2019-nCoV / Corona virus Pt 2

[Planigale]

I was right regardless of people getting upset because I described it as 'let the disease run it's course'. This is hardly different and is a very, very bad idea as well. Whether or not this is the 'not crack pot' plan, it is one being bandied about.

The Guardian: Quarantine everyone over 70 is a policy being announced in the UK. Let the young and middle-aged people go out and do their thing to get the virus and build herd immunity.

That's naive. What about the older folks who live in multi-generational households? And what about the fact that every single age bracket dies of this disease? Kill off a small percent, better than closing the bars.

The Guardian: I’m an epidemiologist. When I heard about Britain’s ‘herd immunity’ coronavirus plan, I thought it was satire

The thing is he isn't. He is not a virologist, he is not a medic. He is a scientist who does research on the genetics of antibiotic resistance in bacteria. That he happens to have the title of assistant professor in Epidemiology does not make him an expert on human infectious disease epidemiology and outbreak control nor the mathematical modelling thereof.

 

[Meadmaker]

Not recommended by the FDA.

I did just find a couple of N95 respirator masks in the old garage and brought them up to the house. Not going to get into them unless there's a good reason.

Here's the key sentence from the FDA:

"Surgical masks may also help reduce exposure of your saliva and respiratory secretions to others."

And the FDA statement says "may", but there's no "may" about it. That's why we ought to be wearing masks.

 

[pipelineaudio]

To me, the two biggest anomalies are Japan and Hawaii.

Don't jinx us!

ETA: We just had our first case of probable community spread, though, its a tour guide at Kualoa Ranch would would be in close and often confined contact with tourists from all over especially Japan and China since this all began

 

[dudalb]

"THank God for Brady leaving the Patriots;for time in nearly a week I have somethng to talk about";

Local Sports talk show host.

At least the guy is being honest.

 

[Meridian]

India's numbers are really irrelevant. But UK shows steep decline in new cases. Did they actually stopped testing ?

That was yesterday. 407 new cases today. I'm pretty sure testing slowed down, but it may have sped up again. I think (lost it now) the BBC reported the largest number of daily tests today, at around 6000.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

 

[Rolfe]

In all seriousness, we ought to all be wearing masks when we're out, even if they aren't high quality, hospital grade, masks. After reading, I'm convinced they protect the wearer a little bit, and the people near the wearer a lot.

A scarf across your mouth and nose which will prevent you touching your face, and wash it when you get in, might be as effective. You still need the social distancing though.

 

[The Atheist]

India's numbers are really irrelevant. But UK shows steep decline in new cases. Did they actually stopped testing ?

They made up for it in today's numbers, with a 25% increase.

We'll see that kind of anomaly - Italy did the same a few days back.

Don't jinx us!

ETA: We just had our first case of probable community spread, though, its a tour guide at Kualoa Ranch would would be in close and often confined contact with tourists from all over especially Japan and China since this all began

Your numbers just aren't adding up - you should be in the position Washington State is, but you're not.

I wish I could figure it out, and I bet lots of scientists do too.

Japan is still a huge anomaly as well. I must eat more fish.

 

[dudalb]

Boris announced at some economic measures hinted stronlgy at more drastic measures to come.
Boris did not look happy, he looked like a kid being forced to take bad tasting medicine.

 

[Giordano]

The thing is he isn't. He is not a virologist, he is not a medic. He is a scientist who does research on the genetics of antibiotic resistance in bacteria. That he happens to have the title of assistant professor in Epidemiology does not make him an expert on human infectious disease epidemiology and outbreak control nor the mathematical modelling thereof.

He is actually an Associate Professor (meaning he obtained tenure, not easy to do) of Epidemiology in the Department of Epidemiology, and a faculty member in the Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics at Harvard. He doesn't just happen to hold a title in a department of epidemiology: he is a hard core epidemiologist with extensive training and research in that area. One major focus of his work is on the spread of antibody resistance in bacterial infections of human populations. Another is the dynamics/distributions/changes/spread in the serotypes of different pathogenic bacteria in humans and the consequences of this in regard to immunity and vaccination.

He has already published over 140 publications in these and closely related fields. He is both very successful as a scientist and his expertise is highly relevant to the coronavirus epidemic. He is very much an expert in precisely those fields you dismiss. The fact he studies spread of infectious bacteria versus infectious virus means virtually nothing in terms of the direct relevance of his work for understanding epidemics.

 

[Planigale]

He is actually an Associate Professor (meaning he obtained tenure, not easy to do) of Epidemiology in the Department of Epidemiology, and a faculty member in the Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics at Harvard. He doesn't just happen to hold a title in a department of epidemiology: he is a hard core epidemiologist with extensive training and research in that area. One major focus of his work is on the spread of antibody resistance in bacterial infections of human populations. Another is the dynamics/distributions/changes/spread in the serotypes of different pathogenic bacteria in humans and the consequences of this in regard to immunity and vaccination.

He has already published over 140 publications in these and closely related fields. He is both very successful as a scientist and his expertise is highly relevant to the coronavirus epidemic. He is very much an expert in precisely those fields you dismiss. The fact he studies spread of infectious bacteria versus infectious virus means virtually nothing in terms of the direct relevance of his work for understanding epidemics.

I had a quick look at his publications but perhaps you noticed a relevant one? I didn't see one if you did could you point me towards it?

 

[JeanTate]

Grim numbers (taken from WHO daily situation reports), cumulative reported Covid-19 deaths:

Hubei province: 3085 (15 March) (population ~59 million)
Italy: 1809 (16 March) (population ~60 million)

China: 3218 (16 March) (population ~1.43 billion)
USA: 41 (16 March) (population ~0.33 billion)

Italy's reported cumulative deaths will likely exceed Hubei's by ~this weekend (21/22 March)

The US' will exceed China's ... when?
The answer to that question depends on many things, not least the possibility of a second Covid-19 epidemic in China.

 

[pipelineaudio]

A scarf across your mouth and nose which will prevent you touching your face, and wash it when you get in, might be as effective. You still need the social distancing though.

Id love to see some recomendations for whether or not a scarf would end up sequestering more virii onto your face and increasing the risk of your own infection. Or what exactly we should do.

We have a ton of invasive albizia trees begging to be paperized, so maybe that would work

 

[JeanTate]

I just had a quick search. All I can see is that they intend to publish the models, but presumably not yet.

Just out of interest, how does that compare to other countries?

I don't know.

Some background: when I started to look into this - seems like months ago, but is likely just weeks - I quickly found that the basic models are relatively simple (mathematically) and public (e.g. see Compartmental models in epidemiology^WP). And that papers are pretty open about what models they use, the values of input parameters, etc. I didn't get far in trying to see what models were used by this or that government agency.

An astrophysicist's blog I follow is that of Peter Coles, now based in Ireland. A 16 March blogpost (updated today) is Public Health and Open Science – Updated

 

[The Atheist]

Italy's reported cumulative deaths will likely exceed Hubei's by ~this weekend (21/22 March)

Three days, the 21st. Or 20th if you're in one of those backwards countries where it's still the 20th.

The US' will exceed China's ... when?
The answer to that question depends on many things, not least the possibility of a second Covid-19 epidemic in China.

Hard to say when US will pass China as they're still at the start and have already taken measures it took Italy for too long to take.

I really don't think China's will take off again - they have the place pretty well sewn up so that nobody ever gets close enough to someone else to pick it up. They reckon yesterday's 21 new cases were 1 new inside China and 20 imports.

Id love to see some recomendations for whether or not a scarf would end up sequestering more virii onto your face and increasing the risk of your own infection. Or what exactly we should do.

We have a ton of invasive albizia trees begging to be paperized, so maybe that would work

I think a scarf is a bad idea, because it's a much larger item and therefore more likely to pick up casual droplets in the air.

How about you get some old sheets and cut them size? Sew on ties and use three or four thicknesses, until you think it's thick enough, and presto: washable face masks. For washing, you can stick them in some boiling water for a few minutes, or soak in nappy solution for a couple of hours.

I can't see how that's inferior to poorly-fitting paper masks. Probably better, to my mind.

 

[Nessie]

I work in social care and today a sessional worker arrived to do a shift. She is a university student. As we were waiting to go out and do our rounds, the conversation inevitably came around to cornoavirus and she casually admitted she had been told by her university to self isolate as one of her lecturers had tested positive for the virus. That was last Friday. She was sent home.

I now cannot visit my elderly father. Our work is at risk and we look after a lot of vulnerable people.

I just cannot get over how stupid some people can be.

 

[JeanTate]

Coronavirus: UK changes course amid death toll fears

Quoting the BBC:

"The modelling projected that if the UK did nothing, 81% of people would be infected and 510,000 would die from coronavirus by August.

The mitigation strategy is better, but would still result in about 250,000 deaths and completely overwhelm intensive care in the NHS.

The experience of Italy, and the first cases in the UK, led to this dawning realisation."

And: "The government has always said it is following the science and the science has changed profoundly."

Am I the only one to find this hard to accept?

Did those who built the models not even try to learn from China's experience? They had to wait for hundreds of deaths in Italy before they twigged to the fact that the UK was going to be in for a very rough ride?

 

[Planigale]

I don't know.

Some background: when I started to look into this - seems like months ago, but is likely just weeks - I quickly found that the basic models are relatively simple (mathemically) and public (e.g. see Compartmental models in epidemiology^WP). And that papers are pretty open about what models they use, the values of input parameters, etc. I didn't get far in trying to see what models were used by this or that government agency.

An astrophysicist's blog I follow is that of Peter Coles, now based in Ireland. A 16 March blogpost (updated today) is Public Health and Open Science – Updated

A good source is here.
https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/
This is the Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases from The London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (familiarly known as the trop shop). You can download their code if you want.

 

[Giordano]

I had a quick look at his publications but perhaps you noticed a relevant one? I didn't see one if you did could you point me towards it?

Are you teasing me? Probably more than 90 to 95% are highly relevant.

First, are we literally on the same page? Perhaps you are looking at a non-representative part of his publication list. Here is a list in reverse chronological order that shows off his most recent work first, although the relevance of his pubs stretches back to the very start of hist career some 15 years ago:
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/?term=Hanage

Or perhaps you may not recognize how his dissections of the genetics of different isolates of pathogens in different people represent the cutting edge of epidemiology? These methods, and their contributions to the modeling of the spread of bacteria and viruses, have revolutionized epidemiology at all levels (from the spread of an antibiotic resistant bacterium in a hospital to a worldwide epidemic.

If you don't believe me or a more detailed consideration of his publications yourself, you may wish to consider why he was hired and obtained tenure in a department of epidemiology and membership in a center for communicable disease dynamics. You can even go on line and see how these programs define their areas of study and expertise.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

But even a simple, not so perfect, home made mask would be better than nothing. I saw a youtube video from Hong Kong about how to make your own facemask. You need rubber bands, toilet p...……..never mind.

 

[Giordano]

A good source is here.
https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/
This is the Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases from The London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (familiarly known as the trop shop). You can download their code if you want.

just a caution: most of the manuscripts listed are "in progress" or "under review." These are either incomplete or not yet vetted by peer reviewed.