2019-nCoV / Corona virus Pt 2

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angrysoba said:
ETA: was she at Monday’s COBRA meeting?
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That's a bloody good question!

Skeptic Ginger said:
Just had a person from Seattle on the news, she had a mild case, only fever, no respiratory symptoms and she's well now. She got sick after attending a party. They only found the case because she submitted a nasal sample for flu testing.

No mention if other people from the party have even been notified, let alone tested or advised to self-quarantine. :mad:
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You're playing it just like us - my daughter has all of the symptoms, so I rang the dedicated health line and was told to visit a GP.

Gobsmacked, I asked the nurse at the other end why the hell I would do that, being the exact opposite of what's needed.

Our government's health department is determined to make us Little Italy.

a_unique_person said:
How about this for the variable fatality rates. If best quality treatment is available the death rate is lower than if the health system is overloaded. That would explain the huge spike in Italy.
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Sure it will. That's the whole point of mitigation efforts - control the outbreak, keep it small, ensure intubated ICUs are available for every patient who needs one.

I imagine death rates when hospitals are overflowing are probably 50% higher than they would otherwise be.
 
portlandatheist said:
I was just thinking that politicians, in general, are a high-risk group. They travel, go to meetings and gatherings of all kinds, and interact with the public. They shake hands. I'm sure we'll see many of them get the virus.
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And other than a joke or two avoiding hand shaking, none of them are practicing social distancing.

The Democrats need a back up plan if Biden catches it.
 
N. Macedonia under quarantine. Apparently they had their first verified case Feb 26th, and already the whole country went on on lock down yesterday. My friend did not say if it was mandatory or voluntary quarantine, only that she was not supposed to leave her house for anything but emergencies.

So apparently it isn't just Italy, but also rapidly spreading through the Balkan states.

No word from my Greek friends yet.
 
Skeptic Ginger said:
I haven't found the number but this is on the public health web site:

http://www.austintexas.gov/COVID19
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I found this from your link
Currently, it’s unclear how easily or sustainably this virus is spreading between people.
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I find that amazing. Should be easy to find out when it has just started spreading from person to person. Method
1. A person with the virus is asked about their movements.
2. It is discovered that this person came into contact with another person who also had the virus.
3. They are both asked what contact they had with each other.
4. Repeat the above steps for other cases until you have a good sample size.
5. Discover what sort of contact most of them had.
6. Alert the public not to do this type of contact with a person who might have the virus.
7. Repeat the above steps

Note on step 5. It should be found that most of them had similar types of contact. Maybe most of them came briefly close to each other (if this is the case then maybe everyone in the room got the virus). Or maybe they were together for 15 minutes. It is important also in this step to find out contact they had with other people while they were infectious but did not give it to these people.

Note on step 7. The method of transmission may change over time or there may be more than one method of transmission.
 
Maybe they need to convert hotels and other tourist accommodation into ICUs. Train people on how to treat the patients. These people could even have a mild case themselves (as long as that does not make anyone even more sick!). It would have the advantage of keeping these people employed, as well as locked up. They would be there 24 hours a day until they are no longer infectious. A major problem with this is that specialised equipment might be hard to get. Australia has a month or two to get this equipment if it starts now.
 
The Atheist said:
Sure it will. That's the whole point of mitigation efforts - control the outbreak, keep it small, ensure intubated ICUs are available for every patient who needs one.

I imagine death rates when hospitals are overflowing are probably 50% higher than they would otherwise be.
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Good point.

Likely the reason that nothing is being done here in Orange County. They can afford for it to spread slowly because the rate of transmission is pretty low.

I think public transport is a factor and almost no one uses it here. Our cars are like millions of little protective bubbles that stem the tide.
 
rjh01 said:
I found this from your link

I find that amazing. Should be easy to find out when it has just started spreading from person to person. Method
1. A person with the virus is asked about their movements.
2. It is discovered that this person came into contact with another person who also had the virus.
3. They are both asked what contact they had with each other.
4. Repeat the above steps for other cases until you have a good sample size.
5. Discover what sort of contact most of them had.
6. Alert the public not to do this type of contact with a person who might have the virus.
7. Repeat the above steps

Note on step 5. It should be found that most of them had similar types of contact. Maybe most of them came briefly close to each other (if this is the case then maybe everyone in the room got the virus). Or maybe they were together for 15 minutes. It is important also in this step to find out contact they had with other people while they were infectious but did not give it to these people.

Note on step 7. The method of transmission may change over time or there may be more than one method of transmission.
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Public Health here gave up contact tracing almost before they started as the virus was already loose in the community. Cases unconnected to the first case were turning up everywhere.
 
a_unique_person said:
According to the GOP it is now called the "China Virus". Smart marketing move.
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I don't really see the issue with the name 'Wuhan Virus'. Is there any recent examples where restraint in regards to naming a virus was used? I did read that the WHO a number of years back wanted to stop the practice of associating virus names with certain things like places but I can't think of any backlash until this current outbreak.

It hasn't been that long since MERS and I don't recall any widespread issues being voiced about that name. Then again I am not in the medical field and since it didn't become the same kind of problem as this current outbreak, it didn't really cause me to spend as much time keeping up to date with everything going in.
 
How many times will we have to self isolate?

Was thinking about this, if I have what I think are the symptoms and I as advised self quarantine but aren't tested and in fact don't have the viral infection and I return to normal life, then I again get some suspicious symptoms I go back into self isolation.

Is self isolation useful if I'm not tested?
 
Darat said:
How many times will we have to self isolate?

Was thinking about this, if I have what I think are the symptoms and I as advised self quarantine but aren't tested and in fact don't have the viral infection and I return to normal life, then I again get some suspicious symptoms I go back into self isolation.

Is self isolation useful if I'm not tested?
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depends on whether you are worried about being infectious or getting infected.
 
rjh01 said:
It is important also in this step to find out contact they had with other people while they were infectious but did not give it to these people.
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Not practical.

My daughter is a classic example. She comes into contact with probably 100 people a day, and if those people pick up germs from her on their hands, then they could potentially infect dozens more each.

Some people, it will be helpful, but in a lot of cases, a complete waste of time.

The fact that I've been asking for years why we aren't teleworking is just another piece on the pile from where I sit.

We could have this sucker under control in days, but nobody can be bothered.

rjh01 said:
Maybe they need to convert hotels and other tourist accommodation into ICUs. Train people on how to treat the patients.
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If it were that easy there wouldn't be a worldwide shortage of doctors and nurses.

Darat said:
How many times will we have to self isolate?

Was thinking about this, if I have what I think are the symptoms and I as advised self quarantine but aren't tested and in fact don't have the viral infection and I return to normal life, then I again get some suspicious symptoms I go back into self isolation.

Is self isolation useful if I'm not tested?
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No, in fact, it's counter-productive if you're not tested, because you're eating into sick leave unnecessarily. I'd say that would make people less likely to do it a second time, so the testing should be easy enough to access that it's not an issue.

Every country seems to be looking to Italy instead of South Korea for a template on how to proceed.
 
The Atheist said:
rjh01 said:
It is important also in this step to find out contact they had with other people while they were infectious but did not give it to these people.
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Not practical.

My daughter is a classic example. She comes into contact with probably 100 people a day, and if those people pick up germs from her on their hands, then they could potentially infect dozens more each.

Some people, it will be helpful, but in a lot of cases, a complete waste of time.
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I am sure your daughter would know where she has been in the last few days. If she has been in the same place as someone else who has the virus then we can assume that either she gave it to that other person or she got it from that other person. They could both then be given a photo of each other and asked do you remember this person?

Once many people in any one location have the virus this becomes hard as each person would be in contact with several people all with the virus and many of them do not tell the authorities they have the virus. One of the things you need is for anyone who may have the virus to get tested fast. The more people, with the virus, who do not get tested the harder it is for this to work.

rjh01 said:
Maybe they need to convert hotels and other tourist accommodation into ICUs. Train people on how to treat the patients.
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If it were that easy there wouldn't be a worldwide shortage of doctors and nurses.

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You may be right, but it is not often that they get heaps of people all with the same thing wrong with them. Hence a team of people could be trained to provide most of the services these sick people need. Each person in the team could be trained to do one or two functions. Hence not much training required. These people would be useless at providing care for people with other diseases. If anything unusual happens then a fully trained nurse or doctor could be called.
 
rjh01 said:
These people would be useless at providing care for people with other diseases. If anything unusual happens then a fully trained nurse or doctor could be called.
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Every trained nurse and doctor that's not sick will be in deck at actual hospitals, and when it comes to things like intubation - which is going to be required in large numbers, I doubt you could teach people in the time available.

The other problem for you is lack of materials - hospitals don't have oodles of ICU equipment lying around, making the rooms sterile and air-tight would be a touch difficult.

Nice thought, but not at all practical.

The practical measure would be to get armed forces to set up MASH-style hospitals and get ready to lend a hand.
 
Darat said:
How many times will we have to self isolate?

Was thinking about this, if I have what I think are the symptoms and I as advised self quarantine but aren't tested and in fact don't have the viral infection and I return to normal life, then I again get some suspicious symptoms I go back into self isolation.

Is self isolation useful if I'm not tested?
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This is why we need drive-through testing.
 
The thing that keeps coming into my mind is a program I watched several years ago about the behaviour of people in emergency situations and the differences between those who survive and those who die.

9/11: The staff of the company who had health and safety guy who insisted on regular fire drills got out. Others stayed to finish of that very important email didn't fair so well.

Fire in Wolworth's (a former department chain store fire in UK): People in restaurant who had just sat down to eat their fish and chips stayed in restaurant despite smoke coming in under curtains.

Just listened to Sam Harris' podcast on Coronavirus and how amazingly badly the USA is dealing with it.

Humans suck at risk! I'm hoping our flight to Las Vegas for wedding is cancelled so the decision is taken out of our hands. Don't want my 76 year old mother ill in New York in the middle of April relying on the flash, expensive and crap US healthcare system!
 
Ivor the Engineer said:
The thing that keeps coming into my mind is a program I watched several years ago about the behaviour of people in emergency situations and the differences between those who survive and those who die.

9/11: The staff of the company who had health and safety guy who insisted on regular fire drills got out. Others stayed to finish of that very important email didn't fair so well.

Fire in Wolworth's (a former department chain store fire in UK): People in restaurant who had just sat down to eat their fish and chips stayed in restaurant despite smoke coming in under curtains.

Just listened to Sam Harris' podcast on Coronavirus and how amazingly badly the USA is dealing with it.

Humans suck at risk! I'm hoping our flight to Las Vegas for wedding is cancelled so the decision is taken out of our hands. Don't want my 76 year old mother ill in New York in the middle of April relying on the flash, expensive and crap US healthcare system!
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Yeah, good point.

It’s one of those “I don’t want to look weird by reacting differently from everyone else” situations where we look to others for clues for how to behave in an unfamiliar situation.

Actually, we found ourselves in a similar position to Sam Harris as we had taken our son out of his kindergarten before the schools were officially closed and we were also wondering if maybe we were just over reacting.

Still, I know of at least one guy who is completely underreacting. His son came down with a fever at his nursery school and two days later (today!) he sent him back to school. Wtf!
 
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