2019-nCoV / Corona virus Pt 2

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angrysoba said:
Things are getting so bad in Spain, that Chinese people are being asked to return to China by their relatives. They apparently don't have a lot of faith in the way Spanish authorities are handling the situation.

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Oh the irony!

Anyone care to predict when we will start to read similar stories about the US?

Not such in local Chinese papers (you can already find those), but local papers in English or Spanish.

FWIW, the SCMP has had very good coverage and reporting for a long time now ...
 
The Big Die-Off start?

Perhaps. I predict the virus will do some damage, begin to wane and then be followed by a mutant virus that really hammers the planet. I still think cell phone microwaves are involved. Scary now that it is here. And the Ponzi economy will not escape the Big Correction this time.
 
Wife and I just got back from El Salvador. Went through the international terminal at LAX and all that. She started feeling sick, bit of a fever, stomach issues, etc and went to the Dr yesterday. They didn't test her for the virus. The U.S. is screwed.
 
Tero said:
We've all seen the charts of the various viruses and their two measured facts:
1 how many people are infected from each victim (with symptoms)
2 death rate

i'm still puzzled by the one number: how many total get infected

We have flu each year. Some 30 million get the flu. So 10%. Why is that?
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html
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Think of a fire that burns out when there is little kindling on the ground and one that takes off because that kindling has accumulated. Susceptible people are like kindling. The virus has some paths of person to person spread blocked by immune hosts. It slows the transmission down.

In addition, different viruses vary in how contagious they are. Does it take a large or small inoculum, and is the host teeming with shedding virus or not?
 
The Dow is hovering just above the -2000 mark. I think once it hits that, the market is forced to close for the day.
(eta) Incorrect -- I had that confused with the percentage drops. It happens once it hits a 20% drop. The other pauses (for 15-minutes) are at 7% and 13% and we already had the 7% pause today (2nd time this week!)

I feel bad for the basketball player who got outed for having the virus that shut down the entire NBA season. At least, that's how some fans are going to look at it. That it's all his fault, I mean.

I woke up to a slightly sore throat, coughed once, sneezed a couple times, and had to blow my nose. Then I got a drink of water and felt perfectly fine.
 
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Marcus said:
The numbers have been talked about earlier in the thread but I thought you did a good job of summarizing them. The reason I don't think we will see 50 million deaths, as some predicted, or even a few hundred thousand, as we might see in a normal flu season, is the large scale behavior of the virus. Take China, for example. There are objective signs that it is tapering off there. A nation of 1.4 billion people, 3169 (reported) deaths from coronavirus. If it were progressing by the numbers, we should see millions of deaths there, not a few thousand.



Perhaps the seasonal factor is a big one. It will be telling if the warmer places continue to show low numbers as the weather heats up.
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My own OOM estimate of the number of Covid-19 deaths in the US (upthread) is ~1.9 million. Spread out over two years. Assuming no significant, effective vaccination. Assuming efforts to contain it are unsuccessful. And no significant change in (virus) behavior (which could be good or bad).

Never say never, but millions dead from Corvid-19 in China didn’t happen because of the heroic/draconian/whatever efforts made to contain it.

A scary scenario: this coronavirus becomes like the flu in the next year or three ... present everywhere in the world, at all times; there is a vaccine, but it’s not even 90% effective (for whatever combo of reasons); and it’s worst during certain climatic “seasons”, just not the same as with flu. And annual deaths in the US range between 100k and 900k (it’s deadlier than the flu). Enter yet another novel coronavirus (jumped to a human in India this time) ... yawn ... it’s killed only 3k people in India, yet the flu kills ~60k a year in the US, and there are ~500k Covid-19 deaths ...
 
Skeptic Ginger said:
Church. Pretty sure all that communion and other religious rituals amplified the epidemic there.
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I read a webcomic in which a woman who had been raised attending a small-town church of the type that had electric guitars during their service was brought to a Catholic service by a friend. First, she was shocked that Communion was using actual wine instead of grape juice. Then, when she saw a single chalice being passed from person to person, she shouted at the priest "Hey! Are you going to disinfect that?!?"
 
The Atheist said:
I'm still not convinced. The way it's spreading still me suspicious the actual rate of infection could be a huge factor higher than we're seeing.[...].
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Yes, I reckon there´s already like million people infected in Spain alone. So many stories of people with symptoms but not tested because they don´t fit the criteria... So many politicians have it, but they are the only ones getting tested systematically here, so it gives you an idea of what it will be like in the general population...

Today they cancelled all schools in my area, the Basque Country, for two weeks at least. Lots of cases popping around.

Two of my kids have upset tummies and fever. I just read that´s quite common for kids with corona. I´ve been having mild sinusitis, which I´ve read from anecdotal reports it happens with corona too... who knows. But I´m glad I sent my parents to isolation a couple of weeks ago...
 
pipelineaudio said:
The you guys who keep talking about the impending panics
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pipelineaudio said:
ummmm https://i.imgur.com/SwWWAAm.png
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A couple of posts in several thousand hardly qualifies, and most of the ones you copied are about the NBA and don't mention panic.
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Wolrab said:
For what it's worth, a local biotech company says they may have the answer with an old drug:
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Worth a try, maybe, but lots of things work in vitro but not the body.

I'd still go chloroquine right now, pending results from China's testing.

angrysoba said:
Things are getting so bad in Spain, that Chinese people are being asked to return to China by their relatives.
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Yo - there's some delicious irony in that!

Abooga said:
Two of my kids have upset tummies and fever. I just read that´s quite common for kids with corona. I´ve been having mild sinusitis, which I´ve read from anecdotal reports it happens with corona too... who knows. But I´m glad I sent my parents to isolation a couple of weeks ago...
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This is one of the problems - I know from NZ that there's a very similar virus doing the rounds, plus the ubiquitous norovirus.

Humanity's cup floweth over right now.
 
Armitage72 said:
I read a webcomic in which a woman who had been raised attending a small-town church of the type that had electric guitars during their service was brought to a Catholic service by a friend. First, she was shocked that Communion was using actual wine instead of grape juice. Then, when she saw a single chalice being passed from person to person, she shouted at the priest "Hey! Are you going to disinfect that?!?"
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In the 40+ years I attended those services, I saw the wine cup being used (and reused) maybe twice. I think they were special occasions like weddings. I probably though nothing of it because I grew up in a family of 9 and we had one shared drinking cup in the bathroom. Nowadays I wouldn't let that pass (even before Covid-19).
 
When will the number of reported Covid-19 deaths in Italy surpass the equivalent for Hubei province in China? All of China? NOTE: that’s when, not if.

Will the same things happen - number of reported deaths due to Covid-19 surpass Hubei’s - for Iran? S Korea? N Korea? Spain? The US? If so, when?
 
JeanTate said:
When will the number of reported Covid-19 deaths in Italy surpass the equivalent for Hubei province in China? All of China? NOTE: that’s when, not if.

Will the same things happen - number of reported deaths due to Covid-19 surpass Hubei’s - for Iran? S Korea? N Korea? Spain? The US? If so, when?
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I did make the comment a million posts ago that other countries wouldn't have a hope in hell of sticking a quarantine on entire provinces, which seems to be what worked in putting the brakes on China's outbreak, so "not long" is my answer to that.

Meanwhile, some very ugly news for those hoping not to get it: https://www.theguardian.com/science...ead-by-people-yet-to-show-symptoms-scientists
 
PartSkeptic said:
The Big Die-Off start?

Perhaps. I predict the virus will do some damage, begin to wane and then be followed by a mutant virus that really hammers the planet. I still think cell phone microwaves are involved. Scary now that it is here. And the Ponzi economy will not escape the Big Correction this time.
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In a word, bollocks.
 
JeanTate said:
My own OOM estimate of the number of Covid-19 deaths in the US (upthread) is ~1.9 million. Spread out over two years. Assuming no significant, effective vaccination. Assuming efforts to contain it are unsuccessful. And no significant change in (virus) behavior (which could be good or bad).
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There will be a vaccine, anti-virals are being tested for effectiveness.
The 1968 H3N2 pandemic killed around 34,00 in the USA, ~700,000 worldwide. This won't be as bad, even with Trump.
 
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