2019-nCoV / Corona virus Pt 2

[marting]

Just another way the US is”exceptional”. Things that work in other parts of the world can’t possibly work there.

Yes, the USA is exceptional if not in the sense the word is normally used.

 

[The Atheist]

Does it just ' seem' to you, or do you actually have an example of this?

Well, we know for sure that it knocks over oldies like flies and leaves most young people fairly unaffected.

I think the progress in every country shows that it bubbles away unnoticed - 6 weeks known in USA - and spreads cases around, but it's not until it hits a cluster of old people that the medical trouble starts. By that time, the number of infections are huge, because of the long lead time before symptoms show up.

It's a perfectly designed virus for human transmission. (I do mean designed metaphorically)

Trump is conflating checking people's temps at the airport with "testing".

So is India, and has been the entire time.

I'd love to know what the facts about India are, but we have no idea.

I'm not seeing the same criticism of India as China took. Maybe when it's killed a million or so Indians?

They didn't have any more warning. They don't have a stronger economy. They don't have...….anything that we don't have. What gives?

They dealt with SARS, and despite page 1 of the first version of this thread, this little bastard has a lot of similarities with SARS. (it's even called SARS-CoV-2) In fact, the only difference seems to be the death rate - same symptoms, same causing pneumonia, and according to radiologists, the CT scams even look the same: like someone sprinkled shards of glass in your lungs.

SARS taught SK that early action, widespread testing and enforced quarantine stops the spread. They'll have their little outbreaks, but by staying on top of it, they'll keep the mortality to about 1%, mainly because their hospital systems will cope with it easily.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

Sophie Trudeau's test is positive per Canadian National News just now.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

What the heck is wrong with this country? I heard some guy on the radio last night saying we have all of the best medical professionals. Seems to me South Korea must have something we don't.

They didn't have any more warning. They don't have a stronger economy. They don't have...….anything that we don't have. What gives?

One word, incompetrump.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

About church, I asked a Spanish friend of mine if Church and communion could be responsible for the large numbers we are seeing in Italy, Spain and France. He reckons churchgoing has really gone down in Spain in recent years so doubts it.

Anecdotal of course, but that’s FWIW.

As I noted, deadrose had a better hypothesis, Carnival.

 

[alfaniner]

Disneyland (CA), Disney World, and Universal Studios (both FL) closed until April.

I have to wonder how Gator World is going to handle those 2+ million extra visitors...

 

[The Atheist]

Sophie Trudeau's test is positive per Canadian National News just now.

Jesus, if so many politicians have it, it must be absolutely everywhere.

This is going to get ugly very quickly. The threshold for going ballistic seems to be when it hits 100 or so cases, which means there are probably 10,000 more who aren't showing symptoms yet.

Wow, do we ever need some good news on the treatment front.

I think we should see some preliminary results after 15 March.

 

[GraculusTheGreenBird]

China’s 1st Covid-19 case traced back to November 17

Government records suggest first person infected with new disease may have been a Hubei resident aged 55, but ‘patient zero’ has yet to be confirmed.

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/soc...nas-first-confirmed-covid-19-case-traced-back

Cases continued to grow, until December 15, the total number of infections stood at 27, which was when we started to hear the first news reports. At this point, the Chinese authorities already new it was human transmissible, but didn't report that fact until late January, which helped the spread enormously.

 

[portlandatheist]

Sophie Trudeau's test is positive per Canadian National News just now.

We were just speaking yesterday about how politicians are in a very high-risk group for this. Many more to come, I hope her husband is not one of them.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

Jesus, if so many politicians have it, it must be absolutely everywhere.

This is going to get ugly very quickly. The threshold for going ballistic seems to be when it hits 100 or so cases, which means there are probably 10,000 more who aren't showing symptoms yet.

Wow, do we ever need some good news on the treatment front.

I think we should see some preliminary results after 15 March.

Pretty sure more than Trump has been in denial that it could affect anyone but the little people.

Not that I think Trudeau is like that, he's taken the pandemic very seriously. But they don't practice social distancing.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

We were just speaking yesterday about how politicians are in a very high-risk group for this. Many more to come, I hope her husband is not one of them.

Given how contagious the virus is, it's highly unlikely he won't be.

 

[The Atheist]

Cases continued to grow, until December 15, the total number of infections stood at 27, which was when we started to hear the first news reports. At this point, the Chinese authorities already new it was human transmissible, but didn't report that fact until late January, which helped the spread enormously.

That sounds right.

To their credit, they did move quickly once it had been established.

Just as a guide to how well they did once they got started:

Italy right now is showing 1 death for every 59,000 people, and they have plenty more to go.

China is sitting on 1 death for every 437,000 people.

South Korea has had 1 death for every 750,000 people.

Countries outside of China have only themselves to blame for not doing their jobs.

 

[GraculusTheGreenBird]

DIY Hand Sanitizer

If you can't get hold of sanitizer, you can easily make your own. We learned this in Hong Kong during January when everything sold out for a month or so.

After some experimentation, I found a mixture of around 15% Aloe Vera gel and the rest high strength (70 to 75%+) alcohol mimics the consistency of the best selling brands nicely.

The gel helps it spread evenly, stops unnecessary dripping and allows it to remain on the hands longer before it evaporates.

Shaken, not stirred. I added a bit of Old Spice for a pleasant aroma.

If you can't get hold of medicinal alcohol, I imagine high strength Everclear would do just as well. But low strength Vodka at 40% would be less effective, the recommendation seems to be 75%.

And Hand Sanitizer in general should be a last resort, when you don't have access to soap and water that will be more effective.

A good tip is to clean your phone and hands immediately you come in from outside. Its easy to forget that your phone gets contaminated just as much as your hands, and washing your hands and then picking up your phone simply re-contaminates your hands.

 

[Solitaire]

Hm.

I don't have any hand sanitizer. I wonder if gloves will work.

Maybe I could nuke the virus in the microwave for minute.

 

[GraculusTheGreenBird]

That sounds right.

To their credit, they did move quickly once it had been established.

They did indeed. But the Chinese government and its policies was entirely responsible for the massive spread in the first place.

They actively suppressed that an outbreak was taking place. They lied about the evidence of human transmission.

Knowing that, on 18th January they allowed a massive community banquet numbering over 40,000 people to take place in Wuhan!

Two days after they finally admitted it was human transmissible, they continued to hold a Lunar New Year dance performance attended by senior officials from all across Hubei. Amazingly, state media reported that the performers, some with runny noses and feeling unwell "overcame the fear of pneumonia, winning praise from the leaders."

So those officials then spread it all across Hubei, and then the rest of China.

By the time they realised it was out of control, they moved to shut Wuhan down, a sensible move. But announced it 2 days in advance, so 5 million people managed to leave before the lockdown, again helping it to spread around China and the world.

So they screwed it up, big time, and the Chinese government's culture of media control, suppression of unwelcome information and top down leadership is responsible for the initial massive outbreak in China.

 

[angrysoba]

As I noted, deadrose had a better hypothesis, Carnival.

My own hypothesis is this...comparing countries like South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, and Hong Kong, on the one hand, with Southern European countries on the other.

- I think Japan falls somewhere in between the two. They have taken some drastic steps such as closing all schools, and in Hokkaido requested the entire population to remain indoors during weekends, closing of theme parks, museums and zoos, etc... practicing social distancing.

Early and rigourous testing, very fast tracking of the movements of those infected, informative websites including a lot of information about infected people, more compliant population, Cultural practices of distancing?

There could be loads of factors. On the other hand...

Italy, and very soon Spain and France have populations that are not taking this seriously, people who are fleeing “red zones”, nobody wearing masks, continuing to gather together in large groups, poor to non-existent testing.

Carnival is one example of congregating in large groups, but there have been many others.

 

[The Atheist]

... closing all schools...

I'm sure that's the biggie. Kids don't do social distancing and couldn't if they wanted to. Given they are most likely to be asymptomatic, or nearly so, I really think they're playing a big part in the spread.

Says the bloke with kids at two different schools...

 

[JeanTate]

They did indeed. But the Chinese government and its policies was entirely responsible for the massive spread in the first place.

They actively suppressed that an outbreak was taking place. They lied about the evidence of human transmission.

Knowing that, on 18th January they allowed a massive community banquet numbering over 40,000 people to take place in Wuhan!

Two days after they finally admitted it was human transmissible, they continued to hold a Lunar New Year dance performance attended by senior officials from all across Hubei. Amazingly, state media reported that the performers, some with runny noses and feeling unwell "overcame the fear of pneumonia, winning praise from the leaders."

So those officials then spread it all across Hubei, and then the rest of China.

By the time they realised it was out of control, they moved to shut Wuhan down, a sensible move. But announced it 2 days in advance, so 5 million people managed to leave before the lockdown, again helping it to spread around China and the world.

So they screwed it up, big time, and the Chinese government's culture of media control, suppression of unwelcome information and top down leadership is responsible for the initial massive outbreak in China.

Worse: SARS was rough, and its handling revealed many shortcomings etc.

IIRC, there were some pretty thorough reviews, and contributions/recommendations made, e.g. to the WHO. Many of which were adopted as guidelines etc.

Despite this, the painfully arrived at lessons learned were not followed.

One such: markets where wildlife was sold, slaughtered, eaten, etc. “Conservation farms” were permitted, but poorly regulated (if at all).

 

[Meadmaker]

One word, incompetrump.

Since I want to keep this thread for information instead of that guy, I'll have more to say over in the Trump/opportunity thread, but the short answer is you're absolutely correct.

 

[Puppycow]

Tom Hanks has it.