Merged 2019-nCoV / Corona virus

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Roboramma said:
The prediction at the forecasting website Good Judgement Project at the moment on the question of how many confirmed cases there will be by March 20th has "between 100,000 and 200,000" at 71%.

More than 200,000 is sitting at only 17%.
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Considering there are 90,000 right now, I'd say the 100-200k is way too low.
 
I was wondering if a service person might refuse to enter the home of an infected person. It could get weird.

I think people are stocking up on things like antacids because they anticipate not being able to buy them for months or longer. Some folks take them with each meal though it isn't recommended.

I heard somebody say that people on Facebook are recommending trying to get several months of your prescription medicines in case you can't get what you need.
 
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I think it is worth bearing in mind that a lot of clinics and hospitals are going to be inundated either with people with the virus or those who suspect they have it.

Here in Japan, people who want to get hay fever medication from their doctor have to get in long lines.

(Japan has a bit of a weird system, to be honest, people go to the doctor all the time and medication which you can usually buy OTC often has to be prescribed here. Fortunately I stock up on a lot of medicine in the UK whenever I go back because Japanese medicine is often pretty weak.)
 
When the number of local cases gets really high people are going to avoid crowds. But it's always crowded at the government services like Public Aid (social services) and drivers license facilities, Social Security, etc.
 
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I was at a Target today and they had enough toilet paper for six armies. Immense quantities. But they were sold out of hand sanitizer.
 
Iran frees 54,000 inmates in order to reduce the spread of the virus
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/03/world/coronavirus-live-news-updates.html
Probably a good move, just in terms of spreading infection. My guess is that things are going to truly explode in Iran first, they are not prepared for this. 23 of their MPs even have the virus. The official numbers are probably more out of wack than the reality on the ground compared to many other countries.
 
The Atheist said:
I thought China's response was sensible and it's proven highly effective.
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I sometimes rag on China and the initial response of the local CP of trying to cover it up was pretty bad. But I have to give them some credit. By publishing the genome in early Jan. they gave the World a head start. And, as extreme as it was, their social distancing probably saved a lot of lives. And the relatively slow increase of new cases, given the extent of the initial spread is a strong indicator they have brought R0 well below 1. In the meantime here in the USA we seem to be caught with our pants down. It's appalling that the initial test kits had limited availability, were flawed, and that, until just a few days ago, people weren't even tested no matter how severe the clinical condition was if they didn't have a known contact with another infected person or other indication of exposure.

Also, Chinese scientists have been the major contributors of raw data on Github to share information databases and program models worldwide.
 
marting said:
I sometimes rag on China and the initial response of the local CP of trying to cover it up was pretty bad. But I have to give them some credit. By publishing the genome in early Jan. they gave the World a head start. And, as extreme as it was, their social distancing probably saved a lot of lives. And the relatively slow increase of new cases, given the extent of the initial spread is a strong indicator they have brought R0 well below 1. In the meantime here in the USA we seem to be caught with our pants down. It's appalling that the initial test kits had limited availability, were flawed, and that, until just a few days ago, people weren't even tested no matter how severe the clinical condition was if they didn't have a known contact with another infected person or other indication of exposure.

Also, Chinese scientists have been the major contributors of raw data on Github to share information databases and program models worldwide.
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I will certainly give a lot of credit to Chinese medical scientists.

The government, qualified credit. They have still a number of serious blemishes against them for their treatment of a number of citizens including of doctors and journalists.

The response by a number of politicians around the world has been pathetic, even with the clear warnings that have been sounded.

(Maybe South Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong, Macao and Vietnam have responded well - most other countries less so).
 
portlandatheist said:
Probably a good move, just in terms of spreading infection. My guess is that things are going to truly explode in Iran first, they are not prepared for this. 23 of their MPs even have the virus. The official numbers are probably more out of wack than the reality on the ground compared to many other countries.
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Pretty sure they already have exploded - I reckon the known cases should be many thousand above what they're showing. I also think Italy's probably in the same boat.

marting said:
I sometimes rag on China and the initial response of the local CP of trying to cover it up was pretty bad. But I have to give them some credit. By publishing the genome in early Jan. they gave the World a head start. And, as extreme as it was, their social distancing probably saved a lot of lives. And the relatively slow increase of new cases, given the extent of the initial spread is a strong indicator they have brought R0 well below 1. In the meantime here in the USA we seem to be caught with our pants down.
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If it weren't such a deadly little bastard, I'd be inclined to laugh at the stupid western governments, because I think they're all about to caught with out pants down, not just USA.

angrysoba said:
The response by a number of politicians around the world has been pathetic, even with the clear warnings that have been sounded.
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Whatever else happens, It's been an interesting psychological experiment - western governments seem to have taken the option of trying to keep markets afloat by not instituting sensible measures that would hurt economic activity. NZ is a perfect example - we can't upset the tourist industry, but if we had, we'd have been able to avoid it entirely.

The dumbest part is, it's going to be economically worse now, and will cost hundreds of thousands of lives, if not millions.

I wrote a piece the other day that said this was going to be an earth-changing event, and it looks more and more like it every day. Every survivor will have a family member or someone close to them die. I just hope they use the experience to demand change.
 
The Atheist said:
Considering there are 90,000 right now, I'd say the 100-200k is way too low.
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I made my prediction as over 200,000 at something like 90% (all predictions are given probabilistically) a couple of weeks ago. At that time the crowd forecast for that option had a much lower probability than it does now.

Still the numbers in China aren't rising much and for the rest of the world to contribute another more than 100,000 confirmed cases in just over two weeks... the timing seems a little tight for that. I don't rule it out but their numbers don't seem that outrageous to me.
 
arthwollipot said:
It's possible. Apparently if you order food delivery in China, they will set the food down and walk away, allowing you to pick it up without coming into close proximity.
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In my apartment building people who don't live there aren't even allowed in to the building.

Delivery is left on the street (about 100meters from the lobby, at the gate where cars can enter).

At least that's how it was a week ago. I decided to take a holiday and am in Thailand now. Wasn't enjoying being locked up in doors all the time, and I couldn't work anyway. It's nice here.
 
Skeptic Ginger said:
Four pints of mucus in the lungs, really?

I'm going to stick my neck out here without checking and say that is absurd. We'd all be drowning.

That wouldn't be your lungs anyway, it would be your bronchi and trachea.

And I do use dextromethorphan as a cough suppressant, again, when you need to control the symptom. There are times you do.
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This is only about 1ml / minute, and the mucus is being constantly cleared.
https://cdn.ps.emap.com/wp-content/...utum-production-in-the-respiratory-system.pdf

Most people in normal usage include the airways below the neck as part of the lungs.
 
The Atheist said:
One thing I will add, I hope the Chinese testing is showing Remdesivir or one of the other antivirals is working, because boy oh boy, the world is in desperate need of a treatment right now.

So far, so good on Remdesivir: https://www.drugtargetreview.com/ne...ed-for-remdesivir-potential-coronavirus-drug/

I'll certainly be trying to get my hands on some if I get covid-19.
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The problem may be resistance developing, RNA viruses tend to mutate at a higher rate than DNA viruses. Manufacturing might also be an issue. I guess they would limit its use to those who had serious illness rather than those with mild disease.
 
Planigale said:
The problem may be resistance developing, RNA viruses tend to mutate at a higher rate than DNA viruses.
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Yep, I've mentioned mutations much earlier in the thread.

Planigale said:
Manufacturing might also be an issue. I guess they would limit its use to those who had serious illness rather than those with mild disease.
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Quite right - those with mild cases wouldn't need it and shouldn't get it.

I think there's a case to be made that anyone sick enough to be sent to hospital should be given it. The tests aren't yet complete, but the chances of recovering once you get to hospital aren't great and the window for treatment is pretty short. Looks to me like it would be worth trying given the lack of alternatives.
 
Active cases drop below 40,000.

Turkey conspicuous by its absence from list of Covid countries.
 
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