2019-nCoV / Corona virus Pt 2

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dasmiller said:
I'm pretty confident that we* will develop a vaccine and that it will be widely used in the developed countries, but it probably won't be available for another 18 months, and the disease will be very widely distributed by then.
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One London college is about to start testing a potential vaccine right now: https://www.iflscience.com/health-a...ill-pay-you-to-get-infected-with-coronavirus/

Marcus said:
All gatherings of 2500 people or more banned in Travis County (Austin), state of emergency declared, total number of cases 0.
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Haha!

NZ continues to take the opposite approach, with another long list of large events for this weekend, all of which are going ahead.

JeanTate said:
I cannot be the first to have noticed this ...

From the latest WHO situation report, quite a few of the countries neighboring China have no reported cases: Mongolia, Laos, Myanmar, various central Asian ones...
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You forgot India, which is showing very few cases, and yep, the first mention was way back in the thread Part 1.

Dr.Sid said:
Worldometer added new pages for the most affected countries. Also Spain reported 557 new cases yesterday, which puts it behind Italy and Iran in daily cases. South Korea on the other hand is calming down, and it's incredibly low death rate also seems to have peaked !
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Yep, SK is the place to be.

Meanwhile if you want a horror story about the virus and its effect in real time, read this from a doctor in Italy: https://twitter.com/jasonvanschoor/status/1237142891077697538

Exactly as I've been saying for 150 pages - while the disease isn't the apocalypse, the sheer numbers make it one for hospitals.

Note the piece about other diseases contemporaneous with Covid-19 - if you have a stroke or heart attack, or need an urgent operation, during the outbreak, just buy a wooden box and save yourself the trouble.

Hospitals cannot begin to cope with the case load.

Maybe when it hits some English-speaking countries people will take a bit more notice.
 
dudalb said:
Natinals Guard called out to enforce a quarantine in New York State.
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Outstanding - this I'm looking forward to.

I recall saying exactly this to you a couple of thousand posts ago: how will enforced quarantines go down in USA? Looks like that's about to be answered.
 
"PhD biologist" writes discussing the risk of systemic healthcare failure:

Undeserved panic does no one any good. But neither does ill-informed complacency. It’s wrong to assuage the public by saying “only 2% will die.” People aren’t adequately grasping the national and global systemic burden wrought by this swift-moving of a disease.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/...4wz0UPZXwArtpJB6fSkqFf4tlZ8GuOTtHzqG3zKUFVfgc
 
Matthew Best said:
"PhD biologist" writes discussing the risk of systemic healthcare failure:

Undeserved panic does no one any good. But neither does ill-informed complacency. It’s wrong to assuage the public by saying “only 2% will die.” People aren’t adequately grasping the national and global systemic burden wrought by this swift-moving of a disease.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/...4wz0UPZXwArtpJB6fSkqFf4tlZ8GuOTtHzqG3zKUFVfgc
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The death rate is going to vary with circumstances. It's currently about 18% in King County, Washington, due to the nursing home. Not only did that concentrate the patients, but they were elderly and had underlying problems.
 
Whne the footage of New Rochelle starts ariing, the fear factor in the US is going to skyrocket.
 
dudalb said:
Natinals Guard called out to enforce a quarantine in New York State.
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I don’t think they are being called to enforce a quarantine. They are being called for logistics. I think it is a one mile diameter area. Unless it is like a trial I don’t see it helping much.
 
eeyore1954 said:
I don’t think they are being called to enforce a quarantine. They are being called for logistics. I think it is a one mile diameter area. Unless it is like a trial I don’t see it helping much.
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Porbably but the footage alone of the Guard being deployed will up the fear factor in this country considerably.
And Trumpy's "Don't Worry, Be Happy" message this morning won't help much either.
 
Matthew Best said:
"PhD biologist" writes discussing the risk of systemic healthcare failure:

Undeserved panic does no one any good. But neither does ill-informed complacency. It’s wrong to assuage the public by saying “only 2% will die.” People aren’t adequately grasping the national and global systemic burden wrought by this swift-moving of a disease.
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I think that's 100% proof of education failing.

If people could do maths, they'd get it.

They don't, and think "Oh, so it's worse than 'flu, but it's not not Captain Trips" and carry on, entirely missing the fact that hospitals will be crushed beyond recognition.

I've been making the point about overwhelmed hospital systems since January, because I can count, and my count says that New Zealand, with a total of 21 negative-pressure rooms for a country of five million people, thinking that's going to be enough, is dangerously deluded.

We should be building temporary treatment stations right now and we absolutely are not.

And most other countries are just as bad and lots of them are worse.
 
dudalb said:
Porbably but the footage alone of the Guard being deployed will up the fear factor in this country considerably.
And Trumpy's "Don't Worry, Be Happy" message this morning won't help much either.
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He already doesn't like the Governor of NY and has been regularly badmouthing him. There will likely be an attempt to dismiss it as an overreaction by an incompetent politician. With at least two mentions of "Fredo".
 
The Atheist said:
I think that's 100% proof of education failing.

If people could do maths, they'd get it.

They don't, and think "Oh, so it's worse than 'flu, but it's not not Captain Trips" and carry on, entirely missing the fact that hospitals will be crushed beyond recognition.

I've been making the point about overwhelmed hospital systems since January, because I can count, and my count says that New Zealand, with a total of 21 negative-pressure rooms for a country of five million people, thinking that's going to be enough, is dangerously deluded.

We should be building temporary treatment stations right now and we absolutely are not.

And most other countries are just as bad and lots of them are worse.
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I hope NZ's food, water, electricity and money keep flowing throughout however long this is going to last.

If too many are sick and/or isolated next spring wonder if the NZ election will have to be postponed? Wonder if Trump will postpone US election so he can stay in power longer to save the US and world?
 
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dudalb said:
Whne the footage of New Rochelle starts ariing, the fear factor in the US is going to skyrocket.
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Cuomo announced he was dispatching the National Guard to enforce the closure of “large gathering areas” within the radius, including schools, houses of worship, and other large gathering facilities effective starting Thursday and running for two weeks. The two Metro-North stations serving the area will remain open, transit sources said.

Grocery stores will not be closed, and civilians will be free to come and go from the containment area.

“We’re also going to use the National Guard in the containment area to deliver food to homes, [and] to help with the cleaning of public spaces,” said Cuomo.
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Very scary. To paraphrase The Simpsons: Isn't it about this time that people start cracking each-others heads open and feast on the goo inside?
 
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ynot said:
I hope NZ's food, water, electricity and money keep flowing throughout however long this is going to last.

If too many are sick and/or isolated next spring wonder if the NZ election will have to be postponed? Wonder if Trump will postpone US election so he can stay in power longer to save the US and world?
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I'm quite sure it will be over by then. Also I don't know about US, but here the elections are pretty calm event, I hardly ever meet anyone there.
 
https://thehill.com/latino/486793-trump-administration-ordered-immigration-courts-
The initial order, issued Monday by acting Chief Immigration Judge Christopher Santoro in an email to judges and staff, reportedly read in part, “Per our leadership, the CDC flyer is not authorized for posting in the immigration courts. If you see one (attached), please remove it. Thank you.”

The flyers explain, in English and Spanish, the proper CDC-approved procedures to minimize microbial contamination.
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This is a government at war with itself, with one branch of government trying to do something, and another trying to stop it
The NAIJ Twitter account said the association "had recommended to immigration judges that they post in courthouses the English and Spanish language versions of the CDC's 'Stop the Spread of Germs' and 'Symptoms of Coronavirus Disease 2019' posters."
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Blue Mountain said:
The Canadian cases are currently in British Columbia (west coast), Ontario and BC (the two most populous provinces, somewhat aligned with the east coast of the US.)

Canada recorded its first death from the virus yesterday: an elderly man in a nursing home in BC.
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Quebec is larger than BC, though.

Here's a link to a page that updates as new cases are confirmed: [Health Canada / Coronavirus disease (COVID-19): Outbreak update]

79 cases, 1 death.

BC cases are disproportionately high probably due to our exposure to Asian travellers.
 
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