2019-nCoV / Corona virus Pt 2

[Ivor the Engineer]

And if I have listened to both sides: ignore it and isolate high risk people, or, make every effort to flatten the curve until treatments and vaccines are developed, and I've come to the conclusion the evidence overwhelmingly supports option #2, then what?

Think about it, letting the virus overrun hospitals and cause economic hardship because so many people will be out sick anyway, or, a short term economic disaster that we can recover from? Really? You think option #1 makes sense?

The UK is one of the few countries in the world that has had departments under various restructuring of the healthcare system which have been consulting multidisciplinary experts on this kind of scenario for many, many years.

I have a high degree of confidence that they know what they are doing to deal with the particular set of circumstances we have in the UK. I have a very low degree of confidence that individuals on the internet and single-discipline experts writing articles in newspapers have enough information to pass judgement on the approach currently being taken in the UK.

Unless there is very strong evidence to the contrary, this is the rational worldview people should have. I.e. If your country has a group of experts working on this, trust them to deal with the problem. They will have access to far more information than you can possibly access and have people a lot smarter than you working on the problem in your country.

If we all go round ignoring or second-guessing the advice then this is going to be even more of a disaster. The time for analysis of what worked, what didn't work and what was harmful is at the back-end of this, not at the start.

 

[angrysoba]

The UK is one of the few countries in the world that has had departments under various restructuring of the healthcare system which have been consulting multidisciplinary experts on this kind of scenario for many, many years.

I have a high degree of confidence that they know what they are doing to deal with the particular set of circumstances we have in the UK. I have a very low degree of confidence that individuals on the internet and single-discipline experts writing articles in newspapers have enough information to pass judgement on the approach currently being taken in the UK.

Unless there is very strong evidence to the contrary, this is the rational worldview people should have. I.e. If your country has a group of experts working on this, trust them to deal with the problem. They will have access to far more information than you can possibly access and have people a lot smarter than you working on the problem in your country.

If we all go round ignoring or second-guessing the advice then this is going to be even more of a disaster. The time for analysis of what worked, what didn't work and what was harmful is at the back-end of this, not at the start.

Yes, although some of what they say has been counter-intuitive (and what they have been saying is often reported inaccurately), the UK score very highly on the Global Health Index - second only to the US. The difference between the US and the UK is that the UK government at least seems to be deferring to the experts, and not contradicting them.

In addition, I can see that the UK experts are working hard with the behavioural psychology experts (the "Nudge" Unit), in order to model the behaviour of the population should certain policies be put forward.

Personally, I am still pretty nervous about it, especially given the apparent low-level of testing when compared to South Korea, but I find it annoying when they are dismissed as "crackpots" and their policies are strawmanned as "ignoring" or "just letting the virus take its course".

 

[The Great Zaganza]

A bit more on the administration's attempt to get exclusive access to a vaccine developed by a German company:

The company is called Curevac, and they specialize in mRNA therapies.
Specifically, they claim to have a system with which to deliver even small amounts of mRNA into cells to trigger an effective immuno-response with little side effects.

Because of this, potentially, a vaccine could created quickly, tested on a large scale and production could be scaled quickly.
It is understandable that people would offer the moon to get exclusive rights for something like this.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

You haven’t even listened if you think “ignore it and isolate high risks people” is the option being put forward.

Did you even watch the video?

This is how you described it: "let the virus take its course".

If you have a different description, what is it?

And no, I did not watch the video since that's how you described it. Why should I? Why do you think I need to see a video to understand the options?

 

[Ivor the Engineer]

A bit more on the administration's attempt to get exclusive access to a vaccine developed by a German company:

The company is called Curevac, and they specialize in mRNA therapies.
Specifically, they claim to have a system with which to deliver even small amounts of mRNA into cells to trigger an effective immuno-response with little side effects.

Because of this, potentially, a vaccine could created quickly, tested on a large scale and production could be scaled quickly.
It is understandable that people would offer the moon to get exclusive rights for something like this.

Certain types of people, yes. Others might think such technology would be for all of humanity during a global crisis.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

The UK is one of the few countries in the world that has had departments under various restructuring of the healthcare system which have been consulting multidisciplinary experts on this kind of scenario for many, many years.

I have a high degree of confidence that they know what they are doing to deal with the particular set of circumstances we have in the UK. I have a very low degree of confidence that individuals on the internet and single-discipline experts writing articles in newspapers have enough information to pass judgement on the approach currently being taken in the UK.

Unless there is very strong evidence to the contrary, this is the rational worldview people should have. I.e. If your country has a group of experts working on this, trust them to deal with the problem. They will have access to far more information than you can possibly access and have people a lot smarter than you working on the problem in your country.

If we all go round ignoring or second-guessing the advice then this is going to be even more of a disaster. The time for analysis of what worked, what didn't work and what was harmful is at the back-end of this, not at the start.

Your experts have the same drawbacks as ours, that is political interference in decision making.

 

[Dr.Sid]

I have a high degree of confidence that they know what they are doing to deal with the particular set of circumstances we have in the UK.

IMHO lol.

 

[TurkeysGhost]

Starting to see a trend of right-wing politicians and pundits urging people to ignore social distancing policies. Congressman Devin Nunes (of internet cow suing fame) on cable TV saying now is a great time to get the family out and about. Oklahoma Gov out there bragging about taking his whole family out to a crowded restaurant for dinner.

Right-wing cranks like Sheriff David Clark are going a step further, conflating the social distancing as some vast government conspiracy to exploit the crisis for some nefarious purpose. David Clark explicitly urging people to go into the streets and stay there.

GO INTO THE STREETS FOLKS. Visit bars, restaurants, shopping malls, CHURCHES and demand that your schools re-open. NOW!
If government doesn’t stop this foolishness...STAY IN THE STREETS.
END GOVERNEMNT CONTROL OVER OUR LIVES. IF NOT NOW, WHEN?
THIS IS AN EXPLOITATION OF A CRISIS.

https://twitter.com/SheriffClarke/status/1239320085778571266

The US is reaping what we have sown. The right wing is rife with these conspiracy cranks.

 

[Pixel42]

This is going to be a bumper year for Darwin Award nominations.

 

[TurkeysGhost]

This is going to be a bumper year for Darwin Award nominations.

It'll be hard to establish specific causality. These people will absolutely cause people to die, but odds are good it won't be them or maybe not even someone they are directly linked to.

These people are gleefully forming a link in a long chain that results in suffering and misery for our most vulnerable people. True scumbags.

 

[Ivor the Engineer]

Your experts have the same drawbacks as ours, that is political interference in decision making.

So you think you know more about how to handle the problem than the experts advising the government in the UK?

The video you refused to watch was of one of the experts working on the problem. He did not suggest in any way there had been political interference in the recommendations.

Why would a politician in the UK do such a thing? It would be leaked to the press in a matter of hours. I realise you live in a country with an incredibly inept and corrupt regime at the moment, but there is approximately zero evidence to suggest political pressure has substantially altered the experts advice in the UK.

And finally, please consider the effect your actions might have when you start seeding doubt into the minds of people about the advice they are receiving from people who know more about this than you do.

 

[Matthew Best]

This is how you described it: "let the virus take its course".

If you have a different description, what is it?

And no, I did not watch the video since that's how you described it. Why should I? Why do you think I need to see a video to understand the options?

Wow, that's almost breathtaking in its dishonesty.

What angrysoba actually said was this:

I think people should at least listen to what a particular scientist is saying before they start characterizing them as "a crackpot" who wants to "let the virus take its course".

He didn't describe it as "let the virus take its course". He said almost the opposite - implying that to describe that way would be incorrect and would only be done by someone who hadn't actually listened to what the scientist in question had said.

 

[angrysoba]

This is how you described it: "let the virus take its course".

If you have a different description, what is it?

Jesus F Christ!

Can you not read??????

I did not describe it that way! I was criticizing others who did....

SO you think letting the virus take it course is a good idea?

Could you actually read what I say, please?

I think people should at least listen to what a particular scientist is saying before they start characterizing them as "a crackpot" who wants to "let the virus take its course".

And no, I did not watch the video ...

Then don't criticize its contents!

 

[Pixel42]

I have no doubt the UK scientists gave the politicians information which was as accurate as could be obtained, and a list of options with the pros and cons of each. The politicians then chose the option that best fitted their priorities.

 

[Ivor the Engineer]

I have no doubt the UK scientists gave the politicians information which was as accurate as could be obtained, and a list of options with the pros and cons of each. The politicians then chose the option that best fitted their priorities.

The COBRA committee decided on the course of action, presumably with Boris having the final say if there were disagreement.

If the politicians had chosen a course of action that was on the "bat-**** crazy but it just might work" list of approaches put forward we would know about that by now.

 

[chrispy]

Starting to see a trend of right-wing politicians and pundits urging people to ignore social distancing policies. Congressman Devin Nunes (of internet cow suing fame) on cable TV saying now is a great time to get the family out and about. Oklahoma Gov out there bragging about taking his whole family out to a crowded restaurant for dinner.

Right-wing cranks like Sheriff David Clark are going a step further, conflating the social distancing as some vast government conspiracy to exploit the crisis for some nefarious purpose. David Clark explicitly urging people to go into the streets and stay there.



https://twitter.com/SheriffClarke/status/1239320085778571266

The US is reaping what we have sown. The right wing is rife with these conspiracy cranks.

I had a client the other night (in Guatemala) tell me that coronavirus was made in a lab by USA scientists (just like ebola) so that they can go door to door forcing vaccines on people. Oh, and the national guard is taking over cities. But, hey,, she was able to escape in time. I politely told her that if she wanted to go to a country that didn't **** with people rights she is now in the wrong country. Nutters, all of those righty cranks.

 

[The Great Zaganza]

Certain types of people, yes. Others might think such technology would be for all of humanity during a global crisis.

Indeed.
Especially since registering a vaccine as a protected IP will slow its development and distribution.

 

[Ulf Nereng]

The COBRA committee decided on the course of action, presumably with Boris having the final say if there were disagreement.

If the politicians had chosen a course of action that was on the "bat-**** crazy but it just might work" list of approaches put forward we would know about that by now.

We have to trust that our governments are doing the very best they can in the situation we're in, but at the same time we can't give up our right to question those in power, either. Journalists and media especially must keep doing their jobs in that regard. Maintaining the populaces' trust in the government rests as much upon the government itself as on those reporting on it.

 

[Gord_in_Toronto]

So you think you know more about how to handle the problem than the experts advising the government in the UK?

The video you refused to watch was of one of the experts working on the problem. He did not suggest in any way there had been political interference in the recommendations.

Why would a politician in the UK do such a thing? It would be leaked to the press in a matter of hours. I realise you live in a country with an incredibly inept and corrupt regime at the moment, but there is approximately zero evidence to suggest political pressure has substantially altered the experts advice in the UK.

And finally, please consider the effect your actions might have when you start seeding doubt into the minds of people about the advice they are receiving from people who know more about this than you do.

Same here.

 

[dann]

We have to trust that our governments are doing the very best they can in the situation we're in, but at the same time we can't give up our right to question those in power, either. Journalists and media especially must keep doing their jobs in that regard. Maintaining the populaces' trust in the government rests as much upon the government itself as on those reporting on it.

No, we don't! The best the Danish and Icelandic governments could have done at a much earlier stage would have been to prevent people from going to Tyrol (Austria) and South Tyrol (Italy) in February (Norwegians don't have to go that far to ski, I guess, so I don't know how you guys got it), but the airliners and travel agencies would have protested and claimed that the government was ruining their businesses.
And look at them now!

Her blev de bekræftede tilfælde smittet
Smitteland Antal
Danmark 204
Østrig 291
Italien 62
Spanien 4
Tyskland 2
Iran 1
Holland 1
USA 1
Storbritannien 1
Kroatien 1
Uden for Danmark, smitteland afventer 181
Afventer information 149
Nyeste corona-tal fra Danmark og verden: Så mange er smittede, døde og indlagte (TV2, March 16, 2020)

(For people outside of Scandinavia: The countries where Danes where infected.)