2020 Democratic Candidates Tracker Part III

[Distracted1]

Seems that Warren has a choice to make. Follow the lead of Pete and Klobuchar to pull out of the race and let the voters decide who the candidate should be, or run as a spoiler for a fractious brokered convention.

I like having her in.
Interesting to see who she will pull the most votes from.
Logically, it would seem to be Sanders since her politics are closer to his.
Yet, Sanders dominance on the progressive side makes her appear to some to be a moderate- which would siphon off Biden votes.

If she pulls from them both, isn't that a good argument for making her our Candidate?

 

[TurkeysGhost]

I like having her in.
Interesting to see who she will pull the most votes from.
Logically, it would seem to be Sanders since her politics are closer to his.
Yet, Sanders dominance on the progressive side makes her appear to some to be a moderate- which would siphon off Biden votes.

If she pulls from them both, isn't that a good argument for making her our Candidate?

I don't think she'll pull that many votes, but 10-15% could easily be enough to prevent either frontrunner from hitting that 50% threshold.

I think the worst case scenario would be two frontrunners coming in with close non-majority delegate counts and a couple spoilers way behind making a majority impossible.

Say it's Bernie and Biden at about 40% each, and Warren and Bloomberg with 10% each. Neither Bernie nor Biden would have good reason to concede and there would be no decisive winner. That's a nightmare scenario.

 

[Brainster]

Don't look now but FiveThirtyEight is predicting a 65% chance of a brokered convention.

 

[TragicMonkey]

I like having her in.
Interesting to see who she will pull the most votes from.
Logically, it would seem to be Sanders since her politics are closer to his.
Yet, Sanders dominance on the progressive side makes her appear to some to be a moderate- which would siphon off Biden votes.

If she pulls from them both, isn't that a good argument for making her our Candidate?

Indeed!

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

With Steyer and Buttigieg gone, Super Tuesday would be quite the boon for Sanders: early voters for the dropouts would arguably have switched to Biden rather than Bernie, given the opportunity.

Both Klobuchar and Buttigieg have endorsed Biden.

 

[JoeMorgue]

Do we actually have any firm data on "endorsements" doing anything as far as the numbers go?

 

[Distracted1]

Do we actually have any firm data on "endorsements" doing anything as far as the numbers go?

Probably helps out the endorsee a little bit. But it demonstrates what is probably already pretty obvious- that the Klobuchar and Buttigieg supporters are also in the "not Sanders" camp.

 

[plague311]

Probably helps out the endorsee a little bit. But it demonstrates what is probably already pretty obvious- that the Klobuchar and Buttigieg supporters are also in the "not Sanders" camp.

I was going to say something similar. It would be tough to monitor because the Venn Diagram of those voting blocks have a significant overlap. Even if they didn't endorse him their voting block would shift to him anyway. Although, I'd bet a >10% would go to Sanders or Warren as well.

 

[Delphic Oracle]

It's a bit worrying when Democrats or Democrat sympathizers pour fuel on a leading candidate for Republicans to drop a match on.

Time being finite as it is, a lot of the problem is we spend time worrying about what the other side "might do" that could be spent deciding who we are, what we stand for, and how to pitch that to the public.

Constant backpedaling and quibbling when pressed makes us look like we don't even believe our own worldview, which encourages people to think we're saying one thing but plan to do otherwise (which isn't inaccurate to my mind, but that's a different can of worms).

We revile "doubling down on stupid" but that's just as bad as not doubling down on (or running away from) good ideas.

 

[Delphic Oracle]

Again I'm aware my "credibility" goes down when ever I fail to say how awesome and perfect Sanders is.



Same thing happens when I say something bad about Trump oddly enough.



Weird how that's working.

I'm a viiiiiictiiiiiiiiim!

Good god.

Got anything but that weak-ass personalized dig to fall back on?

 

[Brainster]

Probably helps out the endorsee a little bit. But it demonstrates what is probably already pretty obvious- that the Klobuchar and Buttigieg supporters are also in the "not Sanders" camp.

The supporters don't always break up that neatly though.

In the Morning Consult poll, which was conducted before Buttigieg's exit between February 23 and 27, the plurality of his supporters said Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders would be their top second pick for president.

Twenty-one percent of Buttigieg supporters who participated in the poll, which saw a total of 13,428 Democratic primary voters surveyed, said they would go for Sanders as a second choice

 

[Distracted1]

The supporters don't always break up that neatly though.

Yes, again with the "plurality".

1 out of 5 going for Sanders.
%80 going "not Sanders"

 

[Cabbage]

As long as you're still mad about me about something, that's what is important.

Can't you just stop misrepresenting me for just one second????

I never said I'm mad at you. I specifically said you have a credibility issue, because you persistently straw man me.

And you're doing it again in the very post I am currently responding to.

Try, once, engaging with me honestly and in good faith.

Are you capable?

 

[JoeMorgue]

Can't you just stop misrepresenting me for just one second????

I never said I'm mad at you. I specifically said you have a credibility issue, because you persistently straw man me.

And you're doing it again in the very post I am currently responding to.

Try, once, engaging with me honestly and in good faith.

Are you capable?

It's a mute point. Looks your boy getting the nomination is gonna happen regardless of whether or not it's a good idea. I just hope we get a clear front runner to get behind sooner rather then later, the longer the horse isn't clear the worse for all of us.

So you're getting your way. Don't be a sore winner.

I hope it all works out for the best.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

It would be. Let's be clear here, though. It wasn't out of nowhere. He was very directly asked about Castro's regime and the first thing he did was to condemn it.

Pushing claims like "model for social policy" and "out of nowhere without being promoted" is dishonest, by the look of it. Feel free to keep poking at the politically stupid angle of it, but please, stop completely misrepresenting what actually happened.

No it wasn't out of nowhere. The questions were put to Sanders because of videos of him praising Castro and the Sandinistas from years ago (early 80s).

His answers now are pretty defensive and he cares more about defending his socialist ideology than in how he presents his views to voters.

 

[Meadmaker]

And then there were four.

Bernie, Liz, Joe or Mike?

I'm not liking anyone. It will be Biden or warren? Unless super Tuesday changes everything.

 

[angrysoba]

And then there were four.

Bernie, Liz, Joe or Mike?

I'm not liking anyone. It will be Biden or warren? Unless super Tuesday changes everything.

Huh? Biden or Warren? I think more likely Biden or Sanders. And Super Tuesday will cement the two horse race.

 

[Delphic Oracle]

Yes, again with the "plurality".

1 out of 5 going for Sanders.
%80 going "not Sanders"

More than 80% going "not <any other candidate>."

It's a mixture of sad and amusing that so many keep tripping over this same basic error.

Being selective in showing the amount of vote not received in a race split several ways while making sure to never point out or admit "that's still better than any other candidate" on that same issue reeks of bias.

 

[Cabbage]

It's a mute point. Looks your boy getting the nomination is gonna happen regardless of whether or not it's a good idea. I just hope we get a clear front runner to get behind sooner rather then later, the longer the horse isn't clear the worse for all of us.

So you're getting your way. Don't be a sore winner.

I hope it all works out for the best.

None of that excuses your misrepresentation of me.

I apologized for my misrepresentation of you, you know.

 

[Segnosaur]

And then there were four.

Bernie, Liz, Joe or Mike?

And not one under the age of 70.

Sheesh... they could hold the next Democratic debate at a Cracker Barrel, so that they can all get the seniors discount after.

By the way, I think there are 5... Tulsi Gabbard is still in the race. And at 38 years old, she is less than half the age of 3/4s of the remaining candidates.