2019-nCoV / Corona virus Pt 2

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Guess what? Libertarians say the way to solve the virus is gor government to do nothing and let the invisible hand take over:

www.reason.com

The we don't need to stinking curfews or restrictions article is partiuclary ripe
 
Nessie said:
I now cannot visit my elderly father. Our work is at risk and we look after a lot of vulnerable people.

I just cannot get over how stupid some people can be.
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Selfish, not stupid - they know exactly what they're doing.

JeanTate said:
Did those who built the models not even try to learn from China's experience? They had to wait for hundreds of deaths in Italy before they twigged to the fact that the UK was going to be in for a very rough ride?
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Just think, if they'd been reading this thread they'd have been ahead of the game.

JeanTate said:
I do not know what the governments of, say, New Zealand, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, or even Canada (to pick just a few examples of places with enough resources - including legal - to at least try) are aiming to do.
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New Zealand has taken the option of making calming statements while the health services put their hands over their eyes and sing very loudly so they can't hear people clamouring for tests.

We've had a 250% our cases in 24 hours. Only from 8 to 20, but in a US-sized population that would be 600 cases growing to 1500 in one day, and cause for concern.

I cannot believe how out of touch our medical specialists in charge of this are. We have the excellent example of South Korea but are acting more like USA than anyone else.

pipelineaudio said:
What would you make nappy solution out of? We're gearing up right now to make masks but do not know how to wash them and I can't find much good info
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I don't know that you can make it - I'm referring to commercially-available nappy/diaper soaking powder that you put ion water and soak things in it. Active ingredient is sodium percarbonate at 25% +. Soak two hours should do it.

Marcus said:
Global death number as of today, 7,905. The tenth leading cause of death in a single country, the US, in 2017 was 47,173. Yes, I know it is early in the epidemic for some countries, but the risk seems way out of proportion with the economic destruction already caused.
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It does seem so - I reckon the economic damage will be somewhere in the $8-10 trillion range and we might save 20,000,000 lives. Pretty expensive way to prolong the life of a load of old and chronically ill people.

The pragmatist in me says we should let it go and save trillions in future healthcare costs, because the people Covid-19 is killing are all the high-users of health care.
 
Planigale said:
I read his CV and publications.

No training or publications in public health, health policy, communicable disease control, or epidemiology, one publication out of 140 odd as fourth author on epidemiology, and none on disease modelling. Not medically qualified.

Excellent publications on bacterial genetics.
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:rolleyes:
 
Marcus said:
Global death number as of today, 7,905. The tenth leading cause of death in a single country, the US, in 2017 was 47,173. Yes, I know it is early in the epidemic for some countries, but the risk seems way out of proportion with the economic destruction already caused.
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How did you work that out?
 
quadraginta said:
That is an interesting and useful article.

I am somewhat curious about how difficult it is to breath through nine layers of military grade, heavy-duty, 2-ply tee shirt material. I have no idea how significantly that differs from, say, a Hanes "Mighty" tee, and nine layers of that would be fairly hard.
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Even with N95 masks, anyone with health problems needs a physician (or NP/PA) clearance that determines if they will have trouble with the restricted breathing.
 
Marcus said:
Global death number as of today, 7,905. The tenth leading cause of death in a single country, the US, in 2017 was 47,173. Yes, I know it is early in the epidemic for some countries, but the risk seems way out of proportion with the economic destruction already caused.
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It may seem that way, but the number of cases (and related deaths) is expected to quickly rise. It may be difficult to evaluate whether or not the response was warranted after all the dust has settled.
 
dudalb said:
Guess what? Libertarians say the way to solve the virus is gor government to do nothing and let the invisible hand take over:
The we don't need to stinking curfews or restrictions article is partiuclary ripe
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That's how liberatarianism works. Everything has its price.

sir drinks-a-lot said:
It may seem that way, but the number of cases (and related deaths) is expected to quickly rise. It may be difficult to evaluate whether or not the response was warranted after all the dust has settled.
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I just mentioned that.

What you're doing is valuing the lives you save at $300,000 each, assuming we cut the death toll by 50%.

Would you pay $300k to give your granny another five years? (or mother, or other relative over ~75)

Seems a fair price to me.
 
Marcus said:
Global death number as of today, 7,905. The tenth leading cause of death in a single country, the US, in 2017 was 47,173. Yes, I know it is early in the epidemic for some countries, but the risk seems way out of proportion with the economic destruction already caused.
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In a sharp toughening of Britain’s approach to the outbreak on Monday, Prime Minister Boris Johnson closed down social life in the world’s fifth largest economy and advised those over 70 with underlying health problems to isolate.

The modelling study, by a team led by Neil Ferguson, a professor of mathematical biology at Imperial College London, used new data gathered from Italy where the infectious disease epidemic has surged in recent weeks.

Comparing the potential impact of the COVID-19 disease epidemic with the devastating flu outbreak of 1918, Ferguson’s team said that with no mitigating measures at all, the outbreak could have caused more than half a million deaths in Britain and 2.2 million in the United States.
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https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-h...britain-to-toughen-its-approach-idUKKBN2141EP
 
Skeptical Greg said:
Are you saying those masks are not available without a physician's clearance?

How is that enforced?
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A lot of employers have that restriction. I guess some people with breathing problems can have problems with them, even getting fluid buildup in the lungs, other people don't wear them properly which can be an issue if you really do need the mask to be safe.

That said, I don't think there is any restriction on general public use, I think in normal times one can buy them from any hardware store.
 
USA short of ventilators?

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/coronavirus-ventilators-supply-manufacture_n_5e6dc4f7c5b6747ef11e8134

Join the club.

I don't actually think that's news, because I doubt there is a single country with the capacity to deal with the number of ventilation-required cases there will be if the epidemic isn't mitigated.

South Korea knew that.

People in every country outside SK should kick their current government out and replace it with one that has two simple things:

Foresight
Common sense

That this whole bloody debacle was 100% avoidable, just check when this thread started. If a bunch of nobodies on the internet could see it, governments have zero excuses.
 
The Atheist said:
What you're doing is valuing the lives you save at $300,000 each, assuming we cut the death toll by 50%.

Would you pay $300k to give your granny another five years? (or mother, or other relative over ~75)
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Yeah, but we don't know how the numbers work out was sorta my point. And I'm especially sure that my granny won't be involved as I no longer have one.

There is the larger question of the dollar value of a human life. People like to say that there is no price on saving human lives, but of course we do it all the time.
 
Don't forget that the politicians at the time were extremely busy grandstanding about Brexit, impeachment, Syria, Iran, etc, etc. (Trump was of course extremely busy playing golf and tweeting.)
 
The Atheist said:
Selfish, not stupid - they know exactly what they're doing.



Just think, if they'd been reading this thread they'd have been ahead of the game.



New Zealand has taken the option of making calming statements while the health services put their hands over their eyes and sing very loudly so they can't hear people clamouring for tests.

We've had a 250% our cases in 24 hours. Only from 8 to 20, but in a US-sized population that would be 600 cases growing to 1500 in one day, and cause for concern.

I cannot believe how out of touch our medical specialists in charge of this are. We have the excellent example of South Korea but are acting more like USA than anyone else.



I don't know that you can make it - I'm referring to commercially-available nappy/diaper soaking powder that you put ion water and soak things in it. Active ingredient is sodium percarbonate at 25% +. Soak two hours should do it.



It does seem so - I reckon the economic damage will be somewhere in the $8-10 trillion range and we might save 20,000,000 lives. Pretty expensive way to prolong the life of a load of old and chronically ill people.

The pragmatist in me says we should let it go and save trillions in future healthcare costs, because the people Covid-19 is killing are all the high-users of health care.
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We're not saving many lives, just flattening the curve, saving the deaths for later. In a really bad case like Italy, some extra lives are lost because of overloaded medical services. I can't see any scenario were we can save 20 million lives though.
 
Marcus said:
https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/282929#heart-disease


https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6


The second link is the one that has already been posted several times, I've gotten in the habit of checking it every day to watch the count.
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Bear in mind that many of those things listed in the top ten causes of death cover things like heart attacks, strokes, accidents and injuries etc...

These are things that are often treated by emergency services and the death toll would presumably be even higher if the emergency services are stretched beyond capacity due to the massive influx of COVID 19 patients.

You have been doing a lot of cherry-picking of data and concluding that there is too much fuss about this disease, but for some reason the healthcare institutions around the world disagree with that conclusion. Why do you think that is?
 
sir drinks-a-lot said:
Yeah, but we don't know how the numbers work out was sorta my point. And I'm especially sure that my granny won't be involved as I no longer have one.
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Me neither - I have no older living relatives, but my wife's parents are 80+ and both have dual chronic disease that puts them in the very likely to die category.

We can assume that an unchecked epidemic will kill ~50 million, so I'm figuring that if we halve that we'd be doing well, but I think we can keep it well under 10% of that if we try.

sir drinks-a-lot said:
There is the larger question of the dollar value of a human life. People like to say that there is no price on saving human lives, but of course we do it all the time.
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\
Sure, or we'd all be bankrupt - that's why there aren't enough ventilators and ICU beds. You don't plan on having this type of outbreak.

And if you turn up to an overcrowded hospital and you're 80 with diabetes, you're worth about $2.50.

Marcus said:
We're not saving many lives, just flattening the curve, saving the deaths for later. In a really bad case like Italy, some extra lives are lost because of overloaded medical services. I can't see any scenario were we can save 20 million lives though.
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China & South Korea have shown you can stop it in its tracks. If you don't do what they did, then yes, millions will die.

India and other large countries will ensure a reservoir for a couple of years, so it may all be futile, but worth a try.
 
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