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2019-nCoV / Corona virus Pt 2

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Is there a test which shows whether or not a person has had and recovered from Covid 1(? Not just if they are currently infected?

I guess it would have to test for Covid 19 anti-bodies. I don't know if we do that or not, or even if we can yet.
 
Trading halted for 15 minutes on the New York Stock Exchange because of the precipitous drop. Down over 7%. I don't know if that's from start of business.
 
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Trading halted for 15 minutes on the Stock Exchange because of the precipitous drop.

I have a really bad feeling about Trump's response to all this.

We know that nothing can ever be seen as his fault, but his machinations trying to assign blame to others could be terrifying.
 
Can’t find it now, but earlier I noted that the daily WHO situation report had several countries (etc) with “days since last reported case” values with a bimodal distribution: either a few (<4) or double digits (>15), with a correlation with number of reported cases.

Yesterday’s report has just two of the latter, Nepal (44) and Sri Lanka (41), both with just one case reported. The (0 to <10) distribution now extends to 9 (Nigeria!).

There are still some countries (territories, etc) with no reported cases. Which will be the very last to report a case? Perhaps North Korea? Or St Helena?
 
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My wife and I were both sick for nearly the entire month of January, with my symptoms mirroring hers but delayed by about a week. We were diagnosed as having bronchitis that led to coughing so bad our ribs hurt, followed by really, really nasty sinusitis - something I’ve never had before and wouldn’t wish on my worst enemy. Treated at a walk-in clinic with antibiotics and steroids. I was sicker for longer than I’ve ever been in my adult life. Our local Walmart pharmacist in E Tennessee said there was a lot of it going around, and some of the shelves were bare of cough syrup.

In the back of our minds we both wonder if it was undiagnosed coronavirus. The symptoms were an exact match, with the exception that neither of us ever had a fever. Without being tested, how could it be precluded that this virus was in circulation long before being identified?
Unless you traveled to Wuhan before you got sick, it was more likely something else. There just wasn't a lot here yet.

Adenovirus and flu can both do that.
 
Is there a test which shows whether or not a person has had and recovered from Covid 1(? Not just if they are currently infected?

I guess it would have to test for Covid 19 anti-bodies. I don't know if we do that or not, or even if we can yet.

There are some antibody tests being developed. They aren't in wide use yet.
 
By claiming credit for rises in the stock market which had nothing to do with him Trump was always creating a hostage to fortune. It was bound to come back to bite him eventually.
 
I have a really bad feeling about Trump's response to all this.

We know that nothing can ever be seen as his fault, but his machinations trying to assign blame to others could be terrifying.
A fairly safe prediction is that the mixed messages from the Federal administration will continue, and may get worse; greater confusion seems inevitable, unfortunately. :(
 
Forewarning: There's a NYT's article and someone on Twitter signing on as a credentialed MD with a bunch of alarmist stuff and claims about no mild cases yada yada.

Skip it. Here's the actual WHO-China report: https://www.who.int/docs/default-so...na-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf

The numbers are being wildly misinterpreted without consideration of the context.

There is one thing evidenced though: Almost no one was infected in Nov and Dec. That fits with what we know as the virus had barely begun to spread. And a mere 2 months later it is worldwide. There is no way that is consistent with only being spread to close contacts.
 
My wife and I were both sick for nearly the entire month of January, with my symptoms mirroring hers but delayed by about a week. We were diagnosed as having bronchitis that led to coughing so bad our ribs hurt, followed by really, really nasty sinusitis - something I’ve never had before and wouldn’t wish on my worst enemy. Treated at a walk-in clinic with antibiotics and steroids. I was sicker for longer than I’ve ever been in my adult life. Our local Walmart pharmacist in E Tennessee said there was a lot of it going around, and some of the shelves were bare of cough syrup.

In the back of our minds we both wonder if it was undiagnosed coronavirus. The symptoms were an exact match, with the exception that neither of us ever had a fever. Without being tested, how could it be precluded that this virus was in circulation long before being identified?

It's unlikely it was the coronavirus. Sinusitis is not part of the symptoms. Fever is basically a must. And antibiotics wouldn't help a bit. So you can ease your mind. You can still get the coronavirus ;)
 
Paraphrasing:

Pence: We don't have enough tests yet.
Trump: There are plenty of tests, anyone who wants a test gets a test.
Alex Azar: That was shorthand, what Trump meant was you can get a test if your doctor orders it.
[Also not true]
Pence: We have plenty of tests.

The news is claiming a million tests are going out.

No they aren't. They said that 2 weeks ago. There's still not enough tests to test the Life-Care Center employees. Three of them are in the hospital. And they announced they finally tested all the patients. There are only 50 left of the original 120. Not sure if the ones transferred out have been tested.

News is also reporting the US has only tested 3200 people. That's compared to 100s of thousands being tested in other countries.
 
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It was Alex Azar who made the “shorthand” comment.

The “millions of test kits will be available next week” claim is at least a week old. Anyone care to bet when, in the US, millions of test kits will actually be available?
 
It was Alex Azar who made the “shorthand” comment.

The “millions of test kits will be available next week” claim is at least a week old. Anyone care to bet when, in the US, millions of test kits will actually be available?
2 weeks.
 
Without any testing, how can we know that?
Because the new WHO-China report I linked to above found almost no cases in Wuhan in Nov and Dec (consistent with genetic tracing back to the first cases).

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2001191
On December 31, 2019, China reported a cluster of cases of pneumonia in people associated with the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market in Wuhan, Hubei Province.1 On January 7, 2020, Chinese health authorities confirmed that this cluster was associated with a novel coronavirus, 2019-nCoV.2 Although cases were originally reported to be associated with exposure to the seafood market in Wuhan, current epidemiologic data indicate that person-to-person transmission of 2019-nCoV is occurring.3-6 As of January 30, 2020, a total of 9976 cases had been reported in at least 21 countries,7 including the first confirmed case of 2019-nCoV infection in the United States, reported on January 20, 2020. Investigations are under way worldwide to better understand transmission dynamics and the spectrum of clinical illness. This report describes the epidemiologic and clinical features of the first case of 2019-nCoV infection confirmed in the United States.

It's so highly unlikely you had a case here before it really started spreading, and flu numbers were significant then.
 
Cognitive bias and bad decisions in the time of Corona

What should we do as a community?

To understand Coronavirus and the public response so far, we need to be aware of a few cognitive biases innate to all humans.

The first is “normalcy bias” during disasters. Many people tend to believe things will function as they always do. This means they underestimate the likelihood of a disaster and its subsequent effects. This is why, for example, people stay home during hurricanes or wildfires despite evacuation notices.

The second (and opposite) cognitive bias is the “overreaction”. This means that people panic and overreact in ways that may not aid the situation. For example, the current trend of individuals buying up medical masks and depleting overall community stock qualify as an overreaction.

The third cognitive bias is “attribute substitution bias”. Reputable studies show that humans instinctively try to use as little mental effort as possible. In these cases, people may base a decision on intuition or convenience instead of facts and reflection. Or, they may inadvertently answer an easier question instead of the bigger, harder one. For example, instead of answering whether it’s a good idea to go out dancing, they may respond “I’m carrying hand sanitizer”. This bias makes situations like a novel virus and a once-in-a-lifetime outbreak challenging. With information changing daily, heaps of uncertainty, and inconsistent public health messaging, many of us are at risk of ‘checking out’ of dealing with the real issues.
Dance in the time of Corona: A primer and suggestions on the novel Coronavirus and social dancing (The Dancing Grapevine, March 6, 2020)


Father and sister of coronavirus patient violate self-quarantine to attend school event (New York Post, March 9, 2020)
Family of Missouri's first coronavirus patient broke self-quarantine, attended school dance (Fox News, March 9, 2020)

 
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