2019-nCoV / Corona virus Pt 2

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Skeptic Ginger said:
I know I know The same guy that said we have lots of tests, perfect tests: Incompetrump! The new Comic-con superhero.


Disgusting isn't it.
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The part I just do not "get" is why those professionals at/near the top of HHS, CDC, etc aren't screaming their lungs out about this.

As I read it, just about every study of every epidemic, pandemic, outbreak, etc has concluded that transparency, honesty, and clarity of communication are right up there in terms on getting a handle on public health situations like this.

Scott Aaronson goes on, in his blogpost, to say a few words about the movie Contagion. By chance (ha!) I watched it again recently, twice, and could fault its science for only one apparent big error: no virus can work as fast as the fictional one portrayed (highly contagious within just a day of initial infection, death within merely two or three), can it?

Minor: the second time I watched it with subtitles on; the only error I caught was "adjuvant" ... correctly spoken by the actor(s), but wrong term in the subtitles.
 
pipelineaudio said:
Man, Japan actually seems to be doing pretty good considering how bad they blew it for the entire world early on
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Well, it’s not clear how many people really have the virus and that is partly because there is still hardly any testing going on here.

Also, when there have been some recent clusters discovered such as those at live events here in Osaka it has turned out that almost everyone tested has the virus. There are almost certainly large numbers of people about to be discovered the hard way I am sure.

Third, on “blew it for the rest of the world”, I think it is pretty clear form Italy and Iran and now the US, that this virus has already been circulating internationally for some time.
 
JeanTate said:
The part I just do not "get" is why those professionals at/near the top of HHS, CDC, etc aren't screaming their lungs out about this.

As I read it, just about every study of every epidemic, pandemic, outbreak, etc has concluded that transparency, honesty, and clarity of communication are right up there in terms on getting a handle on public health situations like this.

Scott Aaronson goes on, in his blogpost, to say a few words about the movie Contagion. By chance (ha!) I watched it again recently, twice, and could fault its science for only one apparent big error: no virus can work as fast as the fictional one portrayed (highly contagious within just a day of initial infection, death within merely two or three), can it?

Minor: the second time I watched it with subtitles on; the only error I caught was "adjuvant" ... correctly spoken by the actor(s), but wrong term in the subtitles.
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Nope, a virus can't, but I can see why the filmmakers would take that liberty for dramatic purposes.
 
pipelineaudio said:
Man, Japan actually seems to be doing pretty good considering how bad they blew it for the entire world early on
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About that - it's an area where I still think a very important part of the puzzle is missing.

Japan: 1st case, 16 January
Italy: 1st case, 31 January
Spain: 1st case, 31 January
France: 1st case, 25 February

Yet Japan, despite completely lax controls, is lagging way behind those other countries by a very long way in both cases and deaths right now. They should clearly be at the top of the list. They had a 6-week head start on France and have 2/3 less cases and deaths and are running at 15% of new case load.

The only thing I can see is they shut the schools early in the piece - is it being spread by the little asymptomatic or very mildly symptomatic kids?
 
The Atheist said:
About that - it's an area where I still think a very important part of the puzzle is missing.

Japan: 1st case, 16 January
Italy: 1st case, 31 January
Spain: 1st case, 31 January
France: 1st case, 25 February

Yet Japan, despite completely lax controls, is lagging way behind those other countries by a very long way in both cases and deaths right now. They should clearly be at the top of the list. They had a 6-week head start on France and have 2/3 less cases and deaths and are running at 15% of new case load.

The only thing I can see is they shut the schools early in the piece - is it being spread by the little asymptomatic or very mildly symptomatic kids?
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Maybe Japanese society and institutions are simply better at handling this kind of thing, without having to go full retard on it.
 
The Atheist said:
About that - it's an area where I still think a very important part of the puzzle is missing.

Japan: 1st case, 16 January
Italy: 1st case, 31 January
Spain: 1st case, 31 January
France: 1st case, 25 February

Yet Japan, despite completely lax controls, is lagging way behind those other countries by a very long way in both cases and deaths right now. They should clearly be at the top of the list. They had a 6-week head start on France and have 2/3 less cases and deaths and are running at 15% of new case load.

The only thing I can see is they shut the schools early in the piece - is it being spread by the little asymptomatic or very mildly symptomatic kids?
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Schools didn’t close until the end of February, so I don’t know if that had a big effect. Possibly.

It could be to do with a greater baseline social distancing compared with Southern Europe. People generally don’t greet each other with kissing and hugging etc... even their elderly relatives. Also, there is more widespread use of masks and hand sanitizer in a lot of places. It could have something to do with that.

That said, there is also a lot of use of public transport such as packed subways. You would have thought that could contribute to the spread.

Pure speculation on my part is that perhaps the virus has a “sweet spot” in terms of humidity and temperature which some countries go into at the right time and make it easier to spread.

IANAE.
 
JeanTate said:
The part I just do not "get" is why those professionals at/near the top of HHS, CDC, etc aren't screaming their lungs out about this.
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I am hoping for a point one of Trump's lickspittle medical staff appointees finally sees enough and blows up at him.

Of course, then they're promptly fired. (Well, after they leave and he gets to his phone, that is.)
 
angrysoba said:
Schools didn’t close until the end of February, so I don’t know if that had a big effect. Possibly.
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Good point, scratch that - I didn't check the timing.

angrysoba said:
It could be to do with a greater baseline social distancing compared with Southern Europe. ...

That said, there is also a lot of use of public transport such as packed subways. You would have thought that could contribute to the spread.
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That one works if most cases are being transmitted by hand-mouth/eyes/nose. Then the subways wouldn't be such an issue. I don't know whether Japanese keep their hands cleaner than Italians, but for sure the Italian methods of greeting, with lots of kissing, isn't going to slow infection.

angrysoba said:
Pure speculation on my part is that perhaps the virus has a “sweet spot” in terms of humidity and temperature which some countries go into at the right time and make it easier to spread.
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Your weather's been much the same as northern Italy, so I'm not seeing that, but anything's possible.

Need more data.
 
Skeptic Ginger said:
I thought there was one case and a couple hundred suspected?
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The local news is still saying zero, but after reading your post I googled it and it seems there is a Dell employee just returned from India who has tested positive. Haven't found the couple hundred reference.


Some cases in San Antonio (80 miles away) from the cruise ship docked there and 4 cases in Houston.
 
Marcus said:
The local news is still saying zero, but after reading your post I googled it and it seems there is a Dell employee just returned from India who has tested positive. Haven't found the couple hundred reference.


Some cases in San Antonio (80 miles away) from the cruise ship docked there and 4 cases in Houston.
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There is no ship docked in SA . . . those patients were transferred to Lackland AFB for quarantine from the ship that was quarantined in Japan. And it seems more are on the way from the ship in California.
 
What are you hearing about the Coronavirus transmission mechanism? Most things I read suggest it is not easily airborne other than if a person coughs or sneezes on or near you. Here is an example of that common idea:

The principal mode of transmission is still thought to be respiratory droplets, which may travel up to six feet from someone who is sneezing or coughing. The new coronavirus isn’t believed to be an airborne virus, like measles or smallpox, that can circulate through the air. “If you have an infected person in the front of the plane, for instance, and you’re in the back of the plane, your risk is close to zero simply because the area of exposure is thought to be roughly six feet from the infected person,”

However, I just saw a video interviewing the author of a 2017 book: Deadliest Enemy: Our War Against Killer Germs by Michael T. Osterholm PhD MPH

He suggests it can be transmitted via ventilation systems without being in the presence of an infected person.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cZFhjMQrVts
 
xjx388 said:
There is no ship docked in SA . . . those patients were transferred to Lackland AFB for quarantine from the ship that was quarantined in Japan. And it seems more are on the way from the ship in California.
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The quarantine seems to be working, it's been several days now and no reports of additional cases.


Also, duh, San Antonio is not a port.


Making fun of myself in case that wasn't clear.
 
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Marcus said:
The local news is still saying zero, but after reading your post I googled it and it seems there is a Dell employee just returned from India who has tested positive. Haven't found the couple hundred reference.


Some cases in San Antonio (80 miles away) from the cruise ship docked there and 4 cases in Houston.
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I haven't found the number but this is on the public health web site:

http://www.austintexas.gov/COVID19
We are currently in Phase 2: - Phase 2: Persons Under Investigation (Testing in Progress)

If you poke around on the site you can probably find numbers.

But from the looks of their 'phases', they might only be testing people with travel exposure history. :(



Just had a person from Seattle on the news, she had a mild case, only fever, no respiratory symptoms and she's well now. She got sick after attending a party. They only found the case because she submitted a nasal sample for flu testing.

No mention if other people from the party have even been notified, let alone tested or advised to self-quarantine. :mad:
 
angrysoba said:
Yep. Wonder who else she has come into contact with recently.

Secretary of State for Health, Matt Hancock?

PM Boris?

ETA: was she at Monday’s COBRA meeting?
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Fromt the linked article: The Department of Health said she first showed symptoms on Thursday - the same day she attended a Downing Street event hosted by the prime minister - and had been self-isolating since Friday.
 
Skeptic Ginger said:
While I don't wish that on her or anyone, I do wish more cases would be found in more government officials. Maybe they'd take it more seriously.
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I was just thinking that politicians, in general, are a high-risk group. They travel, go to meetings and gatherings of all kinds, and interact with the public. They shake hands. I'm sure we'll see many of them get the virus.
 
Speculating that social distancing has decreased R0, it should also result in decreased rates of influenza. The rate of new positive tests of the flu have indeed dropped pretty strongly over the last 3 weeks and appear to have dropped somewhat earlier in the flu season that would be expected.

What would be really interesting is to compare this to models based on prior seasons to see what, if any, change has occurred this year from social distancing caued by the heightened coronavirus awareness.
 
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