybe these measures will reduce that by half. The damage to the economy will end up meaning that we valued each of those lives at somewhere between 300-600 million dollars each.

Sorry, but I just don't think that's worth it.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/nypost...ts-in-italy-who-died-had-other-illnesses/amp/

First of all, your estimate of the number of people who would die if COVID-19 was "allowed to run it's (sic) course" is low. By several orders of magnitude.

Second, the "preexisting (sic) conditions" mentioned in the article aren't exactly rare. Close to 40 percent of adult Americans have 1 or more of them.