2019-nCoV / Corona virus Pt 2

[Red Baron Farms]

It looks to me like we could be under lockdowns for a year and even then it wouldn't work, so I don't see any easy answers without vaccine or drugs, and they're both zero at the moment.

Canadians claim they have a vaccine already.

 

[Giordano]

Still scary.
And from an economic view, this is going to crash the markets on Monday. A lockdown might be necessary, but the economic damage will be severe. Recession a deadl certainty now.

Here are some interactive graphs that really illustrate the necessity of strong interventions early, before the magnitude of the infection appears to laypeople to “require” them.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive...l?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage

And we still have time to significantly reduce the infection and death rate.
The economic damage will be even greater with each delay.

 

[portlandatheist]

https://nypost.com/2020/03/14/retired-uk-doctor-becomes-youtube-sensation-for-coronavirus-advice/
I've just watched the most recent video from this retired UK doctor, some really good material:

 

[Ivor the Engineer]

Canadians claim they have a vaccine already.

The UK has a vaccine and is rolling it out now. It has side effects similar to coronvirus and an individual is fully protected after 14 days. Coverage is patchy at the moment, but it's expected to have been administered to more than 50% of the population in a few months.

 

[pipelineaudio]

I see places recommendationing vinegar for cleaning. Will that be effective? We’re out of alcohol and bleach. There’s listerine and vinegar left

 

[marting]

Here are some interactive graphs that really illustrate the necessity of strong interventions early, before the magnitude of the infection appears to laypeople to “require” them.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive...l?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage

And we still have time to significantly reduce the infection and death rate.
The economic damage will be even greater with each delay.

Nice to see this. Finally some discussion of why early, strong mitigation can have big payoffs. Not just flattening the curve but big reductions in deaths. I posted my own take on this in the black swan thread.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

I see places recommendationing vinegar for cleaning. Will that be effective? We’re out of alcohol and bleach. There’s listerine and vinegar left

Soap works for hands and detergent for counters and clothes.

Listerine doesn't have enough alcohol in it.

They use vinegar in HongKong and China but I haven't seen anything about effectiveness. I suggest you search on line for the science.

 

[pipelineaudio]

I don’t have running water where I need to do this. Normally I use 91% alcohol a few times a week. Not sure what to do now. Ran out of alcohol a few weeks ago

 

[Darat]

The UK has a vaccine and is rolling it out now. It has side effects similar to coronvirus and an individual is fully protected after 14 days. Coverage is patchy at the moment, but it's expected to have been administered to more than 50% of the population in a few months.

Are you one of Dominic Cummings new recruits?

 

[casebro]

Then there is this:

Palm Beach Post: Coronavirus in Florida: More visitors to Mar-a-Lago test positive



The proverbial **** is about to hit the fan.

Or not. When a significant group tests positive, and the worst case in the grpoup is merely a cold, where is your shatted fan then? We are at the worst point of lack of knowledge right now. More knowledge due at any moment.

A thought on "high risk groups": Hospitals/rest homes might be loaded with hospice patients. People with mere weeks to live. A bee sting or toe nail fungus can do them in. Or the common cold.

 

[casebro]

Hey SG, maybe you know: How many of the general public test positive already, and always have?

 

[The Atheist]

Canadians claim they have a vaccine already.

'

Claims are cheap - got any evidence?

Coverage is patchy at the moment, but it's expected to have been administered to more than 50% of the population in a few months.

Again, do you have evidence for that? I know a UK crowd is about to start human trials, but a best-case scenario would see it going into use in about 6 months.

I see places recommendationing vinegar for cleaning. Will that be effective? We’re out of alcohol and bleach. There’s listerine and vinegar left

Almost certainly not. No hydrogen perxide available? People usually go for chlorine bleach, but hydrogen peroxide works just as well.

Nice to see this. Finally some discussion of why early, strong mitigation can have big payoffs. Not just flattening the curve but big reductions in deaths. I posted my own take on this in the black swan thread.

I'll buy lockdowns slowing infections, but what next? I remain totally unconvinced it wouldn't break out again as soon as kids go back to school.

 

[The Atheist]

A thought on "high risk groups": Hospitals/rest homes might be loaded with hospice patients. People with mere weeks to live.

The wide majority of deaths in China & Italy were not in care.

Hey SG, maybe you know: How many of the general public test positive already, and always have?

Zero.

 

[pipelineaudio]

There’s tons of hydrogen peroxide here. I thought upthread it said it doesn’t work

 

[novaphile]

I don’t have running water where I need to do this. Normally I use 91% alcohol a few times a week. Not sure what to do now. Ran out of alcohol a few weeks ago

Running water is very easy to achieve.

A twenty litre container with a tap on it, can be placed on a bench or tailgate etc. Indoor, you just put a bucket under it to catch drips, or set it up above a sink.

I have two of those, that I use when camping, or more recently when I set up community stalls which handle food. (Hand washing facilities are mandatory in Australia if you are selling food anywhere).

 

[The Atheist]

NZ is about to have our own Diamond Princess moment. (But only Golden)

This is after the passengers have been wandering all over NZ in the past few days.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/he...p-passenger-in-akaroa-canterbury-being-tested

Quite how we're going to deal with 5000 passengers and crew I have no idea. Stewart Island looks a good place to send them by my estimation.

 

[Armitage72]

I see places recommendationing vinegar for cleaning. Will that be effective? We’re out of alcohol and bleach. There’s listerine and vinegar left

A quick search of databases shows vinegar only being used as an active ingredient in weed killers. There's no indication that it's effective as an antimicrobial. It's found in peroxyacetic acid based antimicrobials, but that's to maintain the equilibrium between paa, acetic acid, and hydrogen peroxide.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

I don’t have running water where I need to do this. Normally I use 91% alcohol a few times a week. Not sure what to do now. Ran out of alcohol a few weeks ago

How about wearing washable gloves?

 

[The Atheist]

I just had a funny thought - NZ is looking like being hit by a cyclone on Monday night & Tuesday. Normally that would be big news and lots of alerts to move away from rivers.

Not raising an eyebrow right now - people have bigger fish to fry.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

Or not. When a significant group tests positive, and the worst case in the grpoup is merely a cold, where is your shatted fan then? We are at the worst point of lack of knowledge right now. More knowledge due at any moment.

A thought on "high risk groups": Hospitals/rest homes might be loaded with hospice patients. People with mere weeks to live. A bee sting or toe nail fungus can do them in. Or the common cold.

1) There are plenty of high risk older folks in this group.

2) An outbreak at Mar-a-lago would be very embarrassing to incompetrump.

3) And you're not thinking this through. All those people with mild cases will infect others. Mar-a-lago will be another ground zero for a large cluster.