Democratic caucuses and primaries

[theprestige]

I'm really surprised Warren hasn't done better. For all the grief she gets from the right, she seems like a good candidate, both ideologically and telegenically. Did her slapfight with Bernie really hurt her chances that badly?

 

[Suddenly]

I'm really surprised Warren hasn't done better. For all the grief she gets from the right, she seems like a good candidate, both ideologically and telegenically. Did her slapfight with Bernie really hurt her chances that badly?

Yes. It was bad on a ton of levels. In and of itself maybe wouldn't have been fatal but as soon as she started hiring people from the Hillary campaign she was doomed; this was just the most dramatic of the self-inflicted wounds.

If you are trying to appeal to Sanders voters, hiring Clinton staffers and launching a Clintonesque slime attack against him is just beyond stupid.

 

[dudalb]

FLorida seems to be looking like almost a lock for Biden.

 

[Delvo]

I'm really surprised Warren hasn't done better. For all the grief she gets from the right, she seems like a good candidate, both ideologically and telegenically. Did her slapfight with Bernie really hurt her chances that badly?

Even before she started with the lies about Bernie, her decline started when she turned against universal medical coverage and megadonor money. Then she capped it off with some Hillaryous sex-whining. She pretty much decided to suddenly start shooting herself in the feet, knees, hips, & one arm as much as possible at every turn.

 

[Distracted1]

I'm really surprised Warren hasn't done better. For all the grief she gets from the right, she seems like a good candidate, both ideologically and telegenically. Did her slapfight with Bernie really hurt her chances that badly?

The nature of this system has not worked in her favor.

I hope she stays in to the end. Not likely that she can without some support, soon she will probably have to give up for financial reasons.

Would be great fun to see her on the debate stage with only Sanders and Biden on the 15th.
A nightmare for the two of them though, I suspect.

 

[d4m10n]

Even before she started with the lies about Bernie, her decline started when she turned against universal medical coverage and megadonor money. Then she capped it off with some Hillaryous sex-whining.

I've no idea what any of this is about.

Not even sure where to start.

Sex-whining? Lies? Megadonors?

 

[The Great Zaganza]

Young Sanders supporters didn't show up for Super Tuesday, and so he lost, big time.
There is still time for them to mobilize and show that this year they are a critical constituency.

 

[d4m10n]

Young Sanders supporters didn't show up for Super Tuesday, and so he lost, big time.

On point: https://www.usatoday.com/story/news...th-votes-fell-short-compared-2016/4947795002/

 

[Beelzebuddy]

Young Sanders supporters didn't show up for Super Tuesday, and so he lost, big time.
There is still time for them to mobilize and show that this year they are a critical constituency.

I don't think that was the deciding factor. Late deciders were, i.e. I think Biden caught some dead cat bounce from the other moderates dropping out. I'm basing that on the fact that he won Minnesota, which was so completely unexpected that only 0.5% of 538's simulations considered it. I imagine his voters in that state weren't thinking "we like this Joe character" so much as "well, poop, Klobuchar dropped out, so who do I vote for now... Biden?"

I'm predicting a drop in Biden's support after the next head-to-head with Sanders, as people start taking a look at him beyond "he's the guy whom the guy I liked said to vote for at the last minute." I also predict the media will paint it up sensationally as a calamitous turn of the tables instead of just a correction.

 

[Delvo]

There wasn't any sudden unexpected drop in Bernie voters, but, at this point, expecting the anti-Bernians to start caring at all about facts would just be silly.

 

[d4m10n]

There wasn't any sudden unexpected drop in Bernie voters, but, at this point, expecting the anti-Bernians to start caring at all about facts would just be silly.

You guys were actually expecting under-30 turnout to go down from 2016?

 

[Bob001]

Jill Biden for President:

A vegan protester storming the stage of Joe Biden's victory speech on Super Tuesday got tackled by two unlikely linebackers: the candidate's wife, Jill Biden, and his senior adviser, Symone Sanders.

https://www.buzzfeednews.com/articl...sters-jill-biden-symone-sanders-super-tuesday

 

[theprestige]

You guys were actually expecting under-30 turnout to go down from 2016?

There wasn't a sudden unexpected drop, there was a gradual unexpected drop?

There was no drop; the numbers were always that low?

 

[Trebuchet]

Gonna go mark our ballots now. Reluctantly for Biden, because I think Bernie would lose to Trump and no one else is left.
Then I have to figure out how to seal the envelopes because the state doesn't want us licking them.

 

[Segnosaur]

Gonna go mark our ballots now. Reluctantly for Biden, because I think Bernie would lose to Trump and no one else is left.
Then I have to figure out how to seal the envelopes because the state doesn't want us licking them.

Could you urinate on the envelope's glue instead?

 

[Trebuchet]

Could you urinate on the envelope's glue instead?

I wish I had thought of that!

 

[Segnosaur]

Young Sanders supporters didn't show up for Super Tuesday, and so he lost, big time.

I don't think that was the deciding factor. Late deciders were, i.e. I think Biden caught some dead cat bounce from the other moderates dropping out.

I don't think "dead cat bounce" is the proper term here.

A dead count bounce suggests a temporary rise during a period of lengthy decline. Things go up, but its only for a short period before things start to go down again.

I am sure Biden did get some benefit from the other moderates dropping out... but given things like policy alignment, the "not Sanders" factor, etc., I don't think Biden's improvement is temporary.

(Not that its guaranteed he will win the nomination... just that his improvement isn't temporary.)

I'm predicting a drop in Biden's support after the next head-to-head with Sanders...

I think Sanders will do better in the next set of primaries, not because people will be re-evaluating Biden, but because the next primaries involve states that Sanders won handily in 2016... Idaho, Washington, and North Dakota were all states that Sanders beat Clinton by more than 10%.

 

[Distracted1]

I don't think "dead cat bounce" is the proper term here.

A dead count bounce suggests a temporary rise during a period of lengthy decline. Things go up, but its only for a short period before things start to go down again.

I am sure Biden did get some benefit from the other moderates dropping out... but given things like policy alignment, the "not Sanders" factor, etc., I don't think Biden's improvement is temporary.

(Not that its guaranteed he will win the nomination... just that his improvement isn't temporary.)

I think Sanders will do better in the next set of primaries, not because people will be re-evaluating Biden, but because the next primaries involve states that Sanders won handily in 2016... Idaho, Washington, and North Dakota were all states that Sanders beat Clinton by more than 10%.

If Biden wins over Sanders in these States, maybe it will settle the old feud about Clintons' electability.

Biden being "Clinton 2.0", a stronger performance for him in these areas indicates that it was something about HRC herself that made her a particularly bad candidate.

 

[JoeMorgue]

Biden being "Clinton 2.0", a stronger performance for him in these areas indicates that it was something about HRC herself that made her a particularly bad candidate.

I think "we" (speaking generally) spend a lot of time data-mining and reading the metaphorical tea leaves and moneyballing trends trying to figure out the horrid complicated mess that is "electibility" when at the end of the day 9 times out of 10 voters vote based on initial gut impressions more then anything else.

I think very, very rarely on elections won or lost on anything deeper than a broad "Uhhh I just don't like so and so."

In other words I think we put a lot more thought into how other people are going to vote then a lot of people put into how they are going to vote.

 

[Crossbow]

Young Sanders supporters didn't show up for Super Tuesday, and so he lost, big time.
There is still time for them to mobilize and show that this year they are a critical constituency.

I suppose that if large numbers of young Bernie supporters actually do start showing up and actually do vote for him in the upcoming elections, then Bernie may actually be to get the nomination after all.

However, considering that large numbers of young Bernie supporters did not turn up when Bernie had a decent chance of getting the nomination, then I do not expect that large numbers of your Bernie supporters will show up now that his nomination is becoming quite unlikely.