Merged 2019-nCoV / Corona virus

[The Atheist]

When trump and pence send police after doctors for talking you'll see a lot more

I don't think there's any chance of that happening.

When trump and pence start welding people into their houses you'll see a 2nd amendment fueled correction

I made that comment a long way back - that I'd like to see USA set up armed road blocks to keep towns quarantined.

 

[pipelineaudio]

I don't think there's any chance of that happening.

Then I think that answers your question about why people haven't been as quick to hit trump as they were on china

 

[rjh01]

Forget about mortality rate, this is why you should be worried about coronavirus

The main risk of the coronavirus outbreak isn’t that you’re going to get sick and die, it’s that so many people are going to get sick so quickly that our healthcare services and infrastructure are going to be completely overwhelmed.

Not sure who this person is, but most of what he says has been mentioned in this thread. He puts it in one place. One thing that is not mentioned anywhere is what % of the population will get the virus? This is probably because it is far too early for that sort of fact to be known.

 

[The Atheist]

Not sure who this person is, but most of what he says has been mentioned in this thread. He puts it in one place. One thing that is not mentioned anywhere is what % of the population will get the virus? This is probably because it is far too early for that sort of fact to be known.

He's definitely been reading my posts - I must have mentioned health systems crashing 100 times so far.

The best estimate of infection is 40-70% of the population.

Regardless of how many die from covid-19, thousands more will die due to health services being broken.

I'm pleased to see at least one other person who gets it. It's exactly why we need to use extreme measures to contain the spread.

Just hope either remdesvir or chloroquine works as treatment.

 

[ynot]

He's definitely been reading my posts - I must have mentioned health systems crashing 100 times so far.

The best estimate of infection is 40-70% of the population.

Regardless of how many die from covid-19, thousands more will die due to health services being broken.

I'm pleased to see at least one other person who gets it. It's exactly why we need to use extreme measures to contain the spread.

Just hope either remdesvir or chloroquine works as treatment.

And you've definitely been reading my mind! Everything you say is what I've been thinking. The possibly dire ramifications of how this will negatively effect economies has been underestimated (or under-discussed). Good thread with good comment and info.

 

[Abooga]

Here in Spain most people I meet are completely unconcerned and uninformed about this, thanks to the tightly run and controlled national media (in these kind of crisises is when you realise how it´s so well controlled and guided) that has been concentrating in maintaining the calm. Quite irresponsibly, IMO. They should have begun to spread practical information about how to minimise the dangers. Last week "El Pais" ran a main page feature by an "expert", with the headline "The magnitude of the problem won´t be greater than that of the flu"... https://elpais.com/sociedad/2020/02/26/actualidad/1582744701_468958.html
Yesterday, they seem to start to wake up, the main page article says "How does corona compare to flu? numbers say it´s worse, more contagious and probably more lethal"
https://elpais.com/ciencia/2020-03-02/como-se-compara-el-coronavirus-con-la-gripe-los-numeros-dicen-que-es-peor.html
We´ve know this for how long, a month? Well done, "El Pais", what a piece of crap rag...
(and the same kind of thing in every other newspaper)

 

[novaphile]

So...

Breaking news.

It is now being estimated that the virus can exist on hard surfaces (which have not been sterilised) for up to nine days.

I popped into the local supermarket this morning to buy some tissues on the way to work. To my amazement, I was confronted by many empty shelves. I didn't have time to work out what was sold out, but toilet paper was definitely one of the aisles.

The supermarket had also taken delivery of some pallets of spring water. It hadn't been my intention to buy any, but I figured that I may as well buy one container while I was there (a box, like a wine cask).

At work, people are working frantically behind the scenes to identify who can work from home, and how. We don't currently have enough licences for the remote desktop software that we need, and some have been tasked to rectify that.

This is in response to federal statements about ramping up Australia's response, and potential quarantine efforts.

 

[Planigale]

He's definitely been reading my posts - I must have mentioned health systems crashing 100 times so far.

The best estimate of infection is 40-70% of the population.

Regardless of how many die from covid-19, thousands more will die due to health services being broken.

I'm pleased to see at least one other person who gets it. It's exactly why we need to use extreme measures to contain the spread.

Just hope either remdesvir or chloroquine works as treatment.

This model for the UK which I referenced above estimates 80% will be infected.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.12.20022566v1.full.pdf
The UK is modelling on 80% infected, 50% of infected symptomatic, 4% requiring hospital admission and 1% requiring high level care. Noticeably no one is predicting mortality, but one can assume it is closely related to the number needing high level care. The most critical issue is slowing the spread so that the epidemic occurs over a long period. Given a peak predicted in 4 months, ie June / July and a 1 million infected at peak, this suggests 40,000 people needing admission with pneumonia at the peak (average length of stay 1 week?). On a symmetric model the epidemic should be over by November. So for the UK about 2 million excess hospital admission over 8 months.

For comparison there 200,000 cases of pneumonia annually in the UK and 12,000 deaths. There are about 18,000 emergency admissions daily so over 8 months covid 19 would add 8,000 admissions a day, but obviously at peak this will be much higher how high depends on the shape of the curve. The model suggests that actually most of the burden will be over 60 days, suggesting more like 30,000 excess admissions / day.

 

[novaphile]

For us, the peak coronavirus will be at exactly the same time as peak influenza.

We don't currently have enough beds for influenza.

Time for me to update my will.

 

[The Atheist]

And you've definitely been reading my mind! Everything you say is what I've been thinking. The possibly dire ramifications of how this will negatively effect economies has been underestimated (or under-discussed). Good thread with good comment and info.

Thanks mate!

What gets me is how administrations can't be aware of it all - the numbers have been out for a while, as under:

This model for the UK which I referenced above estimates 80% will be infected.
...

The model suggests that actually most of the burden will be over 60 days, suggesting more like 30,000 excess admissions / day.

It'll be like that everywhere and it'll be ugly.

I've said this will be a world-changing event, and that looks like becoming the truth.

We´ve know this for how long, a month? Well done, "El Pais", what a piece of crap rag...
(and the same kind of thing in every other newspaper)

Yeah, that's pretty stupid.

How on earth do these people think that kind of crap will help?

 

[The Atheist]

Here in Spain ...

I meant to mention how much I love the irony of the Spanish media doing that when the 1918/19 outbreak was named Spanish 'Flu because Spain's was the only media giving accurate reports on it, which made them look much more affected than all the other countries, which hushed it up.

 

[The Atheist]

For us, the peak coronavirus will be at exactly the same time as peak influenza.

That is an unknown right now. It may well hit right now.

We don't currently have enough beds for influenza.

That's the point I've been making from the start - nobody does. Every winter, every country overflows with influenza patients.

Time for me to update my will.

I had that same thought!

Nothing like being prepared.

 

[angrysoba]

Here in Spain most people I meet are completely unconcerned and uninformed about this, thanks to the tightly run and controlled national media (in these kind of crisises is when you realise how it´s so well controlled and guided) that has been concentrating in maintaining the calm. Quite irresponsibly, IMO. They should have begun to spread practical information about how to minimise the dangers. Last week "El Pais" ran a main page feature by an "expert", with the headline "The magnitude of the problem won´t be greater than that of the flu"... https://elpais.com/sociedad/2020/02/26/actualidad/1582744701_468958.html
Yesterday, they seem to start to wake up, the main page article says "How does corona compare to flu? numbers say it´s worse, more contagious and probably more lethal"
https://elpais.com/ciencia/2020-03-02/como-se-compara-el-coronavirus-con-la-gripe-los-numeros-dicen-que-es-peor.html
We´ve know this for how long, a month? Well done, "El Pais", what a piece of crap rag...
(and the same kind of thing in every other newspaper)

A Spanish friend of mine here in Japan is utterly Pooh-poohing the significance of this. He reckons the response to this should be no different to that of the flu, and he was furious at the school closures. I have tried to explain as calmly as possible that you don’t have to lose your mind to treat this seriously.

 

[Abooga]

A Spanish friend of mine here in Japan is utterly Pooh-poohing the significance of this. He reckons the response to this should be no different to that of the flu, and he was furious at the school closures. I have tried to explain as calmly as possible that you don’t have to lose your mind to treat this seriously.

He´s probably been reading Spanish media only...

 

[angrysoba]

Forget about mortality rate, this is why you should be worried about coronavirus


Not sure who this person is, but most of what he says has been mentioned in this thread. He puts it in one place. One thing that is not mentioned anywhere is what % of the population will get the virus? This is probably because it is far too early for that sort of fact to be known.

In that photo of Lincoln hospital with the tents for the overflow, is it the wheelie dumpsters next to them that is the most disturbing sight?

 

[Darat]

So...



Breaking news.



It is now being estimated that the virus can exist on hard surfaces (which have not been sterilised) for up to nine days.



I popped into the local supermarket this morning to buy some tissues on the way to work. To my amazement, I was confronted by many empty shelves. I didn't have time to work out what was sold out, but toilet paper was definitely one of the aisles.



The supermarket had also taken delivery of some pallets of spring water. It hadn't been my intention to buy any, but I figured that I may as well buy one container while I was there (a box, like a wine cask).



At work, people are working frantically behind the scenes to identify who can work from home, and how. We don't currently have enough licences for the remote desktop software that we need, and some have been tasked to rectify that.



This is in response to federal statements about ramping up Australia's response, and potential quarantine efforts.

A friend of mine who works in a merchant bank (he actually works not a banker) and they were yesterday being asked who has broadband at home, do they have a laptop they can use and so on. This is so they can continue to work if they have to shut the building down. (It's in Mayfair.) Apparently they'll arrange to have laptops couriered to people if necessary and so on.

Which all sounds fine contingency planning, but is based on the usual "disaster contingency" planning. I said to him have they considered if the courier company has to close its depot, if the broadband company has to close their building and there is a problem with your broadband?

Contingency planning at companies are meant to cover something like the HQ burning to the ground, those plans can't deal with all your service provider's buildings also burning to the ground at the same time.

So many people have an unrealistic idea of what it takes to maintain our society, I've literally had conversations with people saying they aren't bothered if the supermarket runs out of X, they'll just order it from Amazon... Or use Tesco's home delivery service...

 

[Darat]

This model for the UK which I referenced above estimates 80% will be infected.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.12.20022566v1.full.pdf

The UK is modelling on 80% infected, 50% of infected symptomatic, 4% requiring hospital admission and 1% requiring high level care. Noticeably no one is predicting mortality, but one can assume it is closely related to the number needing high level care. The most critical issue is slowing the spread so that the epidemic occurs over a long period. Given a peak predicted in 4 months, ie June / July and a 1 million infected at peak, this suggests 40,000 people needing admission with pneumonia at the peak (average length of stay 1 week?). On a symmetric model the epidemic should be over by November. So for the UK about 2 million excess hospital admission over 8 months.



For comparison there 200,000 cases of pneumonia annually in the UK and 12,000 deaths. There are about 18,000 emergency admissions daily so over 8 months covid 19 would add 8,000 admissions a day, but obviously at peak this will be much higher how high depends on the shape of the curve. The model suggests that actually most of the burden will be over 60 days, suggesting more like 30,000 excess admissions / day.

Yeah I think we have to plan on most people getting it not plan on stopping it, so we need to slow down the rate of infection. Which means a long period of restrictions, this is again something which the Chinese approach is probably less painful of course that is disregarding the human rights issues. They will be back quicker because they will have in effect forced the infection of a lot of people in a very short period in a sealed off area. Somehow I can't see the UK deciding to quarantine by force entire towns and cities.

Hopefully we can slow the rate of infection enough to be able to cope.

 

[angrysoba]

Yeah I think we have to plan on most people getting it not plan on stopping it, so we need to slow down the rate of infection. Which means a long period of restrictions, this is again something which the Chinese approach is probably less painful of course that is disregarding the human rights issues. They will be back quicker because they will have in effect forced the infection of a lot of people in a very short period in a sealed off area. Somehow I can't see the UK deciding to quarantine by force entire towns and cities.

Hopefully we can slow the rate of infection enough to be able to cope.

Re:hilited, I have not read anywhere about how the plan is to forcibly infect people. From what I understand it is to forcibly prevent infection.

 

[Darat]

Re:hilited, I have not read anywhere about how the plan is to forcibly infect people. From what I understand it is to forcibly prevent infection.

You misunderstood my post. I said "in effect" not that they had a plan to use force to infect individuals. But by isolating their towns it has allowed the infection to spread in a town, none of the precautions will prevent the majority of the people in that area getting infected, they will simply slow it down a little. So they will (as long as reinfection isn't a major issue) have a town ready to completely reopen. Whereas in somewhere like the UK we will have outbreaks all over the entire country for months and months causing large scale continuous disruption across the entire country.

 

[Belz...]

We probably have a million cases already and the true number of total will never show up until the pandemic finishes and antibody counts can be made.

Well, obviously we can't speculate into the million. There will probably be a lot of undocumented cases in the end because people just thought they had the flu and saw it through the end without special treatment.

So yeah, let's wait for official figures, at least.