2019-nCoV / Corona virus Pt 2

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theprestige said:
When and why did you lose running water? I totally missed that development.
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We have 7 restaraunts and a dozen other businesses sharing one restroom. This is typical for among the most real expensive estate on the planet Hawaii. I can use it late at night but I wont be able to wash between bands
 
An interesting article from CNN yesterday on asymptomatic transmission.

Infected people without symptoms might be driving the spread of coronavirus more than we realized


A couple of excerpts that caught my attention.

This;

On Tuesday, Dr. Sandra Ciesek, director of the Institute of Medical Virology in Frankfurt, Germany, tested 24 passengers who had just flown in from Israel.

Seven of the 24 passengers tested positive for coronavirus. Four of those had no symptoms, and Ciesek was surprised to find that the viral load of the specimens from the asymptomatic patients was higher than the viral load of the specimens from the three patients who did have symptoms.
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And this;

Early, large-scale studies using mathematical modelling of outbreaks in Tianjin, China, and Singapore in January and February have also found significant amounts of spread by people who had not yet developed symptoms.

Both studies were posted on MedRxiv, a pre-print server founded by Yale University, the medical journal BMJ and Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory in New York. Articles on this server have not been reviewed by the authors' scientific peers.

A study posted Sunday by Belgian and Dutch researchers shows that between 48% and 66% of the 91 people in the Singapore cluster contracted the infection from someone who was pre-symptomatic. Of the 135 people in the Tianjin cluster, between 62% and 77% caught it from someone was pre-symptomatic.
Canadian, Dutch and Singaporean researchers looked at the same outbreaks in Tianjin and Singapore and found that infection was transmitted on average 2.55 days and 2.89 days before symptom onset respectively in each location. "Our analysis would suggest that presymptomatic transmission is pretty commonplace," said the study's lead author, Caroline Colijn, who leads the mathematics, genomics and prediction in infection and evolution research group at Simon Fraser University in British Columbia.
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Has the number of reported cases OUTSIDE China passed the number INSIDE yet?

What about the number of reported deaths?

If not already, when do you predict those days will come?
 
quadraginta said:
An interesting article from CNN yesterday on asymptomatic transmission.

Infected people without symptoms might be driving the spread of coronavirus more than we realized


A couple of excerpts that caught my attention.

This;

​


And this;

​
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See, just what I've been saying. It would not be all over the planet this fast without asymptomatic spread and also without being extremely contagious.

This: "infection was transmitted on average 2.55 days and 2.89 days before symptom onset respectively in each location." puts Trump in the window of infectivity when the Brazilian entourage was spreading the love at Mar-a-lago.

He did not look well today.


This is what happens when people around Trump don't want to tell him the truth because he gets angry. The result is Fauci and the CDC top brass passing downplaying down to the news and the rest of the public health infrastructure. Instead of saying, we don't know, which was the correct thing to say, they repeatedly told people there were few if any silent spreaders. And people acted on that bad information.
 
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pipelineaudio said:
We have 7 restaraunts and a dozen other businesses sharing one restroom. This is typical for among the most real expensive estate on the planet Hawaii. I can use it late at night but I wont be able to wash between bands
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One restroom for 19 businesses doesn't seem like any federal or state guideline I've ever heard of.

One restroom with running water seems drastically insufficient for 7 restaurants. Don't your restaurants have at least one running water sink each in their kitchens?
 
JeanTate said:
Has the number of reported cases OUTSIDE China passed the number INSIDE yet?

What about the number of reported deaths?

If not already, when do you predict those days will come?
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Known cases outside of China exceeded known cases inside China today. 81.7k outside China, 81k in China. 3203 deaths in China so far, 6065 deaths total. So, China still has more than half of the fatalities so far, but not for much longer.

Assuming the numbers are accurate, I think this is all pretty much general estimates right now, probably erring on the low side.
 
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Mobird, selfish, smart, stupid?
Although our state has only had a couple cases so far, it seems inevitable that the virus will hit. As one in a moderate-risk group, I have to wonder, would it be more practical to get infected sooner?

That way I could get treatment before hospitals become overcrowded (assuming I'd need that level). It would help to soften the bump, being on the early end of it. On a positive side, assuming I get through unscathed, I'd be immune to further infection. (I know there is some question about that.) Then I could actually be of service and among/helping the infected masses if it comes to that. On the negative side, assuming the worst -- well, it would have happened anyway.

I'm just coming off six or so weeks of near-isolation (living alone), having had a hip replacement operation. Being on pain meds (narcotics) I could not drive anywhere. I have occasionally had help but my family and friends are so spread out it's not really convenient for anyone to stop by often. I don't relish the thought of having to hole up for another several weeks or months until the crisis passes (we could never be sure) or a vaccine is developed (a year or more).

Of course once it warms up, I will be spending a lot of time in my backyard, and have plenty to keep me occupied otherwise. But I'd rather do it from the point of relief (having had it) than anxiety (expecting to get it).

For now, I think I'd like to just carry on as normal, taking the recommended precautions.
 
theprestige said:
One restroom for 19 businesses doesn't seem like any federal or state guideline I've ever heard of.

One restroom with running water seems drastically insufficient for 7 restaurants. Don't your restaurants have at least one running water sink each in their kitchens?
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Unless your business has more than 25 employees you are not required to have a restroom. Doesnt matter if its a hundred businesses with 24 employees each in the complex The management of this property is actually doing us a favor by having the one restroom. Most will not do even that

The restaraunts have running water for their sinks, but we don't have plumbing on this side
 
Skeptic Ginger said:
See, just what I've been saying. It would not be all over the planet this fast without asymptomatic spread and also without being extremely contagious.

This: "infection was transmitted on average 2.55 days and 2.89 days before symptom onset respectively in each location." puts Trump in the window of infectivity when the Brazilian entourage was spreading the love at Mar-a-lago.

He did not look well today.


This is what happens when people around Trump don't want to tell him the truth because he gets angry. The result is Fauci and the CDC top brass passing downplaying down to the news and the rest of the public health infrastructure. Instead of saying, we don't know, which was the correct thing to say, they repeatedly told people there were few if any silent spreaders. And people acted on that bad information.
Click to expand...

You can tell Trump anything, but it doesn’t mean he’ll listen or understand. It was clear at the CDC press conference that he didn’t comprehend anything other than people sucking up to him.
 
Ok, so Czech Republic now has general quarantine, with 294 cases and no deaths so far.
Meanwhile UK seems to go different way. The don't want to limit movement of people at all, they just want to isolate people above 70.
Which is great ! It will be very interesting to compare results of such different approaches. Except if our approach doesn't work, we will end up with unnecessary economic loss, while if UK's one won't work, they will end up with unnecessary loss of life.
It might prove useful for the next pandemic though.
 
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