2019-nCoV / Corona virus Pt 2

[dann]

Links would've been nice.

You can have mine.

 

[casebro]

Just about. New cases have dropped and are still dropping, and they've had a very low mortality rate. Also, and interestingly, they have very few serious cases.



.....

China's are dropping too. Is it possible that there is a small, finite section of the population that is susceptible, and those two countries have hit them all? Aren't they using two different strategies?

 

[dann]

PS

It looks like norwegian ski-tourists in Austria did much the same. According to this story, half the initial cases were traced back to a specific bartender in Austria who has a norwegian-sounding name:

https://www.aftenposten.no/verden/i/9vdVnM/5-mars-begynte-varslene-om-koronasmittede-skiturister-aa-renne-inn-det-tok-ti-dager-foer-oesterrike-stengte-skiheisene

I wonder if they are running out of tests. Only those who appear to need hospitalization are tested now.

But when Scandinavians are being stupid, it's easier to blame the Austrians:
Østrigske myndigheder møder hård kritik: Hvorfor gjorde de ikke mere, da folk blev syge? (DR.dk, March 15, 2020)

 

[lomiller]

At least you don't cater to the Popper nonsense that scientists are primarily trying to disprove their own theories.

More recent work on the philosophy of science focuses on selecting the best theory from a number of completing theories The process of science should determine which theory is the best, and whether it's good enough to provide useful insight.


Since even the best theories are still not true or proven, there will always be flaws holes or unknowns. The existence of these isn't relevant unless another theory explains them AND also explains everything the established theory does.

 

[ohms]

A Japanese flu drug, favipiravir (aka Avigan), has shown some promise according to the Chinese:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...-effective-in-treating-coronavirus-says-china

 

[JeanTate]

A sort of goodbye

A sort of goodbye, spread over a post or three ...

Those of my fellow ISF members who've been around for a while and hang out in this SMM&T board may have wondered why I have posted so much in this thread. After all, my wheelhouse is astronomy, astrophysics, cosmology, physics, that sort of thing.

A long time ago, in a thread now far far away, I mentioned that someone near and dear to me has cancer. Metastatic, or Stage 4, cancer. I'll call him Alex (not his real name). The cancer is a rare one, and he's had the metastatic form for ~ten years now. While he rarely has any symptoms due to the cancer, his lungs have dozens of tumors (one blocked a bronchus; easy to remove). And every now and then a tumor turns up in his liver. He's been on infusion chemo for over five years, with surgeries and radiotherapy sprinkled through the years. He's otherwise healthy ... never smoked, a lifetime of regular exercise, slightly overweight but not obese, etc, etc, etc. But he's in his 70s. He has had his flu shots, pneumonia shots, etc. Use to suffer from seasonal allergies, but the chemo put paid to those.

We saw Covid-19 coming, from the first reliable reports out of China. We knew it was almost inevitable that a day like today would come, here in the US. So we have a good supply of face masks, soap, etc; a well-stocked chest freezer; a working generator (thank you Sandy); etc. Alex has not been out of the house for quite some time now, except to go to the cancer center for treatment.

I tried to learn as much as I could about Covid-19. And this thread has been extremely helpful to that end. I also read government (and their agencies) websites, those in English anyway. Until recently, the only one that I'd recommend is that of Singapore. And it goes without saying, for regular readers, that the Federal US government's "message" has been, variously, dishonest, muddled, confused, inconsistent, ... perhaps a textbook case of what NOT to do, in terms of public health communication.

(to be continued)

 

[Marcus]

Me either. Like I said, just a passing thought.

I don't know if I have any tee shirts packed away that would make for an appropriate test. I've never been much for tee shirts, and I don't think I have anything which would fit the heavy duty, two-ply description.

Dust masks would make a nice substitute. I'm not the first one to think of it though, I just checked my usual woodworking sources and they are all sold out.

 

[ceptimus]

Yes, pandemics look extremely small when they have only just begun, don't they?

As is made very clear by the chart itself.

 

[JeanTate]

(continued)

The chance that Alex will die in the next few months, of Covid-19, is certainly much greater than 5%. True, getting the flu could also kill him ... but the chance is far less than 5%.

One likely scenario: triaged out ... he needs a respirator but he's not rich/famous/etc enough to pull strings, and there aren't enough respirators to go round. So, who you gonna let die? An immuno-compromised man in his 70s with a chronic, incurable lung condition ...

If we lived in a just world, I - along with possibly millions of others - would demand criminal sanctions against Xi and Trump.

Xi? Not for being responsible for the initial failures in Wuhan (though those failures alone make him a criminal), but for not doing what was so obviously needed after SARS ... close the "wet markets", eliminate the eating of "wildlife", prepare adequately for the next SARS.

Trump? The US may not have been able, ultimately, to contain the spread of Covid-19 as Singapore, Taiwan, ... even S Korea has done (touch wood). But to have done essentially nothing (until it's too late) is criminal. And yes, he's the one responsible.

(to be continued)

 

[casebro]

(continued)

....If we lived in a just world, I - along with possibly millions of others - would demand criminal sanctions against Xi and Trump.

Xi? Not for being responsible for the initial failures in Wuhan (though those failures alone make him a criminal), but for not doing what was so obviously needed after SARS ... close the "wet markets", eliminate the eating of "wildlife", prepare adequately for the next SARS.

....
(to be continued)

uumm, what? Has CV-19 been linked to eating wild life? I thought that was eliminated early on?

 

[TellyKNeasuss]

uumm, what? Has CV-19 been linked to eating wild life? I thought that was eliminated early on?

Would there have been a reason to have wildlife at "wet markets" if they aren't going to be consumed?

 

[Kings Full]

uumm, what? Has CV-19 been linked to eating wild life? I thought that was eliminated early on?

Covid-19 is a zoonotic disease. There was an animal involved somewhere.

 

[Marcus]

My great fear of the moment is that I don't see a path to normalcy from here.

Yes, someday schools will be open and I can go to restaurants again, and unemployment will be back to normal, but I don't see how we get from here to there in weeks, or even months, and if we don't get there in months, the economic fallout will last years.

Yes, we appear to be headed for a global recession. I will be surprised if we recover in less than 2 years.

 

[TellyKNeasuss]

Yesterday, the Washington Post had an article about the latest mitigation idea: strictly limit the number of people allowed in a grocery store at one time. I'm trying to figure out how this will help. Yes, with a limited amount of people in the store, they will be more spread out than if everyone was let in. But what about the people who will be waiting to get in? Are they going to also be spread out or will they be crammed together more tightly than if they were shopping? And won't they potentially be crammed together for a far longer time than if they were in the store? OK, maybe not, because the people who manage to get into the store will be incentivized to buy as much of everything that they can to preclude risking having to stand in line for hours the next time they need to shop, so I would expect the stores to quickly run out of just about everything.

 

[Darat]

Yesterday, the Washington Post had an article about the latest mitigation idea: strictly limit the number of people allowed in a grocery store at one time. I'm trying to figure out how this will help. Yes, with a limited amount of people in the store, they will be more spread out than if everyone was let in. But what about the people who will be waiting to get in? Are they going to also be spread out or will they be crammed together more tightly than if they were shopping? And won't they potentially be crammed together for a far longer time than if they were in the store? OK, maybe not, because the people who manage to get into the store will be incentivized to buy as much of everything that they can to preclude risking having to stand in line for hours the next time they need to shop, so I would expect the stores to quickly run out of just about everything.

Think of it from someone working in a shop, then it makes a lot of sense.

 

[Skeptical Greg]

Did I miss where this has been mentioned?

Vaccine Being Tested in Seattle

 

[TellyKNeasuss]

A couple of proposals to help the economy seem pretty dubious to me.

I don't know how sending everyone $1,000 or $2,000 helps a lot. Given that just about everything that I would spend money on other than groceries is pretty much unavailable, it is highly unlikely that I would increase my spending. And when (if?) the crisis ends, I will have all the money that I didn't spend during the crisis to spend.

I'm not sure how cutting payroll taxes helps a lot. Do restaurant owners who had to close down and layoff all their employees still have a payroll to not pay taxes on?

IMveryHO, the best way to help would be to increase unemployment benefits. That way the people who were laid off when they get their jobs back might not have to spend the next year using what otherwise would have been discretionary income to pay back the rent and/or credit card bills that they were unable to afford while on unemployment (which in most places in the US is only 40-50 percent of what you were making at the job that you were laid off from).

 

[TellyKNeasuss]

Think of it from someone working in a shop, then it makes a lot of sense.

I don't understand. Are people who drive to a store, walk directly into the store, do their shopping, and leave more or less likely to sneeze or cough while they are in the store than people who stand outside for hours before going into the store? Are they more or less likely to have touched something that had viruses on it?

 

[Fast Eddie B]

Not independently verified, but this just crossed my Twitter feed:

 

[crescent]

Did I miss where this has been mentioned?

Vaccine Being Tested in Seattle

Vaccines are being tested in several nations. The consensus is that they are still at least a year away from being publicly available.

Containing 2019-nCoV (Wuhan) coronavirus

a vaccine cannot be developed and deployed for at least a year

Priorities for the US Health Community Responding to COVID-19

It is expected that a COVID-19 vaccine will take 12 to 18 months to develop and manufacture, and even then it may not be effective.

The SARS-CoV-2 Vaccine Pipeline: an Overview

There are now at least a half-dozen candidates, including live viruses, recombinant protein subunits, and nucleic acids that may ultimately offer promise as preventive vaccines against COVID-19. However, each of these vaccines may require additional manufacturing steps and formal toxicology testing before submitting a regulatory package to national regulatory agencies and be able to commence the clinical development, first with phase 1 clinical trials for safety and immunogenicity, and later, phase 2 and phase 3 trials for both safety and efficacy.