Merged 2019-nCoV / Corona virus

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Meanwhile, the virus has broken loose here in King County.

A new public health email today:

"We have been informed by Public Health – Seattle & King County that there are multiple cases of coronavirus in King County, including multiple people who are hospitalized. Sadly, one individual has also died.

These illnesses are associated with an immunocompromised population in a nursing home and a dialysis facility in Kirkland. Public health officials are working closely with their leadership, staff, and families to contain and manage the situation at these facilities."
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And this from a different email update:
Officials said approximately 27 of 108 residents and 25 of 180 staff of the life care center have some symptoms and are being tested.
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Dr.Sid said:
Everybody in the flight was tested. People with symptoms and without it. People without symptoms are otherwise usually not tested. So that's the difference. Nobody really knows how many light cases there is. And how many of those can spread it.
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Exactly.
 
The Atheist said:
I'm more looking at the casualty rate than the infection rate, because the infection rate isn't adding up.
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Yeah, unlike deaths infection rates have many variables that make it intrinsically less reliable.

I also base my estimate that R0 has dropped under 1 in China on deaths, not infections. Pretty clear R0 dropped below 1 between 2 and 4 weeks ago in China based on deaths.

However, outside China it's a different story. China may will be under 50% of the total by the end of March.
 
rjh01 said:
This URL and the graph that shows the number of cases outside China is getting rather scary. It suggests that the Atheist is an optometrist and is owed an apology from anyone who said otherwise.
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Well, he saw it better than anybody, and is helping us do the same.
 
angrysoba said:
What more proof do you need that the Evangelicals are worshipping the true God? First it was that cult in South Korea, then it was Shia Islam, now Catholicism.

Of course, if he gets better, maybe it will prove the Catholics were right and he was saved by a miracle, as foretold by the prophet Trump.
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Pope Francis is in Italy and is exposed to a lot of people. I hope not, though, there've been a few issues but in general he's been one of the better Popes.
 
Dr.Sid said:
So do we have first celebrity ? I mean if you don't count Iranian secretary of Health ministry.
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Looks too coincidental to be anything else. I hope it doesn't get him - he's the least offensive pope of all time.

rjh01 said:
This URL and the graph that shows the number of cases outside China is getting rather scary. It suggests that the Atheist is an optometrist...
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Mate, don't say that - the Chinese doctor who croaked was an optometrist!

Skeptic Ginger said:
Meanwhile, the virus has broken loose here in King County.
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That surely adds a lot of weight to the scenario about the under-estimate of cases - it's clearly been spreading in USA for at least several weeks.

I reckon the sucker is everywhere and again look back to H1N1 as a guide - the Mexico City lockdown didn't work and nor did the Wuhan/Hubei lockdown.

It's out and about and the only hope for the NH is an early summer and this disease not being so easy to catch in summer. That hope may be forlorn, because I reckon it's running rampant in NZ and will hit the hospitals inside the week.

The upside to that is that it's 1/10th as deadly as we thought. The sheer numbers will still be an issue, though.
 
Let’s hope climate change ends this pandemic quick! That’s one in the eye for the tree huggers!

ETA: take that, Greta Thunberg!
 
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Dabop said:
LOL- now I know where to go to to get new glasses at least...
:D

Traffic levels still down, morning peak hour was still far less than normal- despite only a couple of cases in Australia- wonder what the economic fallout will be?
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Bigger than the disease by a big margin.

I just noted in the economics thread that I expect $20-30 trillion dollars of wealth to have evaporated, and I didn't even add in commodities, all of which have been savaged, so maybe a lot more.
 
Birhanau Legese of Ethiopia won the Tokyo marathon today. It was a job made much easier for him because he only had to bear about 200 other participants whereas 38,000 had been told they couldn’t compete because of the coronavirus and .... wait a minute.... Ethiopia? Isn’t the head of WHO also from Ethiopia!?! It all makes sense now! Open your eyes sheeples!
 
a_unique_person said:
People in Australia with infections mostly seem to have come from Iran. They have really dropped the ball on this.
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I made the comment on 22 February in a Kiwi forum that if we wanted to stay away from covid-19, we'd need to shut the borders immediately.

We've been exactly the same - did not start screening Iranians until 27th Feb. Italians still not being screened.

As my good pal Jesus used to say, "As ye sow, so shall ye reap". We might find the harvest isn't that flash.

That said, I'm not sure any country has handled this with a lot of credit.
 
A cluster of unknown origin in Washington State is likely:

https://apnews.com/f175d89567a26d59cab27725c9e8a0d7

Dr. Frank Riedo, medical director of Infection Control at Evergreen, said local hospitals are seeing people with severe coronavirus symptoms but it’s probable that there are more cases in the community.

“This is the tip of the iceberg,” he said.
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One is a Life Care worker, a woman in her 40s who is in satisfactory condition at a hospital, and the other is a woman in her 70s and a resident at Life Care who is hospitalized in serious condition.
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“In addition, over 50 individuals associated with Life Care are reportedly ill with respiratory symptoms or hospitalized with pneumonia or other respiratory conditions of unknown cause and are being tested for COVID-19,” Seattle and King County officials said. “Additional positive cases are expected.”
 
Stores around here completely sold out of hand sanitizer. Surprised by that actually. Probably be restocked during the weekdays. Masks obviously also sold out. Might have been for while but I haven't bothered to look. On that note, I can see why people can be a bit untrusting of certain calls to actions by the government. You can't say masks are ineffective, while also urging people not to buy masks so healthcare workers have the supply they need.

No matter how you phrase or look at it, it just doesn't mesh. And people aren't going to listen especially when it is related in that way.
 
angrysoba said:
Yeah, first death in the US. Is that right near you?
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Yep. The whole outbreak is only a couple miles away. Bellevue and Kirkland are next to each other. And I've been to Evergreen Hospital many times following up on a patient the police or fire were exposed to. Also, one of the patients is now in Overlake Hospital. That's in the Kaiser complex. I was a patient there last summer when I had a drug reaction. It's less than two miles away.

Worse, I have to go to Kaiser next week for labs and in a couple of weeks I have an appointment. I see them on a regular basis with my illness.

Even more bad news, a lot of employees from Overlake shop and bank across the street from the hospital, same place I shop and bank. They walk over on break.
 
marting said:
Dr. Frank Riedo, medical director of Infection Control at Evergreen, said local hospitals are seeing people with severe coronavirus symptoms but it’s probable that there are more cases in the community.
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Please tell me its not THAT violently anti-science Evergreen!

Could be as doomed as we are in Hawaii in that case

Oops, looks like a different evergreen.....exhales deeply!
 
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