Most things exist on a distribution.
I know there are detectable trans-people because I've seen plenty of them, who were obviously trans.
And how would
you know? Are they the famous trans women, Lady Gaga and Michelle Obama?
I understand the 'reasonable' point you're trying to make, but it's two levels missing the point. First, the argument that someone is assured of the rarity of a group that is in part defined by the inability of that person to detect that group is simply funny on the face of it. Nothing you said changes that.
Second, you realize you lack adequate data but you're not recognizing that you lack adequate
criteria as well. How do you know they were trans women? No, I'm not arguing that all trans women pass all the time, which absolutely needs to be said in this thread sadly. I will however keep hammering home that the majority to a substantial minority of women people 'clock' as trans women are just cis women. Old women, fat women, tall women, black women, and all women who don't wear makeup are especially prone to this. Perhaps you
specifically are really good at identifying, but almost certainly the less one is prone to false positives the more one is prone to false negatives. I've said it many times in this thread, but the number of times people have made the exact argument I have made earlier leaves me with no illusion anyone is paying attention, the most beautiful feminine woman I've ever known got called a 'tranny' a lot simply by being my height. She was told she had 'man hands' but that wasn't true either.
Whatever criteria you're holding trans women to, you're holding cis women to. These cis women who want to police what standards define women are giving power to a lot of men to also police these standards. They're not going to like it when they end up falling on the wrong side of them. It is better to recognize what upholding these standards really does, and who it gives power to.
And while Marcus was specific to trans women, your post wasn't and I'm going to, yet again, point out that trans men, you know,
exist. Afab people consistently pass. It is likely that nine out of ten trans men you've seen you didn't even clock a bit. I've never seen my step nephew clocked, not even by his sisters who are younger than him. (I also know at least two trans women who I've never seen clocked, or heard speak of being clocked.)
Thank you for trying to question your perceptions and recognizing some limits in them.