2019-nCoV / Corona virus Pt 2

[Ivor the Engineer]

Is there really a good reason to "suspect" that? Spring is on the verge of being sprung and I don't see any reason to think we're even close to the peak of infectious.

Maybe "hope" is a better word?

I believe the plan in the UK is to have the peak over in the next 2-3 months.

There were 150 new cases yesterday in the UK and 300 today I think. If the number of cases carry on accelerating at that rate the peak will be here fairly soon!

ETA: But yes, every countries' strategy depends on luck to some extent.

 

[The Atheist]

I think the unfortunate reality is that there is no realistic strategy that could be implemented that would significantly change the risk to people who need personal care from other people and are particularly vulnerable to the disease.

We want this thing mostly over by autumn so we don't face coronavirus + flu in 2020-2021.

I'm beginning to think we should actually take a pragmatic approach and let it go and what happens happens.

So, hospitals get crushed? Those who die will be dead, the epidemic will end and there will be the following benefits:

Huge savings in care costs for people with chronic diseases.
Massive increase in vacancies in age care facilities, leading to price cuts.
Enormous numbers of properties hitting the market, enabling a widespread reduction in prices and rents.
Far fewer disgusting old scroats who have drifted further and further to the right as they age.
Huge reduction in hospital admissions for age-related disease, freeing up space for elective surgery. (in countries with UHC)
Huge reduction in CO2 emissions consequent with a lot of high-wealth people not travelling through being dead.

Instead, we're creating an economic disaster that might slow it down, but won't make it go away. It will keep cropping up.

As I watch plane after plane flying in and out of our main airport, I can't see any way the disease can be erased, like SARS or Ebola, so we may as well take the pain and move on.

 

[The Atheist]

I believe the plan in the UK is to have the peak over in the next 2-3 months.

That is the apparent plan, but it's nonsense.

A best case scenario for UK would be 40% of people getting it and only 1% of them needing intensive care.

That's 264,000 ICU beds, for an average of two weeks.

I do not believe the NHS - or any other country's health systems - can deal with that kind of case load, and that's a very optimistic scenario against the official line.

(The fact that if 40% of people are getting it and that's going to include health workers, who aren't immune either, so lots of them will be off work sick isn't worth mentioning.)

 

[Babbylonian]

I believe the plan in the UK is to have the peak over in the next 2-3 months.

There were 150 new cases yesterday in the UK and 300 today I think. If the number of cases carry on accelerating at that rate the peak will be here fairly soon!

Well, yeah, I guess if it carries on accelerating it will peak sooner than if it didn't (pretty obvious in a finite population), but...what does that really mean? Does it mean "whew, it peaked at a manageable number of cases and killed a relative few" or "****, 90% of the population has contracted it and thousands are dying from a combination of advanced age, preexisting health problems, and our inability to accommodate so many people with our existing health care system?"

 

[Babbylonian]

That is the apparent plan, but it's nonsense.

A best case scenario for UK would be 40% of people getting it and only 1% of them needing intensive care.

That's 264,000 ICU beds, for an average of two weeks.

I do not believe the NHS - or any other country's health systems - can deal with that kind of case load, and that's a very optimistic scenario against the official line.

(The fact that if 40% of people are getting it and that's going to include health workers, who aren't immune either, so lots of them will be off work sick isn't worth mentioning.)

Exactly. Of course governments are planning for the infections to peak soon, because if the peak doesn't come [relatively] soon then people are going to die who wouldn't have if their health care system was better, or if their governments would have convinced them to take the disease more seriously and be more proactive in trying to avoid infection.

 

[TellyKNeasuss]

I'm going to show my ignorance (stupidity?) with this request for an explanation. I keep reading predictions from people being portrayed as experts that 10's of millions of Americans (and hundreds of millions of people in other countries) will get covid19 and that it's possible that over a million Americans (and many more in other countries) will die. Yet even in Wuhan, where the government took no action for weeks, less than 1 percent of the people were infected. So I'm looking for an explanation of why what we've experienced so far is apparently only the warm-up for the real crisis.

 

[crescent]

I'm going to show my ignorance (stupidity?) with this request for an explanation. I keep reading predictions from people being portrayed as experts that 10's of millions of Americans (and hundreds of millions of people in other countries) will get covid19 and that it's possible that over a million Americans (and many more in other countries) will die. Yet even in Wuhan, where the government took no action for weeks, less than 1 percent of the people were infected. So I'm looking for an explanation of why what we've experienced so far is apparently only the warm-up for the real crisis.

One thing to think of is that China still has a pretty strongly authoritarian government and the Chinese public seems to accept that. When they finally decided to crack down on movement and public crowding, they cracked down very hard. Few governments have the ability to do that or the public willing to accept it.

That said, I don't think the worst case scenarios will actually happen. But there is a very real chance the the various governments of the world will get pretty far behind the curve and struggle catch up. Few of them can take the sort of strong-arm steps that the Chinese government can.



ETA: In other words, China had success with stopping the spread because China did all the things everyone else is resisting. Now everyone else uses China's success as a reason to NOT do the things that made China successful.

 

[Babbylonian]

I'm going to show my ignorance (stupidity?) with this request for an explanation. I keep reading predictions from people being portrayed as experts that 10's of millions of Americans (and hundreds of millions of people in other countries) will get covid19 and that it's possible that over a million Americans (and many more in other countries) will die. Yet even in Wuhan, where the government took no action for weeks, less than 1 percent of the people were infected. So I'm looking for an explanation of why what we've experienced so far is apparently only the warm-up for the real crisis.

Because there has been no success at containment in the US so far. Hell, Fox News (or at least one of the dummies on their morning show) told people that this is "the best time to fly" because relatively few people are doing so. This despite the CDC (and WHO and every other doctor with half a damn brain) advising the exact opposite.

The way through this is with people knowing enough to take precautions and we have a lot of evidence that people in the US who are not infected continue to equate this with the flu and thus aren't motivated to change their behavior. Even when they get sick, without the right motivation, we are going to have a lot of people assume that they couldn't possibly have something serious, "it's just a cold/flu," so they're going to go to work and infect everyone else there.

It's past time to stop thinking happy shiny thoughts and get with the program. Stay home if you can and only leave to get essentials. If you have to work, give others as much space as you can and follow the basic precautions of hand washing, not touching your face, etc. If you have any cold/flu/COVID symptoms, absolutely stay home. Get deliveries of essentials if possible and have the person drop the deliveries at your door. If you feel you have to see a doctor, call ahead and tell them your symptoms so that they can either be ready to isolate you or refer you somewhere that can happen. If you must go out while symptomatic, wear a mask - it might be of questionable actual efficacy (most masks won't stop the virus) but it could at least alert people to give you space because you're sick.

It's possible to reduce the spread of this illness, but I have no confidence that it will actually happen until the pandemic becomes unmanageable.

 

[portlandatheist]

I'm beginning to think we should actually take a pragmatic approach and let it go and what happens happens.

So, hospitals get crushed? Those who die will be dead, the epidemic will end and there will be the following benefits:

Huge savings in care costs for people with chronic diseases.
Massive increase in vacancies in age care facilities, leading to price cuts.
Enormous numbers of properties hitting the market, enabling a widespread reduction in prices and rents.
Far fewer disgusting old scroats who have drifted further and further to the right as they age.
Huge reduction in hospital admissions for age-related disease, freeing up space for elective surgery. (in countries with UHC)
Huge reduction in CO2 emissions consequent with a lot of high-wealth people not travelling through being dead.

Instead, we're creating an economic disaster that might slow it down, but won't make it go away. It will keep cropping up.

As I watch plane after plane flying in and out of our main airport, I can't see any way the disease can be erased, like SARS or Ebola, so we may as well take the pain and move on.

This is crazy talk.

 

[pipelineaudio]

Also, with a large Polynesian population - and I'm projecting from our Polynesian population here - I imagine health indices for them aren't great and they have a lot of T2 diabetes?

We seem to come in two forms: very athletic or extremely morbidly obese with all the health conditions that come along with it

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

... Instead, we're creating an economic disaster that might slow it down, but won't make it go away. It will keep cropping up.....

Don't know about New Zealand, but elsewhere it is a lot less costly what we are doing than having to do the same thing because everyone is home sick or swamping the medical services.

There are already promising treatments underdevelopment. No reason to let everyone get it.

 

[ProBonoShill]

I believe this is the key in that story, "and grow copies". Because the virus has been isolated back in Dec in China.


Maybe the reporter doesn't understand that.

Thanks for the clarification.

We seldom agree, but I just wanted to say I appreciate all the coherent info and explanations you've provided in this thread.

Cheers.

 

[Fast Eddie B]

This is crazy talk.

To be fair, I heard very similar sentiments during the Black Death.

 

[calebprime]

faciendum erit, Thy Will be done. On our earth as it is in your non-existent, ironic Heaven. The Atheist has Spoken.

Today is a good day to die.

 

[The Atheist]

So I'm looking for an explanation of why what we've experienced so far is apparently only the warm-up for the real crisis.

That's exactly why I keep saying we're missing a very - maybe the most - important piece of the puzzle.

Given the people who left Wuhan prior to the lockdown, and the number of cases elsewhere in China before it as well, we should all be Europe by now.

But we aren't.

NZ, Japan & Hawaii have done basically nothing. Why are we not swamped in corpses?

I can only point to the weather again as a suspect, and that doesn't quite fit anyway.

Because there has been no success at containment in the US so far....

It's possible to reduce the spread of this illness, but I have no confidence that it will actually happen until the pandemic becomes unmanageable.

That's exactly how I see it.

We seem to come in two forms: very athletic or extremely morbidly obese with all the health conditions that come along with it

Exactly the same as our Pasifika population.

All those T2 diabetes sufferers should have been dying. How has it missed them?

Don't know about New Zealand, but elsewhere it is a lot less costly what we are doing than having to do the same thing because everyone is home sick or swamping the medical services.

I think I can make a very strong economic case to say you're wrong, so if you want to pursue that, bring it to the economics thread on the disease.

Economics is one of my strong points and I think it's exactly the opposite - the effects will be much greater and last much longer with the efforts we're undertaking across the world.

There are already promising treatments underdevelopment. No reason to let everyone get it.

We'll have a very good idea of where the treatments are within the next few days - Monday/Tuesday is my guess.

The flip side of that coin is that - as I think you mentioned way back - that might just create viral resistance to the drug and we end up with a worse problem.

 

[a_unique_person]

I'm going to show my ignorance (stupidity?) with this request for an explanation. I keep reading predictions from people being portrayed as experts that 10's of millions of Americans (and hundreds of millions of people in other countries) will get covid19 and that it's possible that over a million Americans (and many more in other countries) will die. Yet even in Wuhan, where the government took no action for weeks, less than 1 percent of the people were infected. So I'm looking for an explanation of why what we've experienced so far is apparently only the warm-up for the real crisis.

China has the ability to take actions that only a totalitarian country can and Asian culture is markedly different to western and particularly American culture about the need for the greater social good. People were reportedly confined to blocks of units with their doors welded shut, total shutdowns were implemented for all industries, whole hospitals were built in a week. Think of America doing any of that.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

That's exactly why I keep saying we're missing a very - maybe the most - important piece of the puzzle.

Given the people who left Wuhan prior to the lockdown, and the number of cases elsewhere in China before it as well, we should all be Europe by now.

But we aren't.

NZ, Japan & Hawaii have done basically nothing. Why are we not swamped in corpses?

I can only point to the weather again as a suspect, and that doesn't quite fit anyway.



That's exactly how I see it.



Exactly the same as our Pasifika population.

All those T2 diabetes sufferers should have been dying. How has it missed them?



I think I can make a very strong economic case to say you're wrong, so if you want to pursue that, bring it to the economics thread on the disease.

Economics is one of my strong points and I think it's exactly the opposite - the effects will be much greater and last much longer with the efforts we're undertaking across the world.



We'll have a very good idea of where the treatments are within the next few days - Monday/Tuesday is my guess.

The flip side of that coin is that - as I think you mentioned way back - that might just create viral resistance to the drug and we end up with a worse problem.

I did not say that. If I did you are taking it out of context.

Not sure why you aren't keeping up on the development of anti-viral treatments. There are several in the pipeline.

 

[The Atheist]

I did not say that. If I did you are taking it out of context.

Sure, it might have been someone else, too. I'm not going to try to search through this to find it. The point is, viral drug resistance is a real thing, and it might make matters worse.

Not sure why you aren't keeping up on the development of anti-viral treatments. There are several in the pipeline.

Eh? Maybe you missed all the posts I've made about the Remdesivir, chloroquine and other treatments in the mass of posts, but I'd say I'm well ahead of most people in knowing where antivirals relating to Covid-19 are at.

 

[Tsukasa Buddha]

My state just closed all K-12 schools for the month. The state universities are extending Spring Break a week, then switching to 100% online. My classes are already online, so luckily it doesn't affect me that much. The Archdiocese also stopped Mass and closed Catholic schools.

I wonder if the markets have priced in the impact this will have. Who is going to be watching these kids?

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

Oh lordy, this is precious:

KTLA: Brazilian official who recently met Trump at Mar-a-Lago has coronavirus; president does not plan to get tested

Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro’s communications director, Fábio Wajngarten, tested positive just days after traveling with Bolsonaro to a meeting with Trump and senior aides in Florida. ...

Wajngarten joined Bolsonaro on a three-day trip to the U.S. and on Saturday was at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago club, where he posted a photo of himself posing beside Trump. A video from the event also showed him standing directly behind both presidents as they addressed a crowd. Bolsonaro and Wajngarten later attended a birthday party for Kimberly Guilfoyle, who is dating the president’s son Donald Trump Jr.
The meeting also included Trump’s daughter Ivanka Trump, son-in-law Jared Kushner, Trump’s personal lawyer Rudy Giuliani, Brazil’s foreign minister Ernesto Araujo and Bolsonaro’s son Eduardo, who is a federal lawmaker, among others. Vice President Mike Pence went to Mar-a-Lago that evening.

No one seems to be asking about the safety of the staff at Mar-a-lago. Drivers of Bolsonaro and Wajngarten, people at the airport.... maybe others.