2019-nCoV / Corona virus Pt 2

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novaphile said:
On the news last night, it was remarked that Australia has processed more Coronavirus tests that the USA.

I haven't been able to track down the source that sparked this remark, but the number of people tested was something like 5,000.

Given our population (approximately 25 million people), I'm hoping that this is not true, because it would indicate that the USA has really dropped the ball.

The only figures I can find for the USA suggest approximately 1,000 people tested two weeks ago. So I'm hoping that it was just a temporary statistical anomaly that was reported.
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This from a news report today (note the distinction between Ntests and Npatients):

“ The blunt acknowledgment came as the CDC reported it had tested just over 11,000 specimens for the virus so far, far fewer than other nations, especially given that multiple specimens are needed for each patient. Meanwhile, South Korea is testing nearly 20,000 patients per day, according to the BBC.”

The whole report is pretty bleak, re US preparedness for covid-19

Source: https://www.nbcnews.com/health/heal...it-it-fauci-says-coronavirus-testing-n1157036
 
novaphile said:
On the news last night, it was remarked that Australia has processed more Coronavirus tests that the USA.



I haven't been able to track down the source that sparked this remark, but the number of people tested was something like 5,000.



Given our population (approximately 25 million people), I'm hoping that this is not true, because it would indicate that the USA has really dropped the ball.



The only figures I can find for the USA suggest approximately 1,000 people tested two weeks ago. So I'm hoping that it was just a temporary statistical anomaly that was reported.
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The USA has indeed really dropped the ball.
 
dudalb said:
The more I read about how this started, and how many sings there were that his was going to hit us, the more I think this is a intelligence failure on a massive scale, a sort of Public Health version of Pearl Harbor or 9/11. evidence was there, but nobody put it together in time.
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You can’t prepare for a zoonotic outbreak.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Sherkeu said:
Yours was the non-sequitur.
He had said (in response to my posted video of China deliveries in infected zones) that NZ couldn't do it...that it was an advantage of a large country. Your response didn't make sense, so I clarified.

I can go back and clip the needed text but I'm sure you can look yourself.
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You should. But I will for us. :)


The Atheist said:
[your exchange was here, mine followed] ...
Skeptic Ginger said:
How long did it take cases to explode in Italy?
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Yo - you and I are very much on the same page now.

Do you think it's time to walk back that whole "Influenza is thousands of times more deadly than coronovirus" thing?

Actually, I'm just kidding - we all make mistakes and it's clear you've moved on.

I'm hoping to Bob that I've made a mistake in suggesting 50,000,000 dead is a possibility, but if some of these "developed" countries don't start acting, it will be all that and more, because in among the talk of Italy, USA, et al, nobody's mentioned India, Brazil, Egypt, Nigeria and other countries with large populations and less-robust systems.
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This part was a reply to Marcus but it was relevant to the discussion The Atheist and I were having:
The Atheist said:
... Ho hum.

Let's compare deaths after the epidemic.

To do so now is dishonest.
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This was my reply:
SG said:
The Atheist said:
That's the luxury a billion people bring. NZ wouldn't be able to organise that in a year, let alone the red tape you need to wade through.

Yo - you and I are very much on the same page now.
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Not quite. You still keep running numbers based on incomplete data.

The Atheist said:
Do you think it's time to walk back that whole "Influenza is thousands of times more deadly than coronovirus" thing?
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Not quite that either. I will take back "thousands". But we won't know yet how this compares to really bad flu years that definitely look to have been worse than the current coronavirus:
[snip]
Until we have those questions answered you cannot say COVID is worse than flu. I'm still going with 'flu is worse'.

The Atheist said:
Actually, I'm just kidding - we all make mistakes and it's clear you've moved on.
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This I agree with completely. We've both moved toward the middle.

The Atheist said:
I'm hoping to Bob that I've made a mistake in suggesting 50,000,000 dead is a possibility, but if some of these "developed" countries don't start acting, it will be all that and more, because in among the talk of Italy, USA, et al, nobody's mentioned India, Brazil, Egypt, Nigeria and other countries with large populations and less-robust systems.
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The problem trying to compare these numbers is no one ever counted all these countries' fatalities in all the past flu pandemics.

We are going to see a huge problem when this gets into some of those refugee camps.


The Atheist said:
Let's compare deaths after the epidemic.

To do so now is dishonest.
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I've been telling you that since the start.
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I can see how you got confused, TA was having 3 different discussions.
 
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A quick personal anecdote..

I am aware of an elementary school that is closed ( for at least two weeks ) because one staff member has tested positive for Convid 19. The school has over 700 students and around 100 staff members.

On Tuesday of the same week the infected person was identified, and before the school was closed, a group of students and several staff members ( not the infected one ) attended an event at a local high school that has over 1700 students.

The event was in the school gym, and supervised by a large number of students and staff from the high school.

This event was a dance, where a lot of touching and close sharing of personal space was going on.

As well as the students and staff from the school where the infected staff member was identified, students and staff from several other schools were in attendance.

Another factor, is that they rode on buses that are shared by any number of other schools.


It should be interesting to see how this plays out.
 
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dudalb said:
Disneyland is closing.
Now the Apocalypse is truly upon us.
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I've been watching them as a barometer. It would mean more if their hand was not forced by the state and city guidelines though. It's tough to operate 'no large gatherings' when you have 50k people inside the park.

Their statement:
While there have been no reported cases of COVID-19 at Disneyland Resort, after carefully reviewing the guidelines of the Governor of California’s executive order and in the best interest of our guests and employees, we are proceeding with the closure of Disneyland Park and Disney California Adventure Park, beginning the morning of March 14 through the end of the month.
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eta: to get an idea of how rarely they close, consider they have been open since 1955 and closed a total of 3 days since then.
JFK mourning day 1963 , Northridge earthquake assessment in 1994, and just after the 9/11 attack. And now they will close for 2 weeks!!
 
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Belz... said:
But is it a sign of Covid-19, though? Just last week I caught a pretty bad case of the flu and was struck with probably the worst fever in my life. I'm still not fully recovered, but it was not Covid-19 (I think).
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Both influenza and COVID can present with sudden onset of fever. But the flu season in Australia hasn't really begun.
 
varwoche said:
I received one of those mass broadcast emails from a friend. I wonder if any of this makes sense...

This info is from my friend that works for CDC that passed this along to his family and friends. I'm passing it along as well..

The new NCP coronavirus may not show sign of infection for many days, how can one know if he/she is infected. By the time they have fever and/or cough and goes to the hospital, the lungs is usually 50 % Fibrosis and it's too late!

Taiwan experts provide a simple self-check that we can do every morning:

Take a deep breath and hold your breath for more than 10 seconds. If you complete it successfully without coughing, without discomfort, stuffiness or tightness, etc.,it proves there is no fibrosis in the lungs, basically indicating no infection.

In critical times, please self-check every morning in an environment with clean air.

SERIOUS EXCELLENT ADVICE by Japanese Doctors treating COVID-19 cases:

Everyone should ensure your mouth & throat is moist, never DRY. Take a few sips of water every 15 mins at least. WHY?**

Even if the virus gets into your mouth...drinking water or other liquids will WASH them down through your esophagus into the stomach. Once there in tummy...your stomach ACID will kill all the virus. If you don't drink enough water more regularly....the virus can enter your windpipes and into the LUNGS. That's very dangerous.​
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Totally bogus.

It's one of those full of BS claims with just a bit of truth to make it seem credible.
 
Sherkeu said:
I've been watching them as a barometer. It would mean more if their hand was not forced by the state and city guidelines though. It's tough to operate 'no large gatherings' when you have 50k people inside the park.

Their statement:
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Disney and Universal Studios here in Japan have been closed for weeks now. Why would they not do the same in the US when it’s clearly loose all over the country?
 
Marcus said:
Other people on the thread have been pointing out, heat per se is not necessarily a problem for the virus, but it still could be seasonal. We can hope.
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Heat is a problem for the virus. It's cold and freezing that are not.

https://aem.asm.org/content/76/9/2712
Effects of Air Temperature and Relative Humidity on Coronavirus Survival on Surfaces

I addressed the whole seasonal thing upthread and I'm not going to repeat it or hunt it down. Maybe someone else will.
 
Sherkeu said:
I've been watching them as a barometer. It would mean more if their hand was not forced by the state and city guidelines though. It's tough to operate 'no large gatherings' when you have 50k people inside the park.

Their statement:



eta: to get an idea of how rarely they close, consider they have been open since 1955 and closed a total of 3 days since then.
JFK mourning day 1963 , Northridge earthquake assessment in 1994, and just after the 9/11 attack. And now they will close for 2 weeks!!
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Be interesting to know if they are insured against something like this.
 
Checkmite said:
He did not do himself any favors in this regard.

A couple of days ago when the team held a press conference to announce that the player was sick and would be getting tested, but before the test was given, this is how the player ended the press conference:

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That was so in-your-face. You gotta wonder what the guy was thinking.
 
xjx388 said:
Not true. Quest, LabCorp and a couple of others are doing them.
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Not paying attention? Pence was not talking about, "but now that is fixed". Pence was saying that always was the case.

They only got approval March 5th and 9th respectively.

Quest, LabCorp to launch nationwide coronavirus testing ahead of FDA review
LabCorp began making its internally developed PCR test available March 5, for use with respiratory samples such as saliva, washes, and nasal or oral swabs.

Meanwhile, Quest Diagnostics said it would begin offering its nationwide testing service March 9, using its lab-developed test designed to detect RNA of the virus known as SARS-CoV-2.
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